Much earlier, Israel conducted a wave of attacks on Iran in June 2025, targeting several senior military officials and nuclear scientists, as well as nuclear facilities. The US then joined the 12-day war to bombard three nuclear sites in Iran. The war came on the eve of a round of planned negotiations between the US and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program. Earlier, on January 27, amid mounting tensions between the US and Iran, US President Trump had shown that the US was considering an attack against Iran in response to Tehran’s crackdown on protesters, which had left thousands of people dead. Trump had sent the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier to the region.[i]

Amid growing fears of a new war, a commander from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had issued a warning to his country’s neighbors for not allowing their territory to be used against Iran. Akbarzadeh, political deputy of the IRGC’s naval forces, said that they will then be considered “hostile.” Iran’s currency falls to a record low against the dollar amid rising tensions. Since the conflict, Trump has reiterated demands that Iran dismantle its nuclear program and halt uranium enrichment, but talks have not resumed. But while the US military builds up its presence in the region, Iran has warned that it would retaliate if an attack were launched. Iran had warned that the consequences of a strike on Iran could affect the region.[ii]

On January 28, the Trump administration said that all options, including military action, remain on the table in dealing with Iran, as the US and Israel look to change Tehran’s ruling system. Iranian officials had warned that any US attack would draw a “swift and comprehensive” response.

The US military had also announced a major multi-day exercise in the Middle East, sharply rising tensions after weeks of unrest inside Iran, triggered by anti-government protests that began in late December.

The US Central Command said the drills would “demonstrate the ability to deploy, disperse, and sustain combat airpower across” the Middle East, underscoring operational readiness across multiple locations.

President Trump said earlier that the US had an “armada” heading toward Iran, though he added that he hoped it would not be used. The warships began deploying from the Asia-Pacific region earlier this month as tensions rose over Iran’s crackdown on protests.

Trump had previously threatened to intervene if Iranian authorities continued to kill protesters, but said the demonstrations had since abated. He said he had been told that killings were subsiding and that there was currently no plan to execute prisoners.

In addition to the carrier and warships, the US had moved fighter jets and air-defense systems to the region. The US military said the exercise would show its ability to deploy and sustain airpower across the Middle East. Meanwhile, a senior Iranian official said that Tehran would view any attack as an “all-out war against us.”

Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) said that it would not allow its airspace, territory, or territorial waters to be used for any hostile military actions against Iran. The US military’s Air Base is a key hub for US Air Force operations in the region.[iii]

By February 26, the US had assembled an armada within striking distance of Iran, including the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group. The USS Gerald R. Ford and its escorts also headed to the region. The two ships together could carry more than 5,000 personnel and 150 planes.

Earlier, on February 23, Iranian students defied authorities with protests for a third day, weeks after security forces crushed mass unrest with thousands killed, and as the US weighs possible air strikes against the Islamic Republic.[iv] In a new sign of the mounting tension in the Middle East, the US began pulling non-essential personnel and family members from the embassy in Beirut. President  Trump had repeatedly threatened Iran since major nationwide protests across the country in January, saying that "really bad things will happen" if talks between the countries fail to produce a deal.

The Trump administration wanted Iran to give up much of its nuclear program, which it believes is aimed at building a bomb, limit the range of its missiles to short distances, and stop supporting groups it backs in the Middle East. It has built up forces across the Middle East, putting increased pressure on Iran as it weighs its response to US demands amid ongoing talks.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei then faced the gravest crisis of his 36-year tenure, with an economy struggling under international sanctions and growing unrest that erupted into major protests in January. On February 23, Iranian President Pezeshkian said negotiations with the U.S. had "yielded encouraging signals" even as a second U.S. aircraft carrier headed towards the Middle East.

Trump has not laid out in detail his thinking on any potential strike against Iran. There was still no "unified support" within the administration to go ahead with an attack.[v]

In an important development, the media had reported Pentagon concerns about the intended war against Iran. Alexander Ward, Lara Seligman, and Shelby Holliday, in their article entitled “Pentagon Flags Risks of a Major Operation Against Iran’ published in the Wall Street Journal on February 23, said that the Pentagon had raised concerns to President Trump about an “extended military campaign against Iran, recommending that war plans being considered carry risks including US and allied casualties, depleted air defenses, and an overtaxed force”.[vi]

The warnings had been voiced by Gen. Caine, the chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, within the Defense Department and during meetings of the National Security Council, current and former officials said, but other Pentagon leaders had also noted similar concerns.[vii]

As expected, on February 24, President  Trump lashed out at media reports stating that General Caine had warned him of potential risks of attacking Iran, including becoming entangled in a prolonged conflict and the possibility of US casualties. Trump responded to the reports in a social media post earlier, saying that Caine believed a war with Iran, which the president had threatened with a military attack if it did not accept a series of demands, could be “easily won. ”..[viii]

It was clear that President Trump had been mulling an attack on Iran for weeks, concentrating an enormous array of US forces in the Middle East in preparation for a war.[ix]

Julian E. Barnes, David E. Sanger, Tyler Pager, and Eric Schmitt, in their article, “Trump Considers Targeted Strike Against Iran, Followed by Larger Attack, " The New York Times, February 22, 2026, said that:[x]

The top negotiators plan to meet in Geneva on Thursday for final talks to debate a new proposal that could create an off-ramp as two carrier groups massed within striking distance of Iran. President Trump has told advisers that if diplomacy or any initial targeted U.S. attack does not lead Iran to give in to his demands that it give up its nuclear program, he will consider a much bigger attack in the coming months intended to drive that country’s leaders from power, people briefed on internal administration deliberations said. Negotiators from the United States and Iran are scheduled to meet in Geneva on Thursday for the final negotiations to avoid a military conflict. But Mr. Trump has been weighing options for U.S. action if the negotiations fail. Though no final decisions have been made, advisers said, Mr. Trump has been leaning toward conducting a first strike in the coming days intended to prove to Iran’s leaders that they must be willing to agree to give up the ability to make a nuclear weapon.

Trump was being encouraged to strike Iran by many hawkish right-wing leaders who wanted strong US action resulting in regime change in Iran. They wanted nothing less. Retired General Keane said that the US and Israel have a historic opportunity for regime change in Iran. The US and Israel have a historic opportunity to bring about the collapse of Iran’s current government rather than extend its life through negotiations.

“In my judgment, we should do nothing to extend the life of this regime when we have a historic opportunity right now, given that it is so weak, to set the conditions for a regime collapse. We have never been in this position in 46 years,” said the former vice chief of staff of the US Army and senior strategic analyst. Iran has lied to the US for decades, and negotiating with Tehran only “throws them a lifeline,” he argued, adding that Tehran’s government is weak, making now the right moment to set conditions for its collapse. He said that “if Tehran-Washington negotiations did not produce a substantive deal, Iran should be added to a comprehensive list of targets in a possible military operation, which he believes is likely. Keane suggested that “if Iran’s government fell and was replaced with one more aligned with US interests, the region could see enduring peace and stability.” He acknowledged “Iran keeps some capacity for retaliation and said the US is positioning resources in the region to protect its bases and Israel.[xi]

President Trump said on February 19 that he was giving Iran 10 days to reach an agreement over its nuclear program or face military action. The US is preparing for the possibility of sustained, weeks-long operations against Iran if Trump orders an attack, Reuters reported on February 13.

Meanwhile, Iran is making desperate preparations to defend itself from American and Israeli attacks. It is seeking help from Russia and China. Iran is close to a deal with China to purchase anti-ship cruise missiles, according to six people with knowledge of the negotiations, just as the United States deploys a vast naval force near the Iranian coast ahead of possible strikes on the Islamic Republic.

The deal for the Chinese-made CM-302 missiles is near completion, though no delivery date has been agreed, the people said. The supersonic missiles have a range of about 290 kilometers and are designed to evade shipborne defenses by flying low and fast. Their deployment would significantly enhance Iran’s strike capabilities and pose a threat to U.S. naval forces in the region, two weapons experts said.

Negotiations with China to buy the missile weapons systems, which began at least two years ago, accelerated sharply after the 12-day war between Israel and Iran in June. As talks entered their final stages last summer, senior Iranian military and government officials travelled to China, including Massoud Oraei, Iran’s deputy defense minister.[xii]

The missiles would be among the most advanced military hardware transferred to Iran by China and would defy a UN weapons embargo first imposed in 2006. The sanctions were suspended in 2015 as part of a nuclear deal with the US and allies and then reimposed last September.

The potential sale would underscore deepening military ties between China and Iran at a moment of heightened regional tension, complicating US efforts to curb Iran’s missile program and nuclear activities. It would also signal China’s growing willingness to assert itself in a region long dominated by U.S. military might.

China, Iran, and Russia hold annual joint naval exercises, and last year the US Treasury Department sanctioned several Chinese entities for supplying chemical precursors to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for use in its ballistic missile program. China rejected those allegations, saying it was unaware of the cases cited in the sanctions and that it strictly enforces export controls on dual-use products.

While hosting Iranian President Pezeshkian for a military parade in Beijing in September, Chinese President Xi Jinping told the Iranian leader that "China supports Iran in safeguarding sovereignty, territorial integrity and national dignity.”

China joined Russia and Iran in a joint letter on October 18, saying that they believed the decision to reimpose sanctions was flawed.

The CM-302 purchase would be a significant improvement in an Iranian arsenal depleted by last year’s war. China’s state-owned China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC) markets the CM-302 as the world’s best anti-ship missile, capable of sinking an aircraft carrier or destroyer. The weapons system can be mounted on ships, planes, or mobile ground vehicles. It can also take out targets on land.

Iran is also in discussions to buy Chinese surface-to-air missile systems, so-called MANPADS, anti-ballistic weapons, and anti-satellite weapons, the six people said. China was a major arms supplier to Iran in the 1980s, but large-scale weapons transfers dwindled by the late 1990s under international pressure. In recent years, U.S. officials have accused Chinese companies of providing missile-related materials to Iran but have not publicly accused them of supplying complete missile systems.[xiii]

Meanwhile, President Trump was growing increasingly frustrated with constraints on using military force against Iran. Military planners had advised that any strike on Tehran’s assets would not deliver a decisive, one-off blow and could instead escalate into a wider, protracted conflict in the Middle East. Internal discussions had focused on the risks of retaliation and the possibility that limited strikes would fail to significantly degrade Iran’s capabilities, potentially drawing the United States into a broader regional confrontation.[xiv]

In March, the US intelligence community assessed that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon. In June, the Trump administration nevertheless launched airstrikes targeting Iran’s nuclear program.

Despite President Trump having repeatedly assured that those June airstrikes had “obliterated” its program, the US was contemplating more strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. President Trump and his team had rarely provided consistent rationales for using military force. The administration had repeatedly cited Iran’s potential nuclear threat while floating the potential military force if Tehran did not cut a deal. But it was just eight months ago that Trump declared Iran’s nuclear program to have been “obliterated.”[xv]

It was not about highlighting the success of a past mission but rather about building the case for a future one. Earlier,  when Trump was first threatened to strike Iran again, the stated reason was that Tehran was killing protesters. But then the stated case is much more focused on nuclear issues.

Earlier, when White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt was asked last week why the US might have to strike Iran again even after its nuclear program was supposedly “obliterated,” she responded: “Well, there are many reasons and arguments that one could make for a strike against Iran.” The administration was still searching for a logically consistent one.[xvi]

The Trump administration still did not have a good enough rationale for striking Iran again. It kept on making different explanations of its actions.

Meanwhile, Kevin Liptak, Kylie Atwood, Zachary Cohen, Jennifer Hansler, in their excellent article “Trump confronts his 3 main options on Iran — from diplomacy to trying to topple a regime’, published in CNN on February 24, had argued that:[xvii]

After ordering the largest American military buildup in the Middle East since the onset of the Iraq War, President Donald Trump now has a decision to make on Iran. The options before him now appear well established, confirmed in vague terms by the president himself during informal question-and-answer sessions over the last several weeks and described in more detail by people familiar with the matter. They range widely, with some carrying significant risks, and he hears sometimes conflicting advice from allies, advisers, and foreign counterparts…Top White House officials continue to say Trump’s preference is to secure a deal with Iran that avoids any military confrontation. His envoy, Steve Witkoff, and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, have been conducting indirect talks with Iranian officials over the past several weeks and will return to Geneva, Switzerland, on Thursday for another round. Both men have encouraged the president to allow time to see whether a deal is possible, though Witkoff said Saturday that Trump is “curious” as to why Iran has not “capitulated” in negotiations. Each side has drawn red lines, and some direct conflict. Trump says Iran should not be allowed to enrich any uranium. Iran says that it is its right, and insists its nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes. The Iranians are still working on a proposal that might bridge that ….US military personnel in the region are prepared to execute a range of operations should Trump give the order. The US military has the assets in place to conduct any of the potential strike options and has been making logistical preparations in the event Trump gives a final order…. If diplomacy fails, Trump could launch a far larger operation meant to topple the Iranian regime. There is already plenty of firepower positioned around Iran to carry out even the most extreme options available to the president…Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Dan Caine and other military leaders have raised concerns about the scale, complexity, and potential for US casualties that could result from a major, extended military operation against Iran, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter. He and others inside the Pentagon have also warned about the potential strain such an operation would put on service members and assets deployed in the region, as well as how a protracted military campaign could further impact US weapons stockpiles, particularly as it relates to arms used in support of Israel and Ukraine,…Still, any strikes intended to seriously threaten the regime’s future hinge, in large part, on understanding what comes next. The Trump administration does not appear to have a clear picture of who will replace the leadership if the US successfully conducts regime change, and its visibility inside the country’s opposition groups appears limited. Nor has Trump received any firm guarantee that even a massive US military operation inside Iran would result in the regime’s ouster. That lack of certainty has informed intensive sessions inside the White House Situation Room in recent days, as Trump debates his options. Many on Trump’s team are hopeful — if not entirely optimistic — that diplomacy will prevail, even if the outlines of an acceptable deal are still unclear. Still others in Trump’s ear have insisted Iran is badly weakened, and the time for action is now. Now, at the brink. That is how we arrived at the brink, an inadvertent sequence of events and choices leaving little maneuvering room for Washington or Tehran. Short of a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough, which is unlikely, what happens next will be in the hands of Trump and Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, neither of whom — at this moment — seems prepared to build an offramp.

President Trump’s decision to order airstrikes against Iran hinged in part on the judgment of Trump’s special envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, about whether Tehran was stalling over a deal to relinquish its capacity to produce nuclear weapons, according to people familiar with the matter.

A final round of negotiations was held in February in Geneva. Yet ahead of what could be the final negotiating session, there were indications that positions were hardening.

