On April 22, in a deadly attack in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir (IAK), some 26 tourists were killed. A hitherto unknown entity, the "Kashmir Resistance," claimed responsibility for the attack as a protest against demographic changes in the region. Attacks targeting tourists in IAK have been rare. The last deadly incident took place in June 2024 when at least nine people were killed. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump called Indian Prime Minister Modi to quickly offer "full support to India to bring to justice the perpetrators of this heinous attack”. Other foreign leaders, including EU chief Ursula von der Leyen, also condemned the attack. [i]

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on April 24 vowed to pursue and punish attackers and their backers behind the attack on tourists in the Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir's Pahalgam area.

Modi stated: "We will pursue them to the ends of the earth," Modi said, referring to the attackers, without referring to their identities or naming Pakistan.

Police in IAK published notices on April 24, naming three suspected attackers "involved in" the attack and announced rewards for information leading to their arrest.

Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said on April 23 that a cabinet committee on security was briefed on the cross-border linkages of the attack, the worst on civilians in the country in nearly two decades. Misri, the top diplomat in India's foreign ministry, did not offer any proof of the linkages or provide any more details.

Modi has also called for an all-party meeting with opposition parties to brief them on the government's response to the attack. [ii]

The Pahalgam attack is seen as a setback to what Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have projected as a major achievement in revoking the special status Jammu and Kashmir state enjoyed and bringing peace and development to the long-troubled Muslim-majority region. [iii]

In the wake of the Pahalgam attack, India took unprecedented strong actions against Pakistan. But diplomatic relations between the two countries were weak even before the latest measures were announced, as Pakistan had expelled India's envoy and not posted its ambassador in New Delhi after India revoked the semi-autonomous status of Kashmir in 2019. The latest actions are: [iv]

1. Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty

Effective immediately, India has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960, a World Bank-brokered agreement that governs the sharing of rivers between India and Pakistan. Misri stated the suspension will remain in force until Pakistan "credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism."

The treaty grants India control over the three eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) while Pakistan controls the three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab). Despite decades of conflict, the treaty has withstood two wars between the neighbors since then and severe strains in ties at other times. It was indeed once a sign of normalized relations between India and Pakistan. 

2. Closure of Attari-Wagah Border Crossing

India has ordered the closure of the Integrated Check Post at Attari, effectively halting all movement across the Attari-Wagah land route. Pakistani nationals who have crossed into India with valid endorsements have been instructed to return by May 1, 2025.

3. Ban on Pakistani Nationals Under SAARC Visas

India has revoked all SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme (SVES) privileges for Pakistani citizens. All SVES visas previously issued to Pakistani nationals are now deemed cancelled, and those currently in India under this visa scheme have been given 48 hours to leave.

4. Expulsion of Pakistani Military Advisors

New Delhi has declared all Pakistani military, naval, and air advisors posted at the Pakistani High Commission as persona non grata, ordering them to leave India within one week. In reciprocity, India will withdraw its defense advisors from the Indian High Commission in Islamabad.

5. Reduction in Diplomatic Presence

India has directed Pakistan to reduce the staff strength at its High Commission in New Delhi from the current 55 to 30. India will mirror this downsizing in its diplomatic mission in Islamabad, with the changes expected to take effect by May 1, 2025.

These measures represent a significant escalation in bilateral tensions between the two nuclear-armed South Asian rivals. Meanwhile, Pakistan has condemned the violence and expressed condolences but dismissed any involvement in the attack.

A strong response was expected as sharp Indian comments have inflamed ties between the nuclear-armed rivals further.

On April 24, 2025, the military-dominated civilian Sharif Government “warned that any attempt by India to block water flow into Pakistan would be treated as an act of war”. A statement issued by the Prime Minister’s Office expressed concern over the loss of lives and termed India’s subsequent measures “unilateral, unjust, politically motivated, extremely irresponsible, and devoid of legal merit.” The statement said that India’s response violates international norms, United Nations Security Council resolutions, and bilateral agreements.

The committee also rejected India’s announcement to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), calling it a binding international accord with no clause allowing unilateral suspension.

