Today, the Ukraine war dominates the global headlines. After three years of Russian aggression, the war still rages on in Ukraine. The Russian military is making creeping advances to capture more Ukrainian territory. Meanwhile, the US is the largest single donor of aid to Ukraine. As of December 31, 2024, Europe had contributed 132.3 billion euros in given aid, versus 114.2 billion given by the US.[1]

More importantly, it was the US that provided the essential weapons to Ukraine in its war against Russia. It was American air defenses which proved to be critical in defending the Ukrainian cities from Russian attacks.[2]

But after President Zelensky’s debacle with President Trump on February 28 to end the war, the US will not support Ukraine anymore. The meeting was just a setup by President Trump. Then came British Prime Minister Starmer's plan over the weekend at a gathering of European leaders and Zelensky to aid Ukraine against Russian aggression. Zelensky and European leaders want a U.S. 'backstop' to any peace deal. They believe U.S. air power or air defense systems are essential for deterring any future Russian attack but are ready to deploy U.K. and French peacekeepers if a deal can be done.

The Trump administration believes that a minerals deal, giving the US a huge stake in Ukrainian reserves of critical rare earth deposits, would be enough to protect Ukraine.

But the British prime minister Starmer said on March 2 that the mineral deal is not enough on its own. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has clearly warned Zelensky that time is running out for him.[3]

Notwithstanding the new European plan, the question is whether it can be done. The answer is no. There is a prohibitive cost to end the war. Europe cannot afford more military spending because it is facing chronically low growth, high debt loads, and looming tariffs imposed by President Trump. Increasing military spending to 3 percent of GDP is not going to be easy as Europe will have to make unpopular social spending cuts. Another political possibility being considered is loosening fiscal rules to allow for greater defense spending. But Europe’s economy is slowing and its competitiveness is declining. [4] Simply put, Europe is declining and does not have the money to immediately give Ukraine. Also, Europe does not have a leadership to convince its people to make the required huge sacrifices. Realpolitik logic requires a reset of American foreign policy. The US has focused on Russia, NATO, and Europe for too long while the real challenge resides elsewhere. In the future, the US will surely downgrade NATO even if it continues as a defense alliance. Too bad for Europe.

The Trump administration has now made it clear, and rightly so, that Europe must shoulder the responsibility for its security and that of Ukraine. The US is now going to focus on a showdown with China. Russia is a declining power while China is a rising one. It is in the national interest of the US to tackle the immense challenge posed by China, which is now a formidable adversary. China is now beating the US in many high technology sectors which requires a massive deployment of resources to close the gap. Hence the new trade tariffs by the Trump administration. At least, there is a rude awakening in the US that it is no longer the sole superpower, and that China is fast developing great power out to replace the country that has long dominated the world. There is now a rest of American foreign policy. Whether the US can successfully meet these challenges remains to be seen, however.

Dr. Sohail Mahmood is a political analyst in Chapel Hill, NC.

[1] Rob Crilly and Miriam Kuepper, Trump savages Zelensky after he says deal with Russia is 'very far away', Mail online, March 3, 2025, Trump savages Zelensky after he says deal with Russia is 'very far away' | Daily Mail Online

[2] Ibid

[3] Rob Crilly and Miriam Kuepper, Trump savages Zelensky after he says deal with Russia is 'very far away', Mail online, March 3, 2025, Trump savages Zelensky after he says deal with Russia is 'very far away' | Daily Mail Online

[4]  Bernhard Warner, Europe Faces a Huge Bill to Defend Ukraine. Investors Are Thrilled, New York Times, March 3, 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/03/business/dealbook/europe-ukraine-defense-stock-market.html