Witkoff said that Trump’s directive was to ensure Iran would keep zero nuclear enrichment capability – only for Iran’s foreign minister, Araghchi, to say on CBS’s Face the Nation that Tehran was not prepared to relinquish enrichment.[xviii]

Trump said that he would rather have a deal than not, also warned the Iranian regime that if it doesn’t make a deal, “it will be a very bad day for that Country and, very sadly, its people, because they are great and wonderful, and something like this should never have happened to them”.[xix]

Neither Kushner nor Witkoff was a professional and should not have been put in charge of sensitive and delicate negotiations with Iran. But President Trump thinks otherwise.

Meanwhile, both countries had engaged in shows of military force, with the US bolstering its military assets in the Middle East over the weekend. On February 24, the US partially evacuated its embassy in Beirut after a security review on the risks of military escalation in the region.[xx]

On February 26, negotiators from Iran and the US held the third round of indirect nuclear talks in Geneva, Switzerland. Tehran says that “important” and “practical” proposals were advanced during negotiations, according to Iran. The discussions take place amid a massive US military build-up in the Middle East, with several countries warning their citizens to leave Iran due to the threat of possible US attacks. During his State of the Union address on February 24, President Trump struck a belligerent tone but said he would prefer to resolve the standoff diplomatically. Iran has also said it wants to find a diplomatic solution, but will defend itself if the US resorts to military action. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said Iran remained “crystal clear” that it would “under no circumstances ever develop a nuclear weapon”, while also recognizing the right of Iran’s people to the benefits of “peaceful nuclear technology”.[xxi]

Ali Harb, in his article, “Diplomacy may have a chance of success,’ said that:[xxii]

Despite the threats and counter-threats, the US and Iran are interested in diplomacy and prefer to make a deal. Reading between the lines coming from both Tehran and Washington, sounds like diplomacy may have a chance of success, …Iran has sent proposals to the US, and the two sides have been engaging on the content…  Iran is willing to make nuclear concessions beyond the 2015 multilateral deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) so Trump can have a better agreement than former President Obama. Iranian proposal during the indirect talks in Geneva focused on the lifting of US sanctions and dealing with US concerns… their proposal included reducing uranium stockpiles to low-enrichment levels under IAEA supervision and included an aspect of achieving common interests, especially in the economic dimension.

Shamkhani, a prominent adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, has suggested that an agreement can be reached if the negotiations focus solely on Iran’s commitment not to develop nuclear weapons. He added that the Iranian foreign minister Araghchi, who is leading the talks for Tehran, has “sufficient support and authority to secure this agreement.” If potential military action aims to pressure Iran to make concessions in nuclear negotiations, it’s not clear whether limited strikes would work. He said: [xxiii]

If the goal is to remove Iran’s leaders, that will commit the US to a larger, longer military campaign. There has been no public sign of planning for what would come next, including the potential for chaos in Iran. There is also uncertainty about what any military action could mean for the wider region. Tehran could retaliate against the American-allied nations of the Persian Gulf or Israel. Oil prices have risen in recent days in part due to those concerns, with benchmark Brent crude now around $70 a barrel. Iran, in the last round of talks, said it briefly halted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas, and is situated at the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf.

In an official statement from Iran’s foreign ministry, it said that:[xxiv]

Both in the nuclear field and on the lifting of sanctions, especially important and practical proposals were put forward, and both sides pursued the discussions with great seriousness. We are confident. We must continue and see. This is a process. Contradictory statements from foreign media and some American officials continue to fuel doubts. For us, the focus is on the outcome. We have been consistent, and our positions have been consistent with our words. Today’s talks were profoundly serious, and we hope that tonight we will see the continuation of talks on the lifting of sanctions and the nuclear issue in a practical manner.

While Trump had said he preferred to solve the crisis through diplomacy, he has also said he is considering a limited strike on Iran to pressure its leaders to accept a deal.

Trump, however, has done little to explain what he is demanding in the negotiations and why there could be a need to take military action now, eight months after the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities during a war between Israel and Iran.

Iran had rejected the US demand to stop the enrichment of uranium in its territory, but there have been indications that it is prepared to offer some concessions about its nuclear program.

In recent weeks, the US has sent thousands of troops and what Trump has described as an "armada" to the region, including two aircraft carriers along with other warships, as well as fighter jets and refueling planes.

Trump first threatened to bomb Iran last month as security forces brutally repressed anti-government protests, killing thousands of people. But since then, his focus has turned to Iran's nuclear program, which has been at the center of a long-running dispute with the West.

For decades, the US and Israel have accused Iran of trying to secretly develop a nuclear weapon. Iran insists its program is only for peaceful purposes, though the country is the only non-nuclear-armed state to have enriched uranium at a near weapons-grade level.[xxv]

In his State of the Union speech to Congress on February 24, Trump briefly and vaguely talked about the tensions with Iran, without clearly laying out the case for strikes.

He said Iran was working to build missiles that would "soon" be capable of reaching the US, without giving details. He also accused the country of trying to "start all over again" with a nuclear weapons program following last year's strikes and said he could not allow the "world's number one sponsor of terror... to have a nuclear weapon".

The US struck three nuclear sites in Iran last June, as it joined Israel in its bombing campaign. At the time, Trump said the facilities had been "obliterated".

Iran said that its enrichment activity stopped after the attacks, although it has not allowed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors to access the damaged sites.

"They want to make a deal," Trump said, "but we haven't heard those secret words: 'We will never have a nuclear weapon'."

Hours before the speech, however, the Iranian foreign minister posted on social media that Iran would "under no circumstances ever develop a nuclear weapon". Araghchi also said there was a "historic opportunity to strike an unprecedented agreement that addresses mutual concerns and achieves mutual interests".

Reacting to Trump's address, an Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson accused the US of repeating "big lies" about its nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and the number of protesters killed in the crackdown.

Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran "will under no circumstances ever develop a nuclear weapon."

Iran's proposals have not been made public. Still, the discussions in Geneva could have included the creation of a regional consortium for uranium enrichment, which had been raised in previous negotiations, as well as ideas about what to do with Iran's roughly 400kg (880lb) stockpile of highly enriched uranium and verification and monitoring mechanisms.

In return, Iran expected the lifting of sanctions that have crippled its economy. Opponents of the regime say any relief would give the clerical rulers a lifeline.

But it stayed unclear which conditions Trump could have found acceptable for a deal. Iran has already rejected discussing limits to the country's ballistic missile program and ending its support for proxies in the region - an alliance Tehran calls the "Axis of Resistance" that includes Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, militias in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen.

The Trump administration still did not have a sufficient rationale for striking Iran again. It kept offering different explanations for its actions.

Reports in US media had already suggested that Trump was considering a first strike in the coming days on the IRGC or nuclear sites to pressure the country's leaders. If negotiations failed, according to the reports, the president might go as far as ordering a campaign to topple the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.

General Caine, the Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned that strikes against Iran could be risky, potentially drawing the US into a prolonged conflict, although Trump has insisted that Caine believes it would be "easily won".

Iran, meanwhile, had threatened to respond to any attack by striking American military assets in the Middle East and Israel. US-allied countries in the region were concerned that an attack on Iran could lead to a wider conflict and have warned that air power alone will not be able to change the country's leadership. In hindsight, the Trump administration did not take these Iranian threats seriously.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, however, had warned against a deal that does not include Iran's ballistic missiles and its proxies. Netanyahu has long described Iran as a key threat to Israel and a source of instability in the region.

Analysts believed that the prime minister may be pushing for a campaign to topple the Iranian regime. Israel is believed to have nuclear weapons, although it neither confirms nor denies this.

Earlier, Trump said on February 19 that Iran must reach a deal within 10 to 15 days, warning that “really bad things” would otherwise happen.

Oil prices edged higher as investors assessed whether the talks could avert a military conflict that risks supply disruptions, though higher US crude inventories capped gains.

Araghchi said that Iran aimed to achieve a fair, swift deal but reiterated that it would not forgo its right to peaceful nuclear technology. Washington views nuclear enrichment inside Iran as a potential pathway to nuclear weapons. “A deal is within reach, but only if diplomacy is given priority,” Araghchi said in a statement on X.[xxvi]

On February 22, Arachis said he believed there was still a good chance for "a diplomatic solution based on a win-win game". He said there was no need for a military buildup, adding that it could not pressure the Iranian regime. Iran has always denied seeking the atom bomb. Arachis was the point man for the unsuccessful efforts to resurrect the 2015 deal during US President Biden's 2021-25 administration, until he was replaced with a hardliner. Arachis is a serious professional.[xxvii]

Meanwhile, President Trump was getting impatient with the ongoing negotiations with Iran. He had expressed frustration with negotiators' failure to reach a deal. "They want to make a deal, but we haven't heard those secret words 'We will never have a nuclear weapon'," Trump said in his State of the Union speech on February 24.

Much earlier, in June 2025, the US had joined Israel in striking Iranian nuclear sites. Iran has threatened fierce retaliation if attacked again.

Earlier, the USS Abraham Lincoln and several guided-missile destroyers entered the Middle East. As of February 26, the US military prepared for the possibility of President Trump authorizing military action, the US has assembled its largest concentration of air power in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The USS Gerald Ford, the US Navy’s most advanced aircraft carrier, was expected to arrive within days. The carrier would become the second aircraft carrier in the region. Its arrival would add to the dozens of advanced F-35 and F-22 fighter jets, bombers, and refueling planes already deployed. The buildup would give Trump the choice of sustaining an extended air campaign against Iran, rather than conducting a limited strike like last summer’s operation, when B-2 bombers flew from the US to hit a small number of enrichment sites at Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz.

Notwithstanding the largest US military deployment in the Middle East, there was still a glimmer of hope that a nuclear deal between the US and Iran could now be achieved. The Trump administration did not want to go to war with Iran. But Israel pressured the US to strike Iran.

On February 26, another round of indirect talks between Iranian and US officials ended with a mediator claiming “significant progress” but still no unmistakable evidence that either side was willing to concede enough on their positions to avoid war.

After the conclusion of the talks in Geneva on February 26, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said that further technical talks would be held next week in Vienna and that progress had been “good”.

“These were the most serious and longest talks,” Araghchi said.[xxviii]

The two sides had been at odds over key issues, including uranium enrichment and missiles. The Trump administration had repeatedly emphasized, in lockstep with Israel, that it will not accept any nuclear enrichment taking place on Iranian soil, even at civilian-use levels agreed during the 2015 nuclear deal that Iran agreed with world powers. Trump unilaterally abandoned that deal in 2018.

In the days leading up to the Geneva talks, US officials increasingly focused on Iran’s ballistic missile program, saying the missiles threaten US military bases across the Middle East as well as Israel. Iran has refused to entertain any talks on its conventional weapons. Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, have repeatedly said they will never develop nuclear weapons.

Iranian officials had not publicly discussed all the details of their proposals. Still, they are believed to include diluting part of the country’s 60-percent enriched uranium and keeping the uranium inside the country. Iranian authorities envisage that it could be paired with economic opportunities for the US related to Iranian oil and gas and the purchase of airplanes.

Supreme Leader Khamenei had maintained his tough rhetoric against the US as well, casting doubt on the chances of any agreement. He also said Trump would be unable to overthrow Iran’s government after the US president said regime change would be “the best thing that could happen” in Iran.

In a remarkable set of statements, Araghchi said during an interview that even if Khamenei is killed, the theocratic establishment in Iran would continue because it has legal procedures in place to appoint a successor. Pezeshkian added, “They can cut me, cut anyone. If they hit us, a hundred more like us will come up to run the country.”

Meanwhile, Iran's economic situation was worsening by the day. Rising inflation had gripped the country for more than a decade as a result of a mix of chronic local mismanagement and US and UN sanctions. According to separate reports by the Statistical Centre of Iran and the Central Bank of Iran, inflation has now shot beyond 60 percent. Food inflation was by far the strongest driver at a whopping 105 percent. That included a 207-percent inflation rate for cooking oil, 117 percent for red meat, 108 percent for eggs and dairy products, 113 percent for fruit, and 142 percent for bread and corn. Iran’s national currency, the rial, stood at about 1.66 million rials to the US dollar on February 26, near an all-time low.[xxix]

President Pezeshkian said on February 26 that Khamenei had banned weapons of mass destruction, which "clearly means Tehran won't develop nuclear weapons," reiterating a religious decree issued in the early 2000s.[xxx]

In hindsight, the negotiations were scuttled by the Trump administration, which had then secretly decided with Israel on a plan to wage war on Iran.

In a shocking development, the US-Israel war of choice on Iran began on February 28 with massive U.S. and Israeli bombardments ?of Iran.

Spectacularly, the US-Israeli military had joined Israel and attacked more than 1,000 targets in Iran and killed many of its top officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

On March 4, President Trump told lawmakers it is not yet possible to know the "full scope and duration" of US strikes on Iran. In a letter letting Congress know of the military action, Trump said the threat from Iran had been "untenable" despite efforts to find a diplomatic solution. But lawmakers said they were unclear of Trump's plans after receiving a classified briefing from top officials about the strikes, on the eve of a vote on a war powers resolution that could limit the president's actions.

The US and Israel began striking Iran, and Iran responded by firing missiles and drones at Israel and Gulf states allied to the US.

In the letter, Trump told Senate President Pro Tempore Grassley that Iran "remains one of the largest, if not the largest, state-sponsors of terrorism in the world".

He said it "continues to seek the means to possess and employ nuclear weapons.” “Its array of ballistic, cruise, anti-ship, and other missiles poses a direct threat to and is attacking US forces, commercial vessels, and civilians, as well as those of our allies and partners," the letter added. The president said no US ground forces had been committed to the operation.[xxxi]

Democratic lawmakers and some Republicans questioned whether Trump exceeded his powers by launching strikes without congressional approval. Many have supported efforts to limit Trump's ability to take further action in Iran. Trump has previously conducted military operations without congressional approval, such as the US strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities last year, and the operation to seize Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro in January.

Undoubtedly, President Trump’s actions were unconstitutional, and most Americans were against them.

Meanwhile, the US-Israeli alliance intensified strikes on Iran as markets plunged across Asia. The US and Israel pressed on with their round-the-clock assaults on Iran ?in a campaign that the top US commander said was "ahead of the game plan". Meanwhile, the death toll from US-Israeli attacks on Iran rose to 1,045. [xxxii]

The oil shock was felt as the benchmark Brent crude was at $83.76 a barrel on March 4, as Iran attacked ?ships and energy facilities, closing navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, the world's most important energy trade route, and conduit for a fifth of the world’s oil.[xxxiii]

The Strait of Hormuz has great strategic significance and has appeared as a choke point. It is bounded to the north by Iran and to the south by Oman and the UAE. The corridor is about 33km wide at its narrowest point. In 2025, about twenty million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz per day, which is $600bn worth of energy trade per year. The oil comes not only from Iran, but also from other Gulf states such as Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.[xxxiv] About 3,000 or so ships usually sail through the strait each month. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz was closed because no one dared to go through it, fearing being attacked. Scores of ships had halted in the Gulf. Qatar, one of the world's main LNG producers, has shut production. Iraq has scaled back oil output.