"Water is a vital national interest of Pakistan, a lifeline for its 240 million people, and its availability will be safeguarded at all costs," the statement read. "Any attempt to stop or divert Pakistan’s water will be responded to with full force across the complete spectrum of national power." Pakistan took the following actions: [v]

1.     India’s unilateral suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty rejected.

2.     Any diversion of Pakistan’s water is to be treated as an act of war.

3.     Wagah Border closed to all Indian land transit with immediate effect.

4.     Airspace to all Indian-owned or operated flights closed.

5.     The 1972 Simla Agreement could be suspended.

6.     SAARC visa exemption facility for Indian nationals cancelled.

7.     Indian nationals in Pakistan are ordered to leave within 48 hours.

8.     Indian defense advisers declared persona non grata.

9.     The Indian High Commission staff in Islamabad is limited to 30 persons.

10.  All forms of trade with India suspended, including via third countries.

As expected, in response to Indian allegations of Pakistan’s involvement in the Pahalgam attack, very sharp attacks were made on India by Pakistan’s leaders. Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said on April 24, 2025, that Islamabad has evidence and intelligence that armed foreign nationals arrived in Srinagar. Dar urged India to share evidence with the world if Pakistan is involved in the Pahalgam attack in Pacinian intelligence agencies have kept these people in Srinagar,” he added. The foreign minister said the Indian spy agencies were supporting the foreigners who “are trying to export IEDs (improvised explosive devices)”. He said Pakistan’s armed forces were ready to respond to any Indian aggression. Pakistan warned that any move by India to divert the flow of water lawfully belonging to Pakistan will be "considered an act of war".

Today, India's government blames Pakistan for the attack, a claim that Islamabad vehemently denies and also terms as a "false flag operation".

Recalling the capture of an Indian pilot by Pakistan in 2019, Dar said India to be given a befitting response if it resorted to any misadventure. Dar also warned that Pakistan would respond in kind if India withdrew security from Pakistan's embassy in India. He also warned that Pakistan has the option to suspend the Shimla agreement in response to India’s move against the Indus Waters Treaty. “We will take our friends in confidence. Pakistan is fully prepared,” he said, adding that the World Bank will also be apprised of India’s announcement. He said the decisions taken by the NSC will be handed over to the Indian envoy as a demarche. [vi]

Defense Minister Asif lashed out at Modi, saying that “a certified terrorist ruler” like him was not present in any country of the world. He said leaders of militant outfits, Tehrik Taliban Pakistan and Baluchistan Liberation Army, were present in India, accusing India of sponsoring terrorism in Pakistan. Asif also revealed that it was planning to carry out terror incidents in Pakistani cities. “If our citizens are attacked, then Indian citizens will not remain safe as well,” he warned. “Let us make it clear that we are ready to deal with such terrorism,” he added. [vii]

Previously, the historic Kashmir dispute has spurred bitter animosity and military conflict between Pakistan and India, the nuclear-armed neighbors. The current tit-for-tat actions between Pakistan will further strain an already strained relationship. The Kashmir dispute is historic and therefore, it isn’t easily resolvable by both governments in Power in India and Pakistan. Only a facilitator, like the USA, can help resolve the age-old conflict. Nothing else would do. Whether the Trump administration is even interested is a different matter altogether. But having said that, it is hoped the Trump administration will intervene to resolve the dispute and hence peace to South Asia. Without a solution to the Kashmir dispute, peace in South Asia is not achievable. Simple as that.

Dr. Sohail Mahmood is a political analyst in Chapel Hill, NC.

[i]  Azaz Syed, “IIOJK attack: Pakistan expresses concern, extends condolences to victims' families”, The News, April 23, 2025, https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/1304298-iiojk-attack-pakistan-expresses-concern-extends-condolences-to-victims-families

[ii] Narendra Modi vows to pursue, punish Pahalgam attackers, Reuters, April 24, 2025

https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/1304677-pm-narendra-modi-vows-to-pursue-punish-pahalgam-attackers

[iii] Ibid

[iv] Indus Waters Treaty: Five actions India has taken against Pakistan, Express Tribune, April 24, 2025, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2541850/these-are-the-5-actions-india-has-taken-against-pakistan