By Dr. Shermeen Yousif

The fall of the Syrian regime last December, the weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the death of Hassan Nasrallah, have signaled a substantial erosion of Iran's regional influence. The landscape of the region is changing with the gradual fall of parts of the so-called Shia Crescent —a network of alliances and proxies Tehran has carefully cultivated to expand its regional hegemony. As a term, the Shia Crescent was coined by King Abdulla II of Jordan, describing the increasing political dominance of Shia-majority groups across the Middle East. The peripheries of the Crescent extend to parts of the Middle East where there is Shia presence or dominance, including areas of Yemen, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and the Gulan borders.

These recent developments in Lebanon and Syria represent a significant setback for Iran; the "Shia Crescent," once envisioned as an unbroken arc of influence, appears to be disintegrating with the increasing geopolitical and military pressures. We are currently witnessing a significant geopolitical shift, where Tehran's power, proxies, and territorial alliances have become fragile.

The Emergence

The Shia Crescent emerged with two important political changes in the area: the 1973 convergence of the Alawites and Shia, and later the Islamic revolution in 1979. Another threshold was the foundation of Hezbollah in Lebanon in 1982. The 2003 war in Iraq marked a significant moment when Shias came to power on the political scene; since then, it appears Iraq has become another province of Iran. Another important development was the first Arab Spring protests in 2010, which started in Tunisia and then spread to Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Bahrain. The revolutions led to the toppling of three rulers in Tunisia (2011), Egypt (2011), and Yemen (2012). In addition, protests filled the streets of Iraq, Algeria, Morocco, Jordan, Lebanon, Kuwait, Sudan, and Oman.

Within this Shia Crescent lies the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” a strategic coalition of militias and political entities backed by Iran throughout the Middle East. Established under Tehran's initiative, this axis brings together groups united in their opposition to the US and Israeli influence in the region. Thus, the disintegration of the Shia Crescent resembles the disruption and weakening of the Axis of Resistance.

Iraq and Syria: Pillars of the Shia Crescent

In Iraq, the 2013 protests ignited discontent within the Sunnis, which contributed to the rise of the terrorist Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). The civil unrest enabled the expansion of ISIS over Mosul and Anbar governorates, and the chaos of Syria’s civil war served as a ground and logistical support to ISIS. In response, the Shia reaction and formation of the Popular Mobilization Forces enabled additional Shia control to fight in the Sunni areas and exercise dominance. The rise of ISIS consolidated and legitimized Shia power in Iraq and Syria.  

Meanwhile in Syria, the Russia and Iran-backed counteractions to the rebel forces post-2011 strengthened Shia dominance. In 2013, Mehdi Taeb, an influential and hardline Iranian cleric, addressed a pro-regime student conference, asserting that "Syria is Iran’s 35th province”. This emphasized Syria’s strategic significance to Iran’s geopolitical interests and the extension of Iran’s influence beyond its border.

The era between 2013 and 2019 witnessed a number of changes and escalations in the region, with Shias gaining power in certain countries yet weakening in others. In Syria, the peak of the violence was 2012-2019. The escalation of attacks against the Syrian government in 2012 has led to the assertion that Al-Assad was set to use chemical weapons against its civilians and combatants. The devastation reached unprecedented measures and led to 6.7 million internally displaced Syrians and 5.5 million refugees, as reported by the United Nations.

The Beginning of the Fall

In Iraq, the period following 2019 can be labeled as the dawn of an anti-Iranian awakening, the emergence of resistance against its political influence. Iraqi masses rejected Iranian interference and denounced long-entrenched governmental corruption. These protests represented the first organized and sustained reformation movement against the Iran-backed Iraqi administration. Spanning two years, the resistance was met with state repression and human rights violations, including targeted assassinations, abductions, imprisonment, and torture aimed at suppressing dissent.

Another significant setback to Shia influence was the strategic U.S.-led airstrike that eliminated Qassim Soleimani, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force. Soleimani, who played a central role in advancing Iran's regional agenda through militant proxies, was regarded as a key architect of Tehran's military influence. Such a targeted action not only disrupted Iran’s operations but also served as a strong signal against its expansionist ambitions in the region.

The December escalation in Syria, culminating in the overthrow of the Al-Assad regime, marks a significant turning point in the disintegration of the Shia Crescent project. Intriguingly, Iraq played an active role in supporting and defending the Al-Assad regime at a time when even its closest allies, Russia and Iran, did not show support. This underscores Iraq's deep entanglement in the broader dynamics of Shia power politics.

What’s Next?

Iran faces significant challenges, as its ability to maintain influence and sustain its regional network is increasingly disrupted. This decline can be seen as a positive step toward liberating the region from Tehran's grip—a liberation that challenges Iran’s expansionist goal and opens new possibilities for regional autonomy and improvement.

When contemplating the possibility of a reckoning for Iraq’s corrupt political system, similar to Syria, it seems unlikely. The conditions in Iraq present a unique and complex challenge. Unlike Syria, where internal dissent and external pressures helped topple the regime, Iraq remains firmly under the control of an Iran-backed Shia administration. Tehran's pervasive influence over Iraq’s political, economic, and security apparatus makes the prospect of Syria-like liberation seem distant, at least for now.

Shermeen Yousif is an assistant professor at Florida Atlantic University. As a female academic who witnessed women’s rights issues in the civil unrest of post-war Iraq, she escaped to the United States, where she earned her doctorate. Yousif is an activist and writer who focuses on social and political change in Iraq and the Middle East, as well as feminism and increasing awareness of women's rights in the region.