The Strait of Hormuz is bounded to the north by Iran and to the south by Oman and the UAE. The corridor is about 33km wide at its narrowest point, which connects the Gulf with the Arabian Sea. In 2025, about twenty million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz per day, which is $600bn worth of energy trade per year. The oil comes not only from Iran, but also from other Gulf states such as Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.[xxxv] About 3,000 or so ships usually sail through the strait each month.

The Strait was now under the "full control" of Iran's navy, the IRGC said, warning vessels not to transit the waterway. Trump said the US Navy could begin escorting oil tankers through ?the Strait if ?necessary. But shipowners and analysts are uncertain whether that would be enough to stop rising prices or whether the US can spare vessels to do ?so without exposing them to potential attacks. If oil and gas coming from the Strait are cut off, that will have significant ramifications for the oil market. Oil prices had soared back above $100 a barrel, having come down earlier when Trump said ?the war would be over soon. Iran said it will not let oil through the Strait of Hormuz until US and Israeli attacks cease.[xxxvi]

Trump risks political fallout if higher energy prices persist, as his Republican Party tries to keep power in the congressional midterm elections in November.

Meanwhile, Mokhiber, a senior aide to the late Supreme Leader Khamenei, said that Iran has no intention of negotiating with the US and can continue the Middle East war for as long as needed. He said that Iran had "no trust in the Americans, and we have no basis for any negotiations with them", adding that: "We can continue the war as long as we want."

Iran's security chief  Larijani, who was also an adviser to Khamenei, said in a post on X on March 2 that Tehran will not negotiate with the US, in response to a report that Iran is trying to revive negotiations with Washington.

Meanwhile, Iran expanded a retaliatory missile and drone barrage on the fifth day of the war that sent stocks sinking. The war took a growing toll on Lebanon, where Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah has launched drones and rockets at Israel in retaliation for the killing of Iran's supreme leader in the US-Israeli opening strikes. On March 4, the Israeli military called on residents to leave sixteen towns and villages in southern Lebanon, in an "urgent warning" before using force against Hezbollah militants. Israeli attacks killed four in Baalbek in Lebanon. In a throwback to earlier wars, Israel said it was moving troops across the border to create a buffer zone inside Lebanon.

With global energy prices already on the rise over the expanding war, the IRGC declared it has "complete control" of the Strait of Hormuz.

But Trump said the US had "knocked out" Iran's navy, along with its air force and radar systems, and that the US Navy was ready to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.

Israel's military said it launched a "broad wave of strikes across Iran, which had also launched three separate missile barrages at Israel.[xxxvii]

On March 4, Israel said it had launched its latest round of attacks on Tehran, with the country’s defense minister vowing to “crush” the Iranian regime’s capabilities.

Meanwhile, air travel across the Middle East remained severely disrupted, with Qatar Airways, Emirates, and Etihad. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez described the ongoing US and Israeli strikes against Iran as a “disaster.”[xxxviii]

The IRGC said that it has fired 230 drones at several facilities hosting US troops in the Middle East, including a base in Erbil in northern Iraq and the Ali Al Salem Air Base and Camp Arijana in Kuwait. It said the attacks were among its “first powerful steps” in the war, despite Iran having attacked Gulf Arab states for days since Israel and the United States launched their coordinated offensive on Saturday.

Two drones also targeted a US military base and a hotel in Erbil, in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq. A projectile hit Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery, the biggest domestic oil refinery run by Saudi Aramco. Saudi Arabia had shut down operations at the plant several days ago after a fire broke out that was caused by debris from the interception of two Iranian drones. Strikes were also reported in the UAE at the US consulate in Dubai and at a port in the city of Fujairah. The UAE downed three ballistic missiles and 121 drones, while eight drones landed inside the country. The US embassy in Saudi Arabia and the US consulate in the UAE came under drone attacks, and the US authorized nonemergency government personnel to evacuate. Qatar intercepted ten drones and two cruise missiles launched from Iran. Qatar Airways said its flight operations remained “temporarily suspended due to the closure of Qatari airspace.” By now, Iran had begun hitting targets in Israel as well as US military assets in the Gulf states.[xxxix]

The war was by now already more extensive, leading to damage in Iran, Israel, and throughout the Middle East. The Trump administration does not have a war strategy, and its bizarre explanation of why the US attacked Iran bordered on the ridiculous.

Aaron Blake, in his excellent article “The rationale for striking Iran was already a mess. Trump just made it worse,” published in CNN on March 4, covers it brilliantly and argues that: [xl]

The Trump administration’s stated justifications for going to war with Iran were already a jumbled and self-contradictory mess. But on Tuesday, Trump made it even worse — laying waste to the administration’s confusing explanation from Monday. Just a day after Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed that Iran posed an imminent threat — because it would respond to imminent attacks from Israel by striking US forces — Trump went with an entirely different explanation: that Iran was going to launch preemptive strikes against the US on its own. “It was my opinion that they were going to attack first,” the president said. And with that, the botched rollout of the Trump administration’s case for war enters yet another chapter. Rubio had already turned plenty of heads with his claims on Monday. “We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action,” Rubio said. “We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces, and we knew that if we did not preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties. This was problematic for a couple of reasons. For one, it was different from the explanations for why Iran posed an imminent threat that had been offered in the days before the war began. Trump special envoy Steve Witkoff, who was leading negotiations with Tehran, initially claimed Iran was “probably a week away” from having nuclear bomb-making material. Then, Trump, in his State of the Union address last week, claimed Iran would “soon” be able to strike the United States with an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). But those claims didn’t square with either US intelligence or with the administration’s past claims about having “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program just eight months ago. Additionally, Rubio’s explanation made it sound a little like Israel was the tail wagging the dog — the idea that the US was having its decisions about going to war dictated by an ally. The Trump administration on Tuesday set about trying to dispel that notion, saying Rubio’s explanation was not about why the US went to war, period, but why the US went to war when it did. But Trump has now taken exception to that narrative, scrambling his administration’s messaging yet again. When asked on Tuesday whether Israel had forced his hand, he claimed it was Iran that was about to strike. “It was my opinion that they were going to attack first,” Trump said of Iran. “They were going to attack if we did not do it. They were going to attack first. I felt strongly about that. “He added, “And based on the way the negotiation was going, they were going to attack first, and I did not want that to happen. So, if anything, I might have forced Israel’s hand. “Trump then seemed to point to disagreements within his administration on the subject. “We thought, and I thought maybe more so than most — I could ask Marco — but I thought we were going to have a situation where we were going to be attacked,” Trump said. “They were getting ready to attack Israel. They were getting ready to attack others. You see that right now. … So, I was right about that.” Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth chimed in shortly after on social media, saying Trump’s explanation was “100% correct.” And after Trump’s remarks, Rubio on Tuesday afternoon denied that he had attributed any part of the rationale to following Israel. He instead lined up behind the president’s latest explanation. “The bottom line is this: The president determined we were not going to get hit first. It is that simple, guys. We are not going to put American troops in harm’s way,” Rubio told reporters on Capitol Hill. It is difficult to overstate just how much this contradicts Rubio’s version of events and opens a new complex issue. The idea that Iran was about to strike against the US would be the easiest and cleanest justification, if it were substantiated. But that is notably not the justification that Rubio — or anybody else — offered, at least not before Tuesday. Rubio instead pitched a much more complicated, bank-shot theory in which Israel’s imminent action, by extension, made Iranian attacks against the US imminent as well. It is debatable whether that was sufficient justification, but at least it was logically plausible. But it also risked solidifying a narrative that was very un-Trump – one in which he was not the top dog but was instead being led or even coerced into war by Israel. That was already a narrative that had raised concerns in certain circles. (See: Megyn Kelly’s show on Monday.) And we have already seen Trump try to claim credit for killing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, even as his administration has looked to emphasize that Israel undertook part of the mission. So, while it is not exactly a surprise that Trump would overcorrect, he has created a whole new set of problems. The question now will be what intelligence backs up Trump’s assertion. If it does not exist, it raises the prospect that the US will go to war with Trump’s premonition. And the administration is now on at least its fourth different explanation for why Iran posed an imminent threat in less than 10 days, including the two most recent versions that directly contradict one another. Trump is no stranger to throwing things at the wall and seeing what sticks. But it’s something else entirely to be doing that with a subject as serious as the justification for war — especially when US service members have died.

Undoubtedly, the Trump administration’s justifications for President Trump attacking Iran are ludicrous. He simply does not have a rationale or even a coherent strategy for conducting the current war with Iran. As expected, Democratic lawmakers have slammed him, warning the US may be heading for a ground assault and an “open-ended engagement with no end in sight”.

By March 4, Iran had clearly shown that it had no intention of negotiating with the US and could continue the war for as long as needed. Mokhber, a senior aide to the late supreme leader  Ali Khamenei, said that Iran had "no trust in the Americans, and we have no basis for any negotiations with them", adding that: "We can continue the war as long as we want."

Iran's security chief  Larijani, who was also an adviser to the country's former Supreme Leader  Ali Khamenei, said in a post on X  that Tehran will not negotiate with the US, in response to a report that Iran is trying to revive negotiations with Washington.[xli]

The IRGC said Iranian forces had "complete control" of the Strait of Hormuz, and any vessels looking to pass risked damage from missiles or stray drones. Trump said on March 3 that the US Navy was ready to escort oil tankers through the crucial Gulf shipping route.

The IRGC said they had also launched more than forty missiles at US and Israeli targets in a new wave of strikes.

On March 5, it said they had sealed off the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, several governments scrambled to evacuate citizens stranded in the Middle East, where Iran expanded a retaliatory missile and drone barrage that had also sent stocks sinking.

The war was now taking a growing toll on Lebanon, where Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah has launched drones and rockets at Israel in retaliation for the killing of Iran's supreme leader, Khamenei.

On March 4, the Israeli military called on residents to leave sixteen towns and villages in southern Lebanon, in an "urgent warning" before using force against Hezbollah militants. Israeli strikes have killed at least fifty-two people in Lebanon, while the UN said that more than 30,000 people were displaced. Israel said it was moving troops across the border to create a buffer zone inside Lebanon.[xlii]

The IRGC leadership said it has "complete control" of the Strait of Hormuz, the crucial choke point into the Gulf. But Trump said the US had "knocked out" Iran's navy, along with its air force and radar systems, and that the US Navy was ready to escort tankers through the waterway. Trump was t making no sense as he boasted that "just about everything's been knocked out" in Iran, including its navy, air force, and air defense, and said the attacks had killed even leaders who could have taken over. “Most of the people we had in mind are dead," Trump said. "Now we have another group. They may also be dead, based on reports."

A strike on a school in the city of Minab on the first day of the war killed more than 150 people. The US military lost six troops; in Israel, nine people had been killed. At least eight people had died across the Gulf.

Meanwhile, the US and Israel had received lukewarm support, with Western nations limiting involvement to helping Gulf states and repatriating citizens. Canadian Prime Minister Carney, who had backed the strikes, said March 5, that it was time for "rapid de-escalation".[xliii]

Iran’s expanding missile and drone campaign across the Gulf caused concern. Qatar warned on March 4 that “all red lines have already been crossed” as Iran’s retaliation against US-Israeli strikes begins spilling across the region. Iranian attacks had disrupted airports, ports, and commercial activity.[xliv]

Iran’s strategy appeared aimed at raising the cost of the war for Arab states in the hope that they would pressure the US to halt the conflict. So far, Gulf governments have focused on defending their territory and have not allowed US forces to use their airspace or bases to launch attacks on Iran. However, the stance could shift if attacks intensify.

The attacks have also heightened concerns about the safety of the Gulf’s energy infrastructure, which supplies a large share of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas.

Qatar is one of the world’s biggest LNG exporters, and any disruption to its production or shipping routes could quickly ripple through global energy markets. If the conflict begins to threaten energy facilities or shipping lanes near the Strait of Hormuz, it could trigger sharp spikes in oil and gas prices and further destabilize global trade.[xlv]

By now, and as expected, the first issue that is now being extensively debated is whether the US attack on the war was legal. Critics say that the US attacks have exceeded the president's authority and do not follow international law. President Trump has provided varying aims and justifications. He has said he felt Iran was going to strike first and the attack was meant ?to eliminate imminent threats to the US, its military bases overseas, and allies, although he did not provide details, and some claims were not backed by US intelligence reports. Trump also said Iran could obtain a nuclear weapon within one month, but he did not provide evidence, and this contradicted his claims in June that the US military had "obliterated" Iran's nuclear program.[xlvi]

The attacks on Iran ?are pushing the boundaries of Trump's constitutional authority, according to legal experts. Under the US Constitution, the president commands the armed forces and directs foreign relations, but only ?Congress has the power to declare war.

Presidents of both parties have conducted military strikes without congressional approval when it was in the ?national interest, but less intense in duration and scope than what would be considered a war. It is a limit that President Trump may now be testing.

Trump and Defense Secretary Hegseth ?have both described the action as a war, and Hegseth called it "the most lethal, most complex and most-precision aerial operation in history." Trump said it could last five weeks or more ?and cautioned that there would be more US casualties.[xlvii]

Congress has provided authorization for large military operations, such as President George Bush’s invasions of Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003. The War Powers Resolution (WPR) of 1973 acts as a check on presidential power.

Under the WPR, the president can only involve the military in an armed conflict when Congress has declared war or provided specific authority, or ?in response to an attack on US territory or its military. It requires the president to report regularly to Congress, which the administration started to do on March 2. The ?WPR also requires unauthorized military actions to be ended within 60 days unless the deadline is extended.

It provides a procedure for Congress to withdraw the military from a conflict, and members of both ?parties have ?said they plan to put such legislation to a vote this week.

It is highly unlikely such a vote would muster a two-thirds majority needed to override a Trump veto, but some lawmakers said it would put members on the record in an election year. Legal experts said popular opposition might be the main check on Trump's ability to continue the attacks.[xlviii]

Legal experts said many countries will consider the attacks unjustified under the UN Charter, which says that member states must refrain from using force or ?the threat of force against other states. There ?are exceptions when force is authorized ?by the UN Security Council or used in self-defense in response to armed attack; neither applies.

There is also the concept of pre-emptive self-defense, which would allow the US to attack Iran if it had proof of an imminent, overwhelming attack.[xlix]

Undoubtedly, the Trump administration has not met the strict conditions of legal and constitutional requirements. Therefore, the Iranian attacks can be clearly considered as illegal under the US Constitution and international law.

The Republicans were only playing politics with their support of the new war. The American attacks on Iran were unconstitutional and unwarranted.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu had delivered on a career-long ambition to overthrow the Iranian regime, but his collaboration with Trump faces a test as their joint military campaign threatens to drag on, with its goals potentially shifting in the coming weeks.

