Recent Political Ventures

“They call him a strongman. He’s a tough person, smart” said Donald Trump  about Viktor Orban during the 2024 Presidential debate. Orban, Prime Minister of Hungary, has recently been visiting the US – to see Trump, the Republican CPAC and the Heritage Foundation. Even after making a speech condemning the mixing of the European and Non-European races Orbán was still thought fit to open the CPAC conference in Texas where Steve Bannon is reported to have described him as “one of the great moral leaders in this world.” At the May 2023 CPAC, which actually took place in Hungary, the Heritage Foundation President praised Orbán's promotion of Christianity, nationalism, and resistance to Woke.  More recently Orban has extended his ambitions to World leadership. He talked with President Putin in Moscow in July 2024 about mediating the Ukraine war, contrary to the position of the EU which stated that he had no mandate to represent it, and Ukraine’s position that all parties should be represented in any talks. He then flew to Beijing and discussed China's possible role in mediation. With Trump at Mar-a-Lago he agreed the need to mediate despite the lack of authority of either conferee to propose anything. Most recently, and oddly, Orban has been promoting economic and military cooperation with the African nation of Chad.

This paper looks at the objective facts of the Orban phenomenon, rather than contributing any more thoughts on the impulses and pathologies of the American Right, and tries to assess the realism of this unusual cult-in-the-making.

Does Hungary Have The Capacity To Be A Broker In World Disputes?

In considering Orban’s hopes of World leadership let’s examine the credentials not only of Orban but of Hungary itself in brokering World events. Hungary’s status in the modern world has in fact been mainly that of a client State. After a lengthy period of division between Christians and Ottoman Muslims, Hungary came under Austrian Habsburg  domination at the end of the 17th century and by the later 19th century had achieved union under an Austro-Hungarian monarchy which allowed it a stake in European politics. However, this stake ceased to exist within 50 years when Hungary lost most of its historical territory and population at the end of the First World War. It allied with the Nazis in World War Two and then became a satellite state of the Soviet Union. The Hungarian revolution of 1956 was crushed by Soviet military force and it remained within the Eastern Bloc until the collapse of Soviet power in 1989. Finally it became a democratic republic, joined NATO in 1999 and the European Union in 2004. Thus, within modern history Hungary has overall not played a significant international role.

Orban entered politics at law school and helped to set up the Fidesz movement  (Alliance of Young Democrats). A Fidesz newspaper that he also helped to set up was funded by the Hungarian Hedge Fund magnate George Soros. Soros also funded him for a scholarship at Oxford. Orban at that time identified as a radical-liberal democrat, aligned with the general student opposition to the Soviet order. He first came to national attention in 1989 when he  made a speech at the anniversary of the 1956 Hungarian Revolution demanding the withdrawal of Soviet troops. However, as the president of Fidesz from 1993, he started to move to the right.  In 1998 he became Prime Minister at the age of 35 as head of a conservative coalition government. In 2010, he returned as Prime minister and by this time his political positions were assuming a clear anti-democratic flavor.

As leader of a Government with a comfortable parliamentary majority he moved  to restrict the press, weaken judicial independence, undermine the party system, and block progressive social reforms, declaring himself a defender of Christian values within the EU, repudiating liberal positions on e.g. multiculturalism, ethnic inclusion, migration and the family. He  forced the closure of the liberal Central European University in Hungary,  founded to support human rights by George Soros, Orban’s early benefactor, whom he now sought to undermine. These political adventures proceeded against a background of opposition to EU policies while accepting significant EU economic aid, some of which is reported to have been channeled to political allies and relatives. For these reasons Orban’s Fidesz party was suspended from the European People's Party (the largest party on the European Parliament) in 2021. 

Do The Society And Economy Of Hungary Justify It As A Model For World Social Or Economic Governance ?

Extreme sections of the US Right, in their yearning for a champion, apparently see Orban and Hungary as a legitimate model for how the US should be governed. But Hungary differs from the US to an extreme degree on many dimensions, including its size, its topography, demography, political system and its economy. For example, Hungary’s population is surprisingly rural, with nearly half of the population living outside the urban areas compared to 20% in the US. Total land area is only about 1% of that of the US, the same size as the State of Indiana, and it is landlocked.