At the outset of the bombing campaign on February 28, both Trump and Netanyahu said regime change was the goal. But in ?remarks on March 2, Trump did not mention overthrowing Iran's government as his top priority. He now said the US goal was ?to destroy Iran’s missiles and navy, and to stop it from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Hegseth also said at a press conference on March 2 that the operation was not a “so-called regime-change war.”

Netanyahu, by contrast, had called on Iran's citizens to take to the streets and overthrow their rulers on March 2. "We're going to create the conditions, first, for the Iranian people to get control of their destiny," he said. Regime change is one of the aims of Israel.[l]

Israel and the US had now different war goals. Trump and Netanyahu had urged Iranians to rise, but Trump said regime change was not the goal.

Earlier, in the build-up to war, Netanyahu had successfully convinced Trump that it was a “now-or-never moment” to prevent Iran from buying nuclear weapons and destroy its ballistic missile capabilities. Later, Trump said the operation could take “four or five weeks” or “whatever it takes.” Trump faces domestic pressures that could affect his thinking as the war drags on and expands.

The operation was unpopular in the US, with only one in four Americans saying they back American strikes on Iran, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling. With the crisis disrupting shipping and energy production, rising gas prices could become a daily reminder of the affordability crisis facing many Americans. Gas is up eleven cents per gallon in the US, with much higher spikes in global markets suggesting more increases for American consumers.[li]

Notwithstanding the claims of the Trump administration, it desired regime change. Though arguably exceedingly difficult to execute, the US-Israel regime change operation was being planned. Benoit Faucon, Margherita Stancati, and Dov Lieber, in their article “Israel Is Blowing Up Iran’s Police State to Clear the Way for a Revolt”, published in The Wall Street Journal, March 4, 2026, argued that:[lii]

Israel’s military is targeting the Iranian police state that brutally suppressed protests and killed thousands of people, with the hope of clearing the way for a popular revolt to overthrow the Islamic government…. Analysts are skeptical that the strategy will work.

The US was planning to use Kurdish forces in Iraq as part of a ground operation. The Kurdish people, an ethnic minority group numbering 25-30 million across Türkiye, Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Armenia, have long worked with the CIA and the US, particularly in the fight against ISIS. However, there is a history of frustration among Kurdish forces, who feel abandoned by the US, especially after the Trump administration decided to withdraw forces from Syria in 2018. This has led to concerns that the US might once again pull support, adding to the narrative of the Kurds being left to face repercussions alone.

Kurdish leadership had held talks about cooperation against Iranian security forces. Some Kurdish militias based along the Iran-Iraq border had expressed interest in using the current instability following international strikes against Iran’s leadership, with discussions touching on the provision of weapons and intelligence support from US agencies, including the CIA.

Top White House officials had been in active discussions with Kurdish leaders in Iraq about providing them with military support to strike the regime. Iranian Kurdish militants have thousands of soldiers along the Iraq-Iran border with major support in Northern Iraq's Kurdistan region.[liii]

Several Iranian opposition Kurdish groups are based in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region and have been waging a low-level insurgency against Tehran for years. Some have demanded autonomy within Iran, while others are fighting for secession from the country.

The Trump administration was then considering arming Iranian Kurdish opposition groups based in neighboring Iraq, according to reports, in a move that could open a new front in the war on Iran and risk igniting a civil war in Iran.

The possibility of the US supplying weapons to Iranian Kurdish groups and supporting potential cross-border ground attacks in the western part of the country came as the US and Israel wage a massive aerial bombardment of Iran. The US aim would be to stretch Tehran's military resources, weaken the state's grip on power, and foment an uprising inside Iran, a multiethnic country of some 93 million people.

President Trump, on March 3, spoke with the president of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (KDPI), Mustafa Hijri. The KDPI was one of the groups targeted by the IRGC.

However, Iran's clerical rulers, despite the killing of Khamenei and senior military leaders, have not capitulated or fragmented and have kept control of their country. The main goal was to make sure Iran starts losing control of some areas. Thereby, other minorities as well as the broader opposition may be inspired. Iran had long been accused of suppressing and discriminating against the country's ethnic minorities, including Kurds. The IRGC had been striking Kurdish groups and said on March 3 that it targeted Kurdish forces with dozens of drones.

The Kurds in Iran face severe oppression, with Kurdish prisoners in Iranian jails, Kurdish leaders assassinated by the regime, leading to a willingness within the Kurdish community to take the risk of involving themselves with the US in a new battle.

Iranian Kurdish armed groups had thousands of forces running along the Iraq-Iran border, primarily in Iraq’s Kurdistan region. Several of the groups have released public statements since the beginning of the war, hinting at imminent action and urging Iranian military forces to defect.

The Kurdish people are an ethnic minority group without an official state. Today, there are an estimated 25-30 million Kurds, the majority living in a region that stretches across parts of Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Armenia. Most Kurds are Sunni Muslims, but the Kurdish population has diverse cultural, social, religious, and political traditions as well as a variety of dialects. Kurds make up around 10 percent of Iran's population and primarily live in the country's west along the border with Iraq.

Any ground incursions by Iranian Kurdish groups into western Iran could stretch Tehran's military resources. It would stretch the IRGC forces thin when they are needed elsewhere. However, the risks of the US arming the Iranian opposition Kurdish groups are considerable. The US could trigger a civil war and the fragmentation of the country, which could have lasting consequences.

There were also risks for over half a dozen Iranian Kurdish groups that were based in northern Iraq. Many of these groups were previously armed but had since laid down their weapons. If the Kurds did engage in a long-term war against Iran, and the US support disappeared, this would have proven extremely dangerous for them.

The US recently cut support to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led militia that was a key US partner for years in the war against the Islamic State extremist group.

In anticipation of a US attack on Iran, five Iranian opposition Kurdish groups based in Iraqi Kurdistan announced a new political coalition last month aimed at overthrowing the Iranian regime and achieving Kurdish autonomy.[liv]

The new coalition includes the Kurdish-inhabited area Freedom Party (PAK), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), the Organization of Iranian Kurdistan Struggle (Kabat), and the Komala of the Toilers of Kurdistan. The coalition does not include several Kurdish political heavyweights, such as the Komala Party of the Iranian Kurdish-inhabited area.

Iranian Kurdish opposition forces were expected to take part in a ground operation in Western Iran. Some Kurds had hoped that in exchange for working with US forces, the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq would win its independence, though that never came to fruition.[lv]

The idea of a Kurdish intervention was later scuttled by Trump, who said it would add further complexity to the war situation.

Meanwhile, Europe had reacted cautiously to the escalating conflict with Iran, as several leaders expressed concern over the widening war and the continent struggled to present a united response.

When the US and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran on February 28, very few European leaders had advance notice. The limited consultation highlights how Europe has found itself on the sidelines of the rapidly escalating Middle East crisis. European Commission President Leyen and EU Council President Costa initially issued a joint statement saying the EU was closely watching developments and market “steadfast commitment to safeguarding regional security and stability.”

But divisions soon appeared among European governments over how to respond. At the same time, EU leaders acknowledged the dramatic implications of the killing of Khamenei during the US-Israeli strikes.[lvi]

Meanwhile, European governments have struggled to coordinate a unified stance. France, Germany, and the UK issued a joint warning over the weekend that they were prepared to take “defensive action” if Iran continued missile and drone attacks but stopped short of endorsing the strikes themselves.

The UK initially refused the US permission to use British bases for the strikes before reversing course and allowing them to be used for “defensive” operations targeting Iranian missile sites. Even then, tensions appeared between the UK and the US. Trump criticized British Prime Minister Starmer, saying that he was “very disappointed” and that it “took far too long” for the US to receive permission to use the bases. He also said that the relationship between the two countries was “not what it was.”

Across the continent, European governments were also grappling with the potential domestic consequences of the conflict. Energy prices had already surged, with European gas prices rising sharply amid fears of disruption to Middle Eastern supplies.[lvii]

Meanwhile, the US-Iran conflict intensified after a series of US and Israeli military operations that targeted Iran’s leadership and military infrastructure, prompting widespread Iranian missile and drone retaliation across the region. Tehran has also attacked US and allied bases in the region. As expected, the war had expanded and had now engulfed the entire region.

The Iranian regime had been weakened by relentless US-Israeli strikes but was still wholly intact. Only a ground invasion could have removed it. But that was never even considered for obvious reasons.

On March 14, the US launched a major airstrike on Iranian military installations on Kharg Island, with President Trump claiming that American forces “totally obliterated” key targets during what he described as one of the most powerful bombing raids ever conducted in the Middle East. The strike came amid escalating hostilities between the US, Israel, and Iran following a series of military confrontations across the Middle East. Trump again declared that.

“Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, nor will it have the ability to threaten the United States, the Middle East, or the world.”

The attack on Kharg Island could intensify regional tensions and raise concerns over potential disruptions to oil supplies and maritime security in the Gulf. The Kharg Island, found around nineteen miles off the Iranian mainland, manages 90 percent of Iran’s crude exports. The war has now sparked chaos in global markets and sent oil prices soaring.[lviii]

On March 14, Trump threatened to strike the oil infrastructure of Iran's Kharg Island hub unless Tehran stopped attacking vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, a warning that could ?further roil markets coping with a historic supply disruption. The export terminal lies about three hundred miles northwest of the strait.

President Trump said that:[lix]

Iran could not defend against U.S. attacks. "Iran’s Military, and all others involved with this Terrorist Regime, would be wise to lay down their arms, and save what’s left ?of their country, which isn’t much! The Fake News Media hates to report how well the United States Military has done against Iran, which is totally defeated ?and wants a deal - But not a deal that I would accept.”

Iran, however, showed no sign of capitulating or bowing to U.S.-Israeli military pressure. Iran’s armed forces threatened on March 14 to destroy US-linked oil infrastructure after Trump's statements.

Markets had been ?watching for any sign that US strikes had damaged the island's intricate network of pipelines, terminals, and storage tanks. Even minor disruptions could have further tightened global supply, adding pressure to a volatile market. Oil prices had swung sharply on Trump's changing comments about the likely duration of the war.

The U.S. embassy in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, was hit in a missile attack on March 14. In other attacks across the region, the IRGC said it had conducted more attacks on Israel with Lebanon's Hezbollah militia.[lx]

On March 13, Hegseth said that Iran’s new Supreme ?Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is wounded and disfigured, said on Friday, questioning Khamenei's ability to govern after US and Israeli attacks on Iran.

No images have been released of Khamenei since an Israeli strike at the start of the war that killed much of his family, including his father and wife. His first comments came in a statement read by a television presenter on March 12. In the statement, he vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz shut and called on neighboring ?countries to close U.S. bases on their territory or risk Iran targeting them.[lxi]

Energy prices have soared since the start of the war, with huge swings, coming close to $120 on March 9 before falling back. They stay well above levels before the conflict.

The cost of hiring a supertanker to ship oil from the Middle East to China had almost doubled from last week's price to a record high of more than $400,000.

The almost complete closure of the vital shipping lane had also hurt Gulf countries, like Saudi Arabia, whose economies rely heavily on energy exports. Iran, by comparison, exports about 1.7 million barrels per day, and it exported $67bn worth of oil in the fiscal year ending March 2025, which was the highest oil revenue in the past decade. A blockade of the strait will also hit Asia hard. In 2022, around 82% of crude oil and condensates leaving the Strait of Hormuz were bound for Asian countries. China alone was estimated to buy around 90% of the oil that Iran exports to the global market. Because China uses that oil to make products, it then exports to other countries, and higher oil prices could also mean higher prices for consumers around the world. Iran can close the Strait by laying mines using boats and submarines. The US military has said it has eliminated 16 Iranian mine-laying ships in the Strait.[lxii]

The persistent threat of Strait closure has prompted some Gulf countries to develop alternative export routes. Saudi Arabia runs a 1,200km-long pipeline capable of transporting up to five million barrels of crude oil per day. The UAE has connected its inland oilfields to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman via a pipeline with a daily capacity of at least 1.5 million barrels. However, that would lead to a drop in supply of between 8 and 10 million barrels per day.[lxiii]

Saudi Arabia was now using the pipeline. But the UAE link was not functional as the port of Fujairah had been hit by Iran.

Earlier, on March 12, 2026, two tankers were ablaze in an Iraqi port after being hit by suspected Iranian explosive-laden boats, a step-up in attacks that have cut off oil from ?the Middle East. The attacks were a clear sign of defiance of Trump, who said on March 11 that the US had already won the war. On March 12, three other ships were struck in the Gulf. IRGC claimed responsibility for at least one of those ?attacks, on a Thai bulk carrier that was set ablaze, which the IRGC said had disobeyed their orders. Another container vessel reported being struck near the UAE on March 12, 2026.[lxiv]

On March 14, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered the largest disruption to global oil markets in history, with supply expected to fall by about eight million barrels per day in March, or around 8%. The agency's member countries responded by agreeing to release a record 400 million barrels from strategic stockpiles to stabilize oil prices and compensate for the loss of Middle East output.[lxv]

Earlier, undermining U.S. and Israeli claims to have knocked out much of Iran's stock of long-range weapons, more drones were reported on March 12 flying into ?Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE, Bahrain, and Oman. Lebanon's Iran-backed militia Hezbollah fired its biggest volley of rockets into Israel during the war, prompting fresh Israeli strikes on Beirut. Trump repeatedly tried to calm energy markets by saying the surge ?in oil prices ?would be short-lived. On March 12, Trump said the US profited from higher oil prices, but that his priority was stopping Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. The US is a net oil exporter but is also the world's biggest oil consumer. Sustained ?soaring prices would cause broad inflation.[lxvi]

The war was spreading to the seas, with oil tankers hit by Iranian attacks, an Omani port set ablaze, and multiple vessels hit by projectiles near the Strait of Hormuz. The growing conflict is deepening fears about the impact on the global economy.[lxvii]

Meanwhile, several Asian countries are taking drastic action to reduce their oil consumption. Universities in Bangladesh have closed to save energy. Austerity measures in Pakistan have shuttered schools and shifted services online. Vietnam is calling on companies to encourage remote working, while Thailand has ordered government workers to work from home.[lxviii]

Trump also said the US was going to be hitting Iran "very hard over the next week", shortly after issuing a partial 30-day waiver for purchases of sanctioned ?Russian oil, hoping to ease prices fueled by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

Prices had been affected by Trump's changing comments on the likely duration of the war, which had prompted Iran to attack vessels in ?the Strait of Hormuz. Trump had previously said the war was "complete" and also promised to guarantee the safety of vessels in the strait. On March 13, Trump said the US could escort shipping there "if we needed to. Benchmark Brent crude eased about 0.6% to around $99.80, still up almost 40% since the start of the conflict. [lxix]

Meanwhile, Iran fired more missiles and drones at Israel, and Iranian drones were reported flying into Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE, Bahrain, and Oman. The Israeli military launched strikes across Tehran. It said its air force had struck more than two hundred targets ?in western and central Iran over the past day, including ballistic missile launchers, air defense systems, and weapons production sites.[lxx]

The US had conducted strikes against more than 6,000 targets in Iran. As many as 150 US troops have been wounded in the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. So far, the war had killed more than 2,000 people, including almost seven hundred in Lebanon.[lxxi]

Meanwhile, Trump said on March 13 that he will know when the war is over when he feels it “in my bones,” offering yet another personal measure for when the conflict might come to an end.[lxxii]

The ?war was getting exorbitantly expensive. In the first six days of the war, Iran had cost the US at least $11.3 billion. It is expected that the White House will soon make a request ?to Congress for more funding for the war. Some officials have said the request ?could be for $50 billion. The Trump administration had not provided a public assessment of the cost of the conflict or a clear idea of its expected duration. ?Trump said on March 11 that "we won" the war but that ?the US will stay in the fight to finish the job. The war has thrown global energy markets and transport into ?chaos.

Trump administration officials had also ?told lawmakers that $5.6 ?billion of munitions were used during the first two days of strikes. Members of the US Congress expressed concern that the conflict will ?deplete US ?military stocks at a time when the defense industry is already struggling to keep up with demand. Democratic lawmakers demanded public testimony under oath from administration ?officials about the Republican president's plans for the war, including how long it might last and what his ?plans are for Iran once the fighting has stopped.[lxxiii] And in a rare show of GOP criticism, Republican Sen.  Murkowski slammed Trump’s handling of the war, demanding public hearings and saying that mixed messaging from the administration is leading to confusion.

Meanwhile, Iranian President Pezeshkian and other Iranian officials said that the US must recognize Iran’s legitimate rights, pay reparations, and provide firm international guarantees against future aggression. The gist of the statements coming from Tehran is that, under the current circumstances, Iran will not negotiate, offer a ceasefire, or engage in diplomacy with the US while it continues to face air attacks from it and Israel.[lxxiv]

At the same time, Iran’s ambassador to the UN wrote to the secretary-general earlier this week calling on the international community, and the UN Security Council in particular, to urge the US and Israel to halt their attacks.

The war has ?caused the biggest disruption to global energy supplies since the oil shocks of the 1970s.[lxxv]

Oil prices had blasted above $100 a barrel. Iran said it would not allow oil through the Strait of Hormuz until US and Israeli attacks ceased, and it would not conduct any negotiations with Washington.[lxxvi]

On March 12, 2026, two tankers were ablaze in Iraqi waters, a clear escalation in Iranian attacks that have cut off Middle East energy supplies, defying Trump's claim ?to have already won the war he launched two weeks ago.

Iraqi authorities said the vessels had been attacked overnight by Iranian boats laden with explosives. At least one crew member was killed.

Hours earlier, three other ships had been struck in the Gulf. IRC claimed responsibility for at least one of those attacks, on a Thai bulk carrier that was set ablaze, which the IRGC said had disobeyed their orders. Another container vessel reported being struck by an unknown ?projectile near the UAE.

The war has so far killed around 2,000 people and ?caused the biggest disruption to global energy supplies since the oil shocks of the 1970s.[lxxvii]

The surge in oil prices came despite the announcement the previous day that developed countries would release 400 million barrels of oil from their strategic ?reserves, nearly half from the United States.

That was by far the biggest ever coordinated intervention in the oil markets. But it would take months to conduct and account for just three weeks of supply ?from the blockaded strait.

Meanwhile, Trump had repeatedly tried to calm energy markets this week by saying the war would soon be over and the surge in oil prices would be short-lived.

But he had not fully explained how the war would end or presented a plan to reopen the blockaded strait. US and Israeli officials said the aim was to destroy Iran's missile and nuclear programs, but Trump has also demanded Iran's "unconditional surrender" and the power to decide its leaders.

Iran had ?made clear that its strategy now was to impose a prolonged economic shock on the world to force Trump ?to back off.

The spokesperson for ?Iran's military command said on March 11 that the world should prepare for oil prices of $200 a barrel because of instability caused by the US. That would be well above the highest oil price in the history of $147.27 in July 2008, weeks before the start of the global fiscal crisis.

Trump said on March 11 that the huge release of reserves would "substantially reduce oil prices as we end this threat to America and the world".

Iran also hit ?fuel tanks in Bahrain, and drones struck oil storage facilities at Oman's Salalah port. Saudi Arabia said it had also intercepted several drones heading towards its Shaybah oilfield.[lxxviii]

Several ships had come under attack in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has said it would "set fire" to any ships trying to pass through the Strait, but an exceedingly small amount of traffic has continued.[lxxix]

With political pressure building over soaring oil costs, President Trump had suggested he would end the biggest US military operation since 2003 “soon.” But finding an acceptable end to the war could be difficult if Iran's hardline leaders stay firmly entrenched.

The cohesion of Iran's clerical leadership was present despite the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28. Since launching their war, the US and Israel have struck a range of Iranian targets, including air defenses, nuclear sites, and members of the senior leadership.

In addition to Khamenei, the strikes had killed dozens of senior officials and some of the highest-ranking commanders in the IRGC, an elite paramilitary force that controlled large parts of the economy.[lxxx]

Still, US intelligence reports showed that the IRGC and the interim leaders who assumed power after Khamenei's death kept control of the country.

Israel had no intention of allowing any remnants of the former government to stay intact. However, it is unclear how the current US-Israeli military campaign would topple the government. It would require a ground offensive that would allow people inside Iran to safely protest in the streets.

President Trump demanded Iran’s ‘unconditional surrender’ on March 6, adding that his country would work ‘to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction’ once a new leader acceptable to the US is chosen. Hegseth, the US Defense Secretary, said in early March that the US military would continue bombing ‘without mercy.’[lxxxi]

Meanwhile, the Trump administration had not ruled out sending US troops into Iran. Iranian Kurdish militias based in neighboring Iraq consulted with the US about how and whether to attack Iran's security forces in the western part of the country.

Such an incursion could put pressure on Iranian security services there, allowing Iranians to revolt against the government.

Mohtadi, the head of the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, part of a six-party coalition of Iranian Kurdish parties, said on March 11 that the parties are highly organized inside Iran and that “tens of thousands of young people are ready to take up arms” against the government if they receive US support. He further said he had received reports from inside the Iranian Kurdish-inhabited area that IRGC units and other security forces have abandoned bases and barracks out of fear of US and Israeli strikes. [lxxxii]

However,  recent US intelligence reports had cast doubt on the ability of the Iranian Kurdish groups to sustain a fight against Iranian security services. The intelligence reports show that the groups lack firepower and numbers. The Iranian Kurdish groups have recently asked the US to provide them with weapons and armored vehicles. Trump said on March 7 that he had ruled out having the Iranian Kurdish groups go into Iran.[lxxxiii]

The Kurdish invasion plan was scuttled later by the Trump administration because of its regional dimensions and added complexity.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA), made up of major oil-consuming nations, had agreed on March 11 to release four hundred million barrels of oil into the global market. This would be the largest release of emergency oil stocks in history. Soon after, Trump authorized the US to release 172 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.[lxxxiv]

Meanwhile, Oman had evacuated all vessels from its key oil export ?terminal at Mina Al Fahal as a precautionary measure. Iran had earlier stepped up attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz, raising the number of ships struck in the region since fighting began to at least sixteen.[lxxxv] Iran appeared to have set ablaze two tankers in Iraqi waters as it stepped up attacks on oil and transport facilities across the Middle East, warning the world should be ready for oil at $200 a barrel in defiance of  Trump's claim that the US had already won the war.

The war had thrown global energy markets and transport into chaos. The conflict has spread across the Middle East and prompted plans for a record release of strategic oil reserves to dampen one of the worst fuel shocks since the 1970s.

Earlier, Trump had made some outlandish statements about the war. He had once said the US had won the war, but did not want to go back every two years. “We don't want to leave early, do we?" he said. "We've got to finish the job."[lxxxvi]

On March 11, an Iranian military spokesperson said the Strait was "undoubtedly" under Iran's control, and the G7 group of nations (the US, Canada, Japan, Italy, Britain, Germany, and France) had agreed to examine the option of providing escort for ships so they can navigate freely in the Gulf.

Trump told US forces had knocked out 58 Iranian naval ships and that Iran was "pretty much at the end of the line."

He said the US would now "look very strongly" at the Strait of Hormuz, adding: "The straits are in great shape. We have knocked out all their boats. They have some missiles, but not very many."

Trump said earlier that ships "should" transit through the strait, but Iran had deployed about a dozen mines in the channel, further complicating the blockade.

US and Israeli officials have said they aim to end Iran's ability to project force beyond its borders and destroy its nuclear program.

Trump and other officials have sent mixed messages about whether regime change was another goal after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the first strikes and replaced by his son, Mojtaba Khamenei.

The US also warned that Iran and aligned militias may be planning to target US-owned oil and energy infrastructure in Iraq.

The US military told Iranians to stay clear of ports with Iranian navy facilities, drawing a warning from Iran's military that if the ports were threatened, economic and trade centers in the region would be "legitimate targets.”[lxxxvii]

President Trump welcomed a coordinated release of oil reserves and said the U.S. is working to keep energy supplies flowing as military operations against Iran continue. 

Meanwhile, on March 11, in an overwhelming vote, the UN Security Council backed a resolution condemning Iran. A Russian proposal calling for an end to the war that did not assign blame or even name the parties was rejected. [lxxxviii]

Escalating Iranian attacks and the U.S. government’s decision to hold off on military escorts for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz are raising the prospect of a prolonged closure that would choke off exports through the world’s most important energy-transport route.

On March 11, the IRGCs struck three cargo ships attempting to transit the waterway, the only sea route out of the Persian Gulf. It warned that any other vessels trying to move through the strait also would be targeted.[lxxxix]

Meanwhile, global oil prices surged back above $100 a barrel on March 12, 2026, as the widening Middle East conflict stoked supply disruption fears, and despite Efforts by the U.S. and the International Energy Agency to unleash the largest distribution of oil reserves in history, it did not keep oil futures from increasing. Front-month Brent crude oil futures jumped 9% to $100.29 in Asian trading on March 12, while front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose 8.9% to $94.97 a barrel. Oil prices, which shot up earlier in the week to $120 a barrel before retreating, jumped almost 10% back above $100 a barrel in Asian trade amid renewed fears about supply disruption. Wall Street's main share index fell, and stocks in Asia followed suit.

Iran had by now  made clear it intends to impose a prolonged economic shock, with the spokesperson for Iran's military command saying in remarks directed at the US: "Get ready for oil to be $200 a barrel, because the oil price depends on regional security, which you have destabilized."[xc]

The IEA recommended releasing four hundred million barrels from global strategic reserves to dampen one of the worst oil shocks since the 1970s, the biggest intervention in history.

Trump said the IEA decision "will substantially reduce oil prices as we end this threat to America and the world."

US Energy Secretary Wright said Trump had authorized the release of 172 million barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve from next week.

Houthis in Yemen and other Iran-backed groups could shut the Red Sea strait at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula. Container ships were struck off the coast of Dubai and Iraq, and Bahrain also announced a new strike targeting its oil facilities.

The US military has turned down requests to escort tankers or other civilian ships through the strait, with defense officials saying it will not do so until the threat of Iranian fire has eased. The head of US Central Command said its focus stays on destroying Iran’s missiles and drones.

Oil futures rallied as traders eyed continued trouble in and around the Strait of Hormuz, even as the US Energy Department said it would release 172 million barrels of oil from the country’s emergency stockpiles, part of a broader global effort.

Meanwhile, Iraqi officials called for more protection of maritime routes after reporting that two foreign tankers had been hit in Iraqi waters, catching fire and leaking oil. Bahrain said Iran had targeted fuel tanks at one of its facilities.

Israel carried out fresh airstrikes on Hezbollah targets after the Lebanese militia launched dozens of rockets at Israel. Saudi Arabia, Dubai, and Kuwait said they were targeted by drone attacks.[xci]

Israel also ?launched a barrage ?in Beirut aimed at rooting out the Iran-backed group Hezbollah, which has fired into Israel from Lebanon in solidarity with Tehran.

More than 1,300 ?Iranian civilians had been killed since the US and Israeli airstrikes began on February 28, according to Iran's U.N. ambassador, Iravani. Scores have also been killed in Israeli attacks on Lebanon.

Iranian strikes on Israel have killed at least eleven people, and two Israeli soldiers have died ?in Lebanon. Washington says seven U.S. soldiers have been killed and around 140 have been wounded.

The death toll continues to rise. The war had at least 486 in Lebanon and 11 in Israel. Iran launched new attacks on Israel and Gulf countries, keeping up pressure on the Middle East. The UAE was hit by nine drones, which killed two people. In Bahrain, an Iranian attack killed one person and wounded eight others. Saudi Arabia said it destroyed two drones over its oil-rich eastern region, and Kuwait’s National Guard said it shot down six drones.[xcii]

US Defense Secretary Hegseth said that “today will be yet again our most intense day of strikes inside Iran.” The US Joint Chiefs chairman said Iran’s missile attacks have fallen 90%.

Trump sent contradictory messages, telling Republican lawmakers the war was likely to be a “short excursion,” but threatening in a social media post hours later that the US would dramatically increase attacks if Iran tried to close the Strait of Hormuz. Iran had been targeting energy infrastructure and traffic through the strait, which is a vital waterway for traded oil.

Meanwhile, the US stock market steadied early after Trump’s comments fueled wild swings on hopes for a quick end to the war. Oil prices briefly shot to their highest level since 2022 after Iran selected Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his late father as Iran’s supreme leader.

Earlier, the US and Israel continued to strike Iran. On March 10, the US said it was striking Iranian ships capable of mining the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed by Iranian threats.

Meanwhile, Israel had also launched new waves of strikes both in Beirut and Tehran, where residents hunkered down after being smothered by black rain from Israeli bombing of fuel depots.

In response, Iran had continued to unleash strikes around the region, with the government saying that it conducted its own "most intense and heaviest" salvo. It has also definitely stated that it is not seeking a ceasefire.[xciii]

Meanwhile, the ongoing Middle Eastern conflict raged on. The IRGC released a list on March 11 of offices and infrastructure run by top US companies with Israeli links whose technology has been used for military applications, describing them as “Iran’s new targets”.

These companies include Google, Microsoft, Palantir, IBM, Nvidia, and Oracle, and the listed offices and infrastructure for cloud-based services are in multiple Israeli cities, as well as in some Gulf countries.[xciv]

Meanwhile, Bahrain moved Gulf Air and cargo planes to alternative airports to keep safe and efficient operations. Iranian attacks on infrastructure across the Gulf continued to disrupt air traffic, hampering efforts to restore flights as the war in Iran entered its 12th day. The war ?had led to tens of thousands of flight cancellations, rerouting, and schedule changes ?worldwide, shutting down much of the Middle East’s airspace due to missile ?and drone threats.