The Hungarian economy is tiny compared with that of the US and its per capita GDP is one quarter of the US average. Despite 15 years of reforms under Orban Hungary's GDP per capita also still ranks significantly below the EU average and accounts for only about 1.2% of the EU's total GDP. Its recent economic performance has been about average for the EU Eastern States, lagging behind leaders such as Czech Republic, Poland and Romania. Progress has been halting, with a burst of inflation in 2023 due to fiscal excesses accompanied by a contraction in GDP. As mentioned, Hungary also relies significantly on EU development funds, to the tune of 2 to 3% of its GDP. Other Eastern European countries have been able to recover more effectively from the legacy of Soviet influence.

Hungary had an impressive history of scientific development originating in the 19th century with the creation of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and the emergence of major scientists. There is however little connection between this and Orban’s ‘illiberal  democracy’ which has encouraged Hungarian scientists to emigrate. While Orban may have achieved success with a broad set of authoritarian economic and social reforms after 2010 these developments have not assisted with problems like emigration.

Its ageing population has been declining steadily during the various periods that Orban has been in office, falling from 10.2 million to about 9.5 million or less than 3% of that of the population of the US at 335 million. This number is about  the same as the population of the State of Michigan or of Los Angeles County, so it is not hard to imagine that the complexities of Government might be correspondingly much less than those of the US. Hungary’s more recent population decline is due largely to the mass emigration of 600,000 or more people, the majority of whom were educated, and under 40 years old.  About one third of Hungarian citizens live abroad, not a signal of social or economic achievement.

The population within Hungary is relatively homogenous, with about 90% ethnic Hungarians and the rest mainly originating from Europe. This is of course completely different from the US with its highly diverse population and large scale immigration. While the US faces a serious problem of immigration Hungary faces a serious problem of emigration. Orban is trying to rebuild its population through social welfare support to large families while still barring ‘non-Europeans’ from entering. The diametrically opposite demographic situation coupled with a relatively large rural population might be expected to result in a far less divisive society than exists in the US with fewer problems for a Government to deal with.

Among facts that might not be appealing to the American right wing if they are actually able to think about it is Hungary’s universal health care, almost fully public education, legal abortion, strict gun control and the fact that nearly half of births are to unmarried women. Its unicameral political system differs drastically from the US system of checks and balances, likely allowing scope for longer tenure in political office which may facilitate but cannot justify authoritarian rule.   

The Relationship With Russia

For many Hungarians the relationship with Russia must be forever scarred by the brutal Soviet invasion of 1956 and yet Hungary is being steered by its leader in the direction of Russian interests and away from those of Europe. In 1956, 150,000 Soviet troops invaded the country. Reportedly, nearly 20,000 Hungarians were killed in the assault and thousands imprisoned. Orban, born in 1963, is too young to remember but that event is surely ingrained in the memory of older Hungarians, as will be Russia’s current assault in the memory of Ukrainians. Yet at the UN Annual Meeting of 2024 the Hungarian delegate seemed to effectively ignore the historic Russian invasion of his country while expecting Ukraine to accept the invasion of theirs. How can Hungary justify leading the charge for European links with Russia while denying the national aspirations of Ukraine in the face of attack by Russia?

What Does This Mean For America’s Right Wing

Why have so many Americans on the Right aspired to follow the ideology of the head of a small European state with such irrelevant experience of global dynamics? Authoritarian rule may be easier to establish in Hungary than in the US. Indeed, governing such a country may be not much more complicated than Governing Michigan. But we should ask ourselves what are the circumstances that justify the need for a small, semi-rural, ethnically and culturally homogeneous country with a simple unicameral governance system to be ruled by an autocrat?  At the same time how unlikely is it that Orban’s ideas on governance can provide a good model for the US, a vastly larger, wealthier, more competitive, diverse and complicated society, with an extensive history of global leadership based on a  democratic system.  Don’t American followers of Mr. Orban have any appreciation of all this and if not, maybe they should seek to be further educated rather than pursuing illusory champions.