The war had plunged aviation into its worst crisis since the pandemic, as Dubai International ?Airport (DXB), the busiest hub for global passengers, and other regional airports are critical transit ?points for long-haul travel.

The conflict has also disrupted a key oil export corridor, leading to a spike in jet fuel prices, pushing fares higher on some routes and deepening concern about a broader hit to travel ?demand. Time-sensitive air cargo was also heavily affected.[xcv]

Meanwhile, President Trump had downplayed soaring oil prices, arguing that the US benefits from high energy costs. Trump’s energy secretary said the US Navy is not yet ready to escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz as Iran attacks ships in the waterway. The national average for a gallon of fuel is currently $3.59 – up from $2.94 a month ago.[xcvi]

Meanwhile, Israeli aggression in Lebanon continues. Israeli strikes and mass evacuation orders in Lebanon could push the number of displaced people to more than one million within two to three days, said Othman Belbeisi, Middle East and North Africa director of the International Organization of Migration (IOM).

Israel issued another evacuation order to residents in southern Lebanon on March 12, nearly doubling the area residents have been told to leave and recommending that they move north of the Zahrani River.

More than 800,000 people had already been displaced, the United Nations resident and humanitarian coordinator in Lebanon said on March 12, while seven hundred people have been killed by Israeli strikes, according to the Lebanese health ministry.[xcvii]

Former US Secretary of State Kerry said that the energy shock resulting from the United States and Israel’s war with Iran is one of the worst global crises in decades. “It’s very dangerous,” Kerry said on March 12. “Hope diplomacy will re-enter in a very forceful way in the next days… It is incredibly important for the world that folks find an off-ramp here.” Kerry said the crisis was one of the worst in decades and could get “even more out of control.” You’ve seen what’s happened to (energy) prices – that will flow down into everybody’s economy if it goes on too long,” he said. Having collaborated closely with the Iranians during the negotiations by the Obama administration, which led to the 2015 nuclear deal, Kerry warned that Tehran could drag the conflict out, inflicting further economic pain. “No one should underestimate Iran’s capacity to conduct asymmetrical warfare. They have proven it previously. They are practiced at it,” he said. “I just don’t know to what degree – if at all – those considerations were taken into account here in the (Trump administration’s) decision-making.”[xcviii]

Meanwhile, the Trump administration said that the first six days of the Iran war cost $11.3b. The estimate was shared in a closed congressional briefing and, administration officials say, covers the immediate campaign expenses but not the full scope of costs associated with military buildup and ongoing operations. Lawmakers pressing for more detailed figures have been told that the total is expected to rise as further assessments are completed.

Some congressional aides had shown that the Trump administration might seek as much as $50 billion in supplemental funding for the conflict. Public details about the administration’s overall cost projections and the projected duration of the war remain limited.

Trump had publicly characterized the conflict as effectively won, even as Defence officials warned that continued operations would require significant resources.

Meanwhile, Gulf Arab governments had expressed deep anger over Iranian attacks on their territories, but are pushing strongly for diplomacy as the preferred path forward. The Gulf states reject Tehran’s justification that strikes on their soil are legitimate because of their alliances with the US. They argued that Iran’s interpretation is both exaggerated and strategically flawed, and they have accused Tehran of miscalculating the regional impact of its actions.

Despite public outrage and repeated condemnations, Gulf leaders have reiterated that military escalation is not a solution. They saw robust Defence measures, including missile-intercept systems, as necessary, but stressed that a broader conflict would be damaging for all parties involved.

Most importantly, Gulf leadership was aware of its geographical compulsions. Senior Gulf officials had underscored the necessity of diplomacy, saying that even after the current hostilities end, their countries will remain neighbors to Iran and must find a way to coexist. They have looked to assure their domestic audiences that avoiding deeper involvement in the war is still a top priority, and that restraint and negotiations offer the best chance of long-term stability.

Meanwhile, Iran had set ablaze two tankers in Iraqi waters as it stepped up attacks on oil and transport facilities across the Middle East. Unleashed with joint US and Israeli air strikes on Iran almost two weeks ago, the war has so far killed around 2,000 people and thrown global energy markets and transport into chaos. The conflict has spread across the Middle East and prompted plans for a record release of strategic oil reserves to dampen one of the worst fuel shocks since the 1970s.

The Trump administration had given varying reasons for the war. In announcing the beginning of the US operation, Trump urged Iranians to “take over your government,” but top aides have since denied that the aim was to oust Iran's leadership.[xcix] Notwithstanding US and Israeli claims, the war will continue for some time, and it could further spread chaos and conflict across the region. The war against Iran is a war of choice. Undoubtedly, Iran did not pose an existential threat to the US, as it might have done for Israel. But Israel’s leadership and US supporters had, in the end, persuaded the Trump administration to wage an unprovoked attack that was a violation of international law. Only a full-fledged ground invasion can change the regime, and that is possible now. Meanwhile, the war will continue unabated and thereby wreck the region further.

President Trump was now faced with a dilemma. Yaroslav Trofimov, in his excellent article “Ending the Iran War Quickly Carries Big Risks for the U.S. and Allies,” published in the Wall Street Journal on March 11, 2026, had aptly argued that: [c]

President Trump—faced with rising oil prices and pushback from his MAGA base—is signaling that he wants to wind down the war he launched against Iran less than two weeks ago. But stopping the fighting carries big risks, even if Iran lets him. If Trump proclaims victory, stops the bombing, and begins to withdraw the huge air and naval assets he assembled in the Middle East, it could soothe global markets, at least in the short term, and reassure American voters uneasy about the prospect of another forever war. Leaving the regime undefeated could motivate Tehran to develop nuclear weapons and leave it in control of much of the world’s energy flows.

Thus, President Trump has not yet explained how the war will end or presented a plan to reopen the blocked strait. The US and Israel state that the aim is to destroy Iran's missile and nuclear programs, but Trump has also demanded the destruction of Iran’s navy, Iran's "unconditional surrender," and the power to decide its leaders, and more. He does not have any coherent strategy for ending the war. What is now desperately needed is an off-ramp. As the cost of the war rapidly escalates, this is now obvious. However, it will not happen anytime soon, and the war will continue unabated for some time. The region will thereby suffer tremendously, and the global economy, too, will feel the aftershocks. The US is really fighting Israel’s war, not its own. As the war costs climb, the Trump administration might realize the mistake. Whether or not it realizes it, it will pay the cost in the coming November mid-term elections. The overwhelming part of Americans, like other nations, do not want their country to be engulfed in another fruitless war in the Middle East. The lessons of American defeats in Afghanistan and Iraq have been learnt by many knowledgeable people, but not the Trump administration. It will surely pay a heavy price for that. The Republican Party will lose power in the coming midterm elections. There was a glimmer of hope of a nuclear deal between the US and Iran just two days before the war began on February 28. But that was not even considered in any serious manner by the Trump administration. Too bad for the US and the Middle East region, and the world.

On March 12, Busaidi, Oman’s foreign minister and the mediator in the US-Iran nuclear talks, had claimed the US would not achieve as much through war as it could have achieved in the peace talks. He challenged the premise that the war is about Iran’s nuclear program, arguing it was designed to weaken Iran politically. He noted that recent negotiations had reached a very advanced stage, including an Iranian pledge not to have nuclear material capable of producing a bomb, a commitment not to accumulate or store enriched materials, and to convert existing stockpiles into irreversible fuel. Busaidi emphasized that the US could not have obtained greater concessions through war than those achieved through negotiation. He added that the true objective of the war was to weaken Iran, reshape the region, and advance the normalization process within a broader context that also included attempts to prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state and to weaken any country or institution that supports or stands with the Palestinian statehood project. He considered the US  and Israeli attacks on Iran a new link in a “dangerous chain of violations witnessed in recent years” and said they threatened to undermine the legal framework that had provided protection and stability to the countries of the region for decades.[ci]

Meanwhile, the war continued unabated. Israel continued to launch strikes on Iran as well as Lebanon and Gaza, targeting militants from the Iran-backed Hezbollah and Hamas. The ?Israeli military said on March 16 that its troops ?had begun limited ground operations against positions in southern Lebanon held by Hezbollah.

Despite repeated claims from the US to have destroyed Iran's military capabilities, drone attacks continued to threaten Gulf states on March 16. UAE and Saudi Arabia were hit.

Although some Iranian vessels had continued to pass and a few ships from other countries had successfully made the crossing, the Strait of Hormuz had been effectively closed for most of the world's tanker traffic since ?the war began. By March 16, the global economy was suffering, and regional events were moving fast. Iran's ability to choke off ?traffic through the Hormuz Strait had emerged as a major threat to the global economy. Global air travel was still severely disrupted due to the Iran war, which had closed or restricted key Middle Eastern hubs including Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi, forcing airlines to cancel thousands of flights and stranding tens of thousands of passengers. Supplies of jet fuel were also becoming a concern, with authorities in Vietnam warning the country's aviation industry to prepare for potential flight reductions from April after China and Thailand halted exports of jet fuel due to the Iran war.[cii]

The Trump administration,  responding to economic uncertainty over high oil prices, predicted on March 15 that the war with Iran would ?end within weeks ?and that a drop in energy costs would follow, despite Iran's assertion that it remains "stable and strong" and ready to defend itself.

Trump threatened more strikes ?on Iran's main oil export hub, Kharg Island, and had said previously that Iran wants to negotiate and that the US was talking to Iran, but Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi on March 15 disputed that claim.[ciii]

Earlier, Trump ?, on March 14, called on ?China, France, Japan, South Korea, Britain, and other countries affected by the curbing of oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz to join efforts to reopen shipping lanes. "Demanding that these countries come in and protect their own territory because it is their territory," Trump said, "It’s the place from which they get their energy.” In a social media post, he hoped ?China, France, Japan, South Korea, Britain, and others would take part. President Trump, on March 15, called on NATO allies to help end the de facto Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. He also said that he was expecting China to help unblock the strait before his scheduled meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing at the end of this month and might postpone his trip if it did not help. “I think China should help too because China gets 90% of its oil from the Straits,” Trump said. “We may delay," he said about his visit if China did not offer support in the Gulf.

But two allies were openly reluctant. Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi said on March 16 that: “We have not made any decisions whatsoever about dispatching escort ships. We are continuing to examine what Japan can do independently and what can be done within the ?legal framework." Australia said it will not send naval ships to help in reopening the strait either. Trump then had ratcheted up pressure on European allies to help protect the strait, warning that NATO faces a “very ?bad” future if its members do not come to America’s aid. While some European countries said they were discussing ways to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Some European officials had pondered whether the ?EU mission could be part of an effort to restore freedom of navigation in the Gulf.[civ]

France ?had been seeking to assemble a coalition to secure the strait once the security situation ?stabilizes, while Britain ?is discussing a range of options with allies to ensure the security of shipping.[cv]

On March 16, China responded when a spokesperson for China's foreign ministry said "head-of-state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable strategic guiding role in China-US relations", before adding "the two sides have maintained communication regarding President Trump's visit”. In response to a question about Trump calling for warships to be sent to the Strait, Lin Jian says that recent tensions have disrupted trade routes and undermined regional and global peace. The spokesperson further said that "China reiterates its call for all parties to immediately cease military operations," the spokesperson says, and adds, "we are committed to promoting de-escalation".[cvi]

Michael D. Shear,  ‘This Is Not Our War’: Europe and U.K. Push Back Against Trump’s Demands,” published in the New York Times, March 16, 2026, aptly put it as:[cvii]

As President Trump’s assault on Iran enters its third week, European leaders are resisting his bellicose demands for help in reopening the Hormuz. At the same time, they are trying to avoid irreparably damaging their relationship with the United States over their opposition to another war of America’s choosing. To Mr. Trump, it should hardly be a difficult decision. He views Europe’s action — or inaction — in the face of the strait’s closure as a test of its commitment to the continent’s own security. Sending their navies for what he called a “very small endeavor” is the least that Europe’s presidents and prime ministers can do, Mr. Trump suggested over the weekend.

Several US allies had rebuffed Donald Trump's call on March 16 to ?send warships to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, drawing criticism from the US president, who accused Western partners of ingratitude after decades of support.

The war was now in its third week with no end in ?sight. The critical Strait of Hormuz stays closed off, raising energy prices and fears of inflation. The conflict has already imposed economic costs on US allies, who had not consulted before the airstrikes on Iran and who had endured months of harsh criticism and bellicose threats from Trump.

Several US partners, including Germany, Spain, and Italy, said they had no immediate plans to send ships to help reopen the strategic waterway, which Iran had effectively shut with drones and naval mines.

"We lack the mandate from the ?United Nations, the European Union, or NATO required under the Basic Law," German Chancellor Merz said, adding that the US and Israel had not consulted Germany before launching the war.[cviii]

Trump ?said many countries had told him they were prepared to help, but voiced frustration with some long-standing allies. “Some are very enthusiastic about it, and some aren't," he said, without offering specifics. "Some ?are countries that we've helped for many, many years. We have protected them from horrible outside sources, and they were not that enthusiastic. And the level of enthusiasm matters to me."[cix]

Meanwhile, Israel said on March 16 that it had drawn up ?detailed plans for at least three more weeks of war as it pounded sites across Iran overnight, while Iranian drone attacks temporarily shut Dubai airport and hit a key oil facility in the UAE. Israeli troops pushed into new parts of southern Lebanon, ?part of an expanding operation after Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel in retaliation for the killing of Iran's supreme leader.

In a joint statement, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and Britain warned that any "significant Israeli ground offensive would have devastating humanitarian consequences and could lead to a protracted conflict," and that such an operation "must be averted." Israel has said it wants to weaken Iran's capacity to threaten it, striking ballistic missile infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and the security apparatus, and that it still has thousands of targets to hit. “We want to make sure that they are as weak as possible, this regime, and ?that we degrade all their capabilities, all parts and all wings of their security establishment," Israeli military spokesperson Lieutenant Shoshani said. On March 13, Iran ?said it would target oil and gas facilities in any country from which US attacks were launched on Kharg Island. Foreign Minister Araqchi said Tehran had not asked for a ceasefire or exchanged messages with the US.[cx]

The IRGC said earlier that Iran had launched strikes on areas in Tel Aviv, the U.S. Al Dhafra Air Base in Abu Dhabi, the U.S. naval base in Bahrain, and Bahrain’s Sheikh Isa Air Base. On the UAE's coast along the Gulf of Oman, oil loading operations at the port of Fujairah partially resumed after an Iranian drone strike. Fujairah is a key export point for the UAE's Murjan crude, a volume equivalent to 1% of global demand.

Flights at Dubai International Airport, one of ?the world's busiest, ?were suspended for several hours after a drone strike on a nearby fuel storage facility sent plumes of black smoke into the sky. Saudi Arabia ?intercepted thirty-four drones in its eastern region in one hour, state media said. No injuries were reported in either incident.[cxi]

Despite the turbulence, oil prices, which had been above $100 a barrel, fell, and stocks rallied after US Treasury Secretary Bessent maintained that the US was "fine" to let some Iranian fuel vessels through the strait, ?and believed Indian and Chinese tankers had also passed through.

Meanwhile, in the first two weeks of March, Iranian drones ?and missiles had struck targets in the Gulf states that included US military bases and an UAE base hosting French troops, civilian structures, including hotels, airports, and ?energy ?facilities. Iran had also halted all shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, causing global energy prices to spike.[cxii]

On March 17, Iran launched fresh attacks on the UAE and Israel overnight, underscoring that it had reached the capacity to conduct long-range strikes despite more than two weeks of pounding by US and Israeli weapons. Israel said it was targeting "Iranian regime infrastructure" with a new wave of strikes across ?Tehran, as well as Hezbollah sites in Beirut, a day after saying it had drawn up detailed plans for at least three more weeks of war with Iran. Rockets and at least five drones targeted the US ?embassy in Baghdad.[cxiii]

Iranian attacks on the UAE had forced the temporary closure of airspace, and a drone hit an oil facility in Fujairah, a key port for UAE oil exports, for a second ?consecutive day.

Trump earlier accused some Western allies of ingratitude after several countries rebuffed his demand to send warships to escort oil tankers in ?the strait. Trump said many countries had told him they were prepared to help, but voiced frustration with some long-standing allies.

Anthony Zurcher, in his informative article “Surge in US petrol prices deepens political peril for Trump over Iran,” published in the BBC News, March 17, said:[cxiv]

In the third week of the joint US-Israeli war against Iran, Donald Trump faces decisions that could define the rest of his presidency. But if the American commander-in-chief is grappling with a war of choice that seems in danger of spiraling in ways he cannot control, those concerns are not playing out in public.… American presidents have learned the hard way that war can consume a presidency, whether they want it to or not. And evidence continues to mount that a war that Trump had previously said was "already won" and "very complete" now has a timeline that could stretch for weeks or even longer.

President Trump was now facing increasing criticism of his claims and conduct of the war. He had been warned that attacking Iran could trigger retaliation against its Gulf allies despite his claims on March 16 ?that Tehran's reaction came as a surprise, according to US intelligence reports. Pré-war ?intelligence assessments did not say that Iran’s response was a guarantee, but it certainly was on the list of potential outcomes. Surprisingly, Trump twice, on March 16, said that Iran’s retaliatory strikes against Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait were ?a surprise. He said that: “They (Iran) weren’t supposed to go after all ?these other countries in the Middle East," he said. "Nobody expected that. We were shocked."

Trump’s assertion followed other administration claims ?that have not been backed by US intelligence reporting, such as that Iran would soon have a missile capable of hitting the US ?homeland and that it would need two to four weeks to make a nuclear bomb and would then use it. Those allegations and an imminent ?threat posed by Iran to the US and its forces in the region have been among the varying reasons that Trump and some top aides have given to justify his decision to join Israel in launching their air war against Iran on February 28. Trump was also briefed ahead of the operation that Tehran would look ?to close the economically vital Strait of Hormuz.[cxv]

Earlier, Democratic lawmakers appeared from administration briefings on the war and said that they heard of no imminent threat that required the US and Israel to launch the war.

Trump repeated his ?claim on March 16 when he was asked if he ?was surprised that ?nobody had briefed him about the risk that Iran would strike back at the Gulf states. “Nobody, nobody, no, no, no. The greatest experts, nobody thought they were going to hit," replied Trump.[cxvi]

The Pentagon confirmed that seven US military personnel had been killed. More than 100,000 people had been forced to flee Tehran, according to the UN Human Rights Council. In southern Lebanon, hundreds of thousands of civilians had left their homes in the face of Israeli attacks targeting the Iran-backed group Hezbollah. Tens of thousands of foreign nationals were leaving the region.

The opposition to the war is growing all over the world, even in the US. Democratic Senator Hollen said Congress should not fund the Trump administration’s assault on Iran. “Not one more dime for an illegal war of choice that is making us less safe,” Van Hollen wrote on X. “The best way to protect our troops, end the killing of school children and civilians, reduce skyrocketing oil and gas prices, and stop wasting billions of taxpayer dollars is to cut off the funding.” In the US system, Congress distributes money to the federal government, including the Pentagon. With Trump’s Republican Party in control of the Senate and the House of Representatives, Democrats are unlikely to succeed in defunding the war. But the push highlights the growing opposition to the conflict, which Trump launched without congressional approval.[cxvii]

Notwithstanding the claims of the Trump administration and Netanyahu’s government, the US-Israel war of choice on Iran is a violation of international law. The Guardian’s editorial entitled “The Guardian view on the Iran war and international law: it’s worse than a mistake; it’s a crime” on March 13, 2026, brilliantly said that:

When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the international condemnation from Europe and elsewhere was loud and clear. Leaders did not expect legal threats to shift Vladimir Putin or end war crimes by his troops. But they understood the importance of naming what had happened as an illegal act of aggression, and of looking to hold those responsible accountable. The same countries have been strikingly muted since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran. This, too, was an act of aggression. Spain’s Pedro Sánchez has been lonely in his forthright condemnation, though Norway and others also pointed to the breach of international law. Meanwhile, Australia’s prime minister, Anthony Albanese, offered unreserved support, and Germany’s chancellor, Friedrich Merz, declared that it was “not the moment to lecture our partners and allies”. As in Ukraine, the original sin has quickly been compounded, with the deaths of over a thousand civilians reported in Iran alone – including in the strike on a girls’ school which killed at least 175 people, mostly children: evidence points to US responsibility. Serious violations of the laws of war, reckless as well as deliberate, constitute war crimes. The US Defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, declared on Friday that “no quarter will be given” to the enemy – a violation of international humanitarian law. Israel’s attacks on Lebanon, in retaliation for Hezbollah attacks defending Iran, are at a minimum disproportionate – as Katja Kallas, the EU foreign affairs chief, has implied – with vast civilian displacement and damage to infrastructure. That Iran is also committing war crimes does not lessen US or Israeli culpability. The contrast between the West’s rhetoric about universal standards and its selective outrage is glaringly and increasingly clear to people around the world…. Each time, the belief in international law as an essential framework for conduct was further undermined. Each time, an implicit license was given for further breaches. Double standards reflect disquiet about the Venezuelan and Iranian regimes, fear of angering the US president, and the prioritization of Ukraine’s needs. But some are also adopting US arguments. When Donald Trump declared that his “own morality” was the only limit on his global powers, the problem was not merely his character. Yet as the war on Iran began…. The difficulty of upholding international law and the limits of its scope are no reason to jettison it. If those who lament the decline of the rules-based order remain complicit with the erosion of law, we will all be in greater danger.

William Roberts, in his thought-provoking article “US presidency: attack on Iran set to test War Powers Resolution in confrontation with Congress,” published by the International Bar Association on March 16, had pertinently argued that: [cxviii]

US President Donald Trump’s bombing campaign against Iran, launched alongside Israel in February without the support of NATO allies, is a strategic gamble that appears to have been taken hastily and without clearly defined aims. The war saw the assassination of Iran’s leader, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on the first day of hostilities. President Trump and his administration officials have offered shifting justifications for the war, including seeking regime change in Tehran and preventing the country from obtaining nuclear weapons. They have also highlighted a need to destroy Iran’s ability to attack the US and Israel, and to disrupt its support for regional proxy groups.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also said that the US was aware that Israel was going to take action against Iran and therefore had to act ‘pre-emptively’, given that American forces were set to come under attack from Tehran. International lawyers and national security experts say the American Israeli attack highlights a significant lack of legal justification for the use of force and US presidential war powers. The Trump administration has not put forward any information that Iran was imminently initiating hostilities… Many commentators agree that the Trump administration has failed to provide a practical justification for the attack. …. Trump himself undercut any rationale he might have had for some sort of urgency or imminence. What we are left with is just a war of choice launched by two states. ….President Trump’s idea of diplomacy is that he sends over a set of demands, and he expects the other side to capitulate to them,’ says Adam Weinstein, Deputy Director of the Middle East program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington, DC. Weinstein believes the Trump administration does not have an ‘end state’ in mind for the war. ‘If you listen to the Trump administration officials, the reasons keep changing,’ he says. First, they want to destroy the missile capacity. Then they say it is because Israel was going to attack anyway. Now, [President Trump is] saying that he wants a part in choosing the next leader of Iran.’ Weinstein adds that the Trump administration continues to update the timeline for the conflict, from days to weeks, to months. Domestically, President Trump appears to have been aiming for a quick political victory like the capture of President Nicolás Maduro from Venezuela in January. But the attack on Iran is proving controversial.

Despite the US and Israeli attacks, Iran’s oil production and exports continue without ?interruption. Kharg Island serves ?as Iran's main oil ?export hub, being 90% of ?the OPEC member's oil shipments. Military assets on the island were struck by ?the US earlier. Iran reiterated its threat that any ?foreign attack ?on ?Kharg Island would lead to "a greater humiliation than ?the Strait of Hormuz", ?where ?Tehran has prevented the passage of vessels it says ?are ?linked to the ?US, Israel, and their allies.[cxix]

On March 17, the price of oil was hovering around $103.15 a barrel, dipping after a spike of $105 in early trading. The movement in oil prices comes as the Iraqi oil minister said they were in contact with Iran to allow some oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Major Chinese oil companies had also started making inquiries with Russian crude oil suppliers after the US waived sanctions in a bid to ease pressure on global oil supplies. Oil prices had jumped since the war began, and crucial access to the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted. But prices eased on March 16 after reports that several ships had been able to safely navigate the channel.[cxx]

Given Iran’s desperate situation and threat of collapse, it is being quietly backed by both Russia and China, which is bound to increase in scope. Iran is proving resilient as it was prepared for the war. Both the US and Israel had underestimated Iran’s resilience, underlying unity, fierce nationalism, and even war preparedness.

Meanwhile, the question both Trump and Netanyahu face now is: without regime change in Tehran, how long before the next time?

The damage to Iran's weapons program this time is far deeper than before. Iran’s production sites and leadership were targeted alongside missile stocks and launchers. The US and Israel planned their joint attack on Iran together over several months. There is a political risk for Netanyahu in leaving the regime intact. Hamas still controls half of Gaza. Hezbollah is now putting up a much bigger fight than imagined, and after the June 2025 war against Iran, Israel and the US are back in an even bigger war against Iran. Netanyahu has made a career out of defending Israel against the so-called Iranian threat. He is now facing a tricky situation.[cxxi]

Meanwhile, in a most bewildering manner, public fury in Washington was notably scarce across the Gulf states, even as they absorbed some of the heaviest shocks of a regional war that they had urged the US to avoid. With few exceptions, senior Gulf figures had avoided publicly blaming Washington for its decision to confront Iran. Gulf capitals are reserving ?the language of betrayal for Tehran, not for the US, even as American actions helped set the conflict in motion. A rare public deviation came from Emirati ?tycoon Al Habtoor, who briefly challenged Trump over “dragging” the region into war before retracting the comments, a sign of tight unease inside Gulf ?circles about Washington’s ?choices. Aramco CEO Amin Nasser pointedly avoided criticizing Washington on March 17, even as he warned that the disruption had triggered “a severe chain reaction” with potentially “catastrophic” consequences for global oil markets.[cxxii]

Iran’s behavior had made this restraint easier to keep. After years of slow rapprochement and assurances from Gulf Arab states that their territory would not be used to launch attacks on Iran, many expected Tehran to acknowledge those efforts. Gulf officials had even mounted an intense round of diplomacy in January, warning Washington and Tehran alike that a ?US strike on Iran would trigger exactly ?the kind of regional blowback now ?unfolding. Instead, Iran struck Gulf Arab territory on day one and has rattled Gulf capitals ever since. Qatar’s Prime Minister called Iran’s moves a “betrayal,” saying they were preplanned and unleashed despite Gulf guarantees of neutrality. Doha had worked to preserve “a peaceful neighborhood” and ease ?US–Iran diplomacy, he said, but Iran’s miscalculation “destroyed everything.”[cxxiii]

The US had given shifting rationales for joining Israel to attack Iran and struggled to explain the legal basis for starting a new war. Finally, Joseph Kent, the head ?of the United States National Counterterrorism Centre (NCTC), resigned on March 1. He became ?the first and most senior member of President Trump's administration to resign over the war in Iran. Kent wrote in his resignation letter to Trump that Iran "posed no imminent threat to our nation." He posted that:[cxxiv]

Cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war ?in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to ?our nation, and we started this ?war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful lobby…Until June of 2025, you understood that the wars in the Middle East were a trap that robbed America of the precious lives of our patriots and depleted the wealth and prosperity of our nation…Early in this administration, high-ranking Israeli officials and influential members of the American media deployed a misinformation campaign that wholly undermined your America First platform and sowed pro-war sentiments to encourage a war with Iran…This echo chamber was used to deceive you into believing that Iran posed an imminent threat to the US, and that should you strike now, there was a clear path to a swift victory….This was a lie and is the same tactic the Israelis used to draw us into the disastrous Iraq war that cost our nation the lives of thousands of our best men and women…..Cannot support sending the next generation off to fight and die in a war that serves no benefit to the American people, nor justifies the cost of American lives.

Some ?experts had said an imminent threat would be needed ?for the US to launch a war under current law. As expected, Trump accused Kent of being "very weak on security" and said it is a "good thing that he's out".

Earlier, Trump administration officials had acknowledged in closed-door briefings with congressional staff that there was no intelligence suggesting Iran planned to attack US forces first. ”[cxxv]

On March 18, President Trump earlier lashed out at NATO allies over their reluctance to support U.S. efforts in Iran. Most US allies ?in NATO had told Trump they don't want ?to get involved in the conflict, he said, ?describing their position as "a very foolish mistake."

Meanwhile, Iran had responded to the Israeli-U.S. attacks with wide-ranging strikes on ?its Gulf neighbors. Gulf Arab states had faced more than 2,000 missile and drone attacks on US diplomatic missions and military bases, as well as oil infrastructure, ports, airports, ships, and residential and commercial buildings, ?and most of them aimed at the ?UAE.[cxxvi]

Trump said the US had already decimated Iran’s navy and air force and no longer needed help from NATO, Japan, Australia, or South Korea.

Israel killed   Larijani, Iran’s security chief and the head of its Basij paramilitary force, in strikes. They were the most prominent figures in the regime since Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed on the first day of the war. A defiant Iran said Israel's killing of the security chief and other key officials would not hinder its operations, with replacements swiftly appointed, as Israel launched a swathe of strikes against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran’s Foreign Minister ? Araqchi said the US and Israel did not understand that the Islamic Republic was a robust political system and did not depend on any single individual. The death of senior officials would not disrupt governance, and the state ?would continue to function, Araqchi said on March 18. [cxxvii]

On March 18, the U.S. military dropped 5,000-pound deep-penetrator bombs along Iran’s coast near the Strait of Hormuz to take out hardened sites containing anti-ship cruise missiles, according to U.S. Central Command.

Iranian missiles hit Tel Aviv and caused heavy damage across central Israel. Two people died from shrapnel injuries in the strikes.[cxxviii]

Iran targeted Tel Aviv with missiles carrying cluster warheads in what it said was retaliation for Israel's assassination of Larijani. The weapons used included Khorramshahr 4 and Qadr missiles, both of which carried multiple warheads. Israeli authorities said the attacks killed two people in Tel Aviv, where there are also key military facilities, bringing the death toll in Israel from the war to at least 14.

Meanwhile, the war showed no signs of de-escalation nearly three weeks in, with Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, attending his first foreign-policy meeting since his appointment, rejecting ?proposals conveyed to Iran for "reducing tensions or ceasefire with the US”. Khamenei said ?it was not "the right time for peace until the US and Israel are brought to their knees, accept defeat, and pay compensation." [cxxix]

Meanwhile, the latest strikes had sucked Lebanon deeper into the war ?in the Middle East after Hezbollah attacked Israel on March 2, saying it aimed to avenge the killing of Iran's supreme leader. Israel has responded with an offensive that has killed more than 900 people in Lebanon and forced more than 800,000 people from their homes. The US-based ?Iran human rights ?group HRANA said on March 16 that an estimated 3,000-plus people have been killed in Iran since the U.S.-Israeli attacks began at the end of February. Iranian attacks have killed people in Iraq and across the Gulf states, as well as in Israel.[cxxx]

The US military said on March 17 it had targeted sites along Iran's coastline near the Strait of Hormuz with powerful "bunker buster" bombs because Iranian anti-ship missiles posed a risk to international shipping there.

The Strait stayed closed as Iran threatened to attack tankers linked to the US and Israel. Oil prices had soared. Meanwhile, Trump had repeatedly castigated allied countries in recent days for their cool response to his requests for military help to restore the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.[cxxxi]

With no signs of a de-escalation in fighting, oil prices were up around 45% since the start of ?the war, raising concerns of a renewed spike in global inflation. The World Food Program said tens of millions of people will face acute hunger if the war continues through June. Global airlines sounded the alarm on March 17 over soaring jet fuel prices, warning of hundreds of millions of extra costs, higher fares, and cuts to ?some routes. Global aviation has been thrown into turmoil, with flights cancelled, rescheduled, or rerouted as most Middle East airspace is still closed amid fears of missile and drone attacks.[cxxxii]

Earlier, Trump had missed an excellent opportunity on February 26 when a nuclear deal was just in the making. Wintour, in his brilliant article “How ignorance, misunderstanding and obfuscation ended Iran nuclear talks,” The Guardian, March 18, 2026, said:[cxxxiii]

In the many bizarre exchanges that occurred in the run-up to the US-Israeli attack on Iran, perhaps the most unexpected was an invitation by Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff for the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, to join him and Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, for a visit to the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group. The idea that Araghchi would leave talks in Oman about the future of Iran’s nuclear program to tour a ship sent to the Gulf in an effort to dislodge his government seemed idiosyncratic at best. But it was symptomatic of the unorthodox way in which Kushner and Witkoff approached the nuclear talks that stretched through last year and this and have twice been halted by Israeli and US airstrikes. One Gulf diplomat, who has direct knowledge of the talks and is furious with Witkoff and Kushner’s behavior, described the pair as “Israeli assets that had conspired to force the US president into entering a war from which he is now desperate to get himself out of”. Witkoff does not pretend to regional expertise ….Quite why these indirect talks failed is not just a matter of historical curiosity, or a retrospective exercise in allocating blame for the start of such a disastrous war; it is relevant to whether a nuclear deal only is feasible or whether a broader agreement will be necessary now. This matters because after the war, if Iran’s government survives, calls inside the country to obtain a nuclear weapon will inevitably grow. …The Iranians now say they believe the talks were always a subterfuge, designed to create space for the US to assemble its military armada. Witkoff, for his part, said the Iranians were being “deceptive,” “full of subterfuge,” and “smelled fishy.” The kernel of what was proposed in Geneva is slowly emerging. British officials briefed on its contents thought it was a good deal and something to be built on, partly because, unlike the 2015 nuclear deal, there were no sunset clauses. A plan for a US-led regional enrichment consortium, which had been central to the earlier round of talks, had gone. A broad agreement was made for the return of full International Atomic Energy Agency oversight. Under IAEA monitoring and verification, Iran would get rid of its stockpile of 440kg of uranium already enriched to 60%. The stockpile, now thought to be under the rubble of the Fordow plant, would not be exported abroad, as had been proposed in the past, but downblended, a process recognized as largely irreversible. The biggest roadblock was that Iran refused to abandon its insistence on the right to enrich uranium for its future nuclear program, and this would require eventually being allowed to run thirty centrifuges, far fewer than at present. The threat they posed depended on the quality of the inspection regime. Iran accepted that due to the destruction of their Fordow and Natanz enrichment plants, there would be a multiyear pause in enrichment. On the final day of talks in Geneva, Iran offered a three-to-five-year moratorium, pausing the end of the Trump presidency, but after a phone consultation with Trump during a lunchtime break, Witkoff came back insisting on 10 years. The US said it would pay for nuclear fuel to be imported over that decade. By that final day – two days before the US and Israel launched their attack – the two negotiating teams had also reached agreement on the lifting of 80% of the sanctions imposed on Iran, a source involved in the talks said. Oman said at least three more months were needed to work on the details. It was certainly closer than the maximalist US demands on 29 May last year, a fortnight before Israel launched the 12-day war on Iran on 13 June. Before the final talks, Iran again allowed it to be known that the US would face a “commercial bonanza” if it signed up to the deal. Hamid Ghanbari, a deputy foreign minister, told Iranian businesspeople this month that “common interests in the fields of oil and gas, including joint fields [with neighboring countries], as well as investments in mining and even the purchase of civilian aircraft, have been included in the talks with the US”. Once the Geneva talks ended, with both sides only signing up to a statement about progress made, it was obvious to the Omani foreign minister that war was imminent, and he dashed to Washington to explain how close he felt the two sides were to a breakthrough. But his proposal of zero stockpiling did not have the same force as zero enrichment. The dash across the Atlantic reflected Oman’s belief that Witkoff and Kushner, either knowingly or through ignorance, were not feeding Trump the truth about the progress in the talks. There was also doubt about Trump’s focus. One previous attempt to engage Trump on the status of the talks deteriorated when the president switched the conversation to one of his favorite topics: shoes. In retrospect, it might have been better to send a more senior emissary to try to hold Trump’s attention. A day later, the war started…Katariina Simonen, adjunct professor at the Finnish national defense university, said: “The Trump administration is very impenetrable. It is a closed circle. The US arms control community has been at pains to offer real expert advice on nuclear physics, but the Trump team does not seem interested. The biggest frustration is that this deal would have allowed the IAEA back into Iran, and so many issues could then have been resolved.

Undoubtedly, Iran wanted to develop a nuclear deterrent capability much like its archenemy, Israel, and others like Pakistan and North Korea. However, it was then willing to compromise on the nuclear weapons issue. Given the dismal internal situation, Iran then had little choice in the matter. Therefore, it was indeed willing to enter a new nuclear deal with the US. Most importantly, Iran had then expressed hope that negotiations could bear fruit, but it had rejected what it said were a series of maximalist US demands on issues such as nuclear enrichment, ballistic missiles, and support for regional proxies.

Certainly, Arachis was the man who could have gotten it done. He had been Iran's top diplomat since 2024, played a key role in negotiations that led to Tehran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers - the agreement torn up by Trump in 2018.

Political insiders said he enjoyed the full confidence of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, describing him as one of Iran's most powerful foreign ministers yet.[cxxxiv] Therefore, it would have been wise for the Trump administration to have avoided going to war with Iran and instead negotiated a better nuclear deal than the JCPOA nuclear deal of 2015 during the Obama administration. Most importantly, wars are politicized by other means, as realists believe, and the US does not have a cogent political rationale for one. Another principle of International Relations is that states do not have foes or friends, only national interests. It is not in the national interest of the US to wage a war with Iran, especially when an overwhelmingly substantial number of its citizens are against the idea of war with Iran. Therefore, it would have been wise for the Trump administration to have let the diplomatic approach play out further without thwarting it in any way or fashion. There was then a glimmer of hope that a new nuclear deal could be achieved between the US and Iran. Emphasis on other matters like ballistic missiles and regional proxies was unrealistic and could have been avoided. Wisdom required that the US had then given peace a chance and not listened to Israel, for once. A disastrous catastrophe could have been avoided, as there was still a present window of opportunity for a nuclear deal.

Iran, on March 18, following strikes on its ?own energy infrastructure in South Pars and Azaliyah, attacked the world's largest gas plant in Qatar, targeted a refinery in Saudi Arabia, forced the UAE to shut gas facilities, and attacked two Kuwaiti refineries. Tehran’s retaliation against Israeli attacks on its own gas facilities marks a further escalation of the three-week war.[cxxxv]

The Iranian attacks, which drew a furious response from US President Donald Trump. He warned Iran not to attack Qatari LNG facilities again and threatened to "massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field" if it did so. He said Israel had attacked South Pars without informing Qatar or the U S.[cxxxvi]

The Iranian attack had hit Qatar’s terminal for shipping out liquefied natural gas. Qatar normally supplies some 20% of the world’s consumption of LNG, which can be carried by ship. The facility shut down after a drone attack. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz to most tanker traffic also left the gas nowhere to go. The impact on the global economy was immediate.

Global oil and natural gas prices soared on March 19, after Iran attacked a key natural gas facility in Qatar that can supply one-fifth of the world's gas, as well as two oil refineries in Kuwait. The attacks added to fears that the energy crisis triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic may be longer and more extensive than feared, with lasting damage to oil and gas production.[cxxxvii]

On March 19, oil and gas prices rose sharply after fresh strikes hit energy infrastructure in the Middle East, including Qatar's main gas facility. Gas prices jumped by about 25% on wholesale markets in the UK and Europe in early trading, before falling slightly. The price of gas in Europe had more than doubled the level seen when the war began. Oil prices are also trading higher, with Brent crude jumping 10% to above $119 a barrel at one point, before slipping back.[cxxxviii]

Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose to $116.38 per barrel, up from under $73 per barrel on the eve of the war. The European TTF benchmark for natural gas prices traded 24% higher on March 19. U.S. benchmark crude oil gained 1.1% to $96.45 a barrel, while the Henry Hub future contract, the benchmark for US natural gas, gained 5.1%. As oil and gas prices spiked, world shares retreated, and US futures edged 0.2% lower. Germany’s DAX lost 2.1% to 23,015.40, and the CAC 40 in Paris fell 1.5% to 7,848.88. Britain's FTSE 100 shed 1.7% to 10,134.02. In Asian share trading, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 fell 3.4% to 53,372.53 as the Bank of Japan opted to keep its benchmark interest rate on hold at 0.75%, citing the war with Iran as one factor. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng slipped 2% to 25,500.58, while the Shanghai Composite index shed 1.4% to 4,006.55. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 lost 1.7% to 8,497.80, and Taiwan's Taiex fell 1.9%. In India, which has also suffered from shocks to supplies of oil and gas, the Sensex lost 2.7%. On March 17, the S&P 500 fell 1.4%, dropping to a loss for the week so far. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.6%, and the Nasdaq composite slid 1.5%. The losses deepened after the Fed decided to keep its main interest rate steady, instead of resuming cuts meant to give the jobs market and economy a boost. A report released on March 17 showed inflation pressures were already being built before the war began. It said inflation at the U.S. wholesale level unexpectedly accelerated last month to 3.4%. On March 19, the US dollar fell to 159.10 Japanese yen from 159.88 yen. The euro rose to $1.1463 from $1. 1453. If the disruptions from Iran’s attacks on its Gulf Arab neighbors’ energy infrastructure kept oil and gas prices high for long, they could create a debilitating wave of inflation for the global economy.[cxxxix]

Earlier, as the war neared the three-week mark, most of Iran’s major energy facilities, as well as major assets in nearby countries, had been targeted. However, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) denied that U.S. and Israeli airstrikes have crippled Iran’s ability to produce missiles. Iran projected defiance, with the new supreme leader declaring that “safety must be taken away” from the country’s enemies and its armed forces vowing to pursue them even in tourist spots. [cxl]

Iran had effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz since the war began. The impact has been severe. Bounded to the north by Iran and to the south by Oman and the UAE, the waterway is only about 50km (31 miles) wide at its entrance and exit, and about 33km wide at its narrowest point. The Strait of Hormuz connects the Gulf with the Arabian Sea. About 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) usually passes through the strait, with oil coming not only from Iran but also from other Gulf states such as Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

The impact of closing the Strait had been severe. About 3,000 ships usually sailed through the strait each month, but this had dramatically decreased recently, with Iran threatening to attack tankers and other ships. At least 21 vessels had been hit or targeted, or had reported attacks, since the start of the war on March 18. Global fuel prices had soared in the wake of the war. Crude oil had risen above $100 a barrel - up almost 70% this year and 50% from a year ago.[cxli] Meanwhile, Qatar’s energy minister said Iranian strikes on LNG facilities reduced the country’s export capacity by 17%.[cxlii]

The benchmark price of Brent crude oil was up slightly, near $110, after surging the day before on growing fears that the largest ever disruption to world energy supplies would trigger a global economic shock. Israel did promise to avoid further attacks on Iran's South Pars gas field the day after an Iranian retaliatory strike on Qatar caused damage that will leave the world short of natural gas for years to come. Kuwait's state oil firm said its Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery had suffered multiple drone attacks that set some units alight. Flows of crude and petroleum have dropped by about twelve million barrels per day - 12% of global demand - due to output cuts and export ?halts by Gulf producers. Those barrels cannot easily be ?replaced by the transport, shipping, and manufacturing industries that rely on them, and will make themselves felt for years. International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Fatih Birol said that restoring oil and gas flows might take six months.[cxliii]

The escalating war had severely disrupted Middle Eastern energy infrastructure and global oil and gas flows. Israeli strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas field and the Azaliyah processing hub on March 18 triggered a wave of retaliatory attacks across the Gulf that hit refineries, gas plants, and export terminals in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, and Bahrain. Multiple key facilities had been damaged or shut down. Drone and missile attacks struck refineries and LNG plants in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar, while missile debris forced the shutdown of the UAE’s massive Hasham gas complex and repeated attacks targeted its Fujairah export terminal.

Bahrain declared force majeure after its Sitra refinery was attacked, and Iraq sharply cut output from its southern oilfields despite avoiding direct strikes. Several export hubs were spared direct damage but saw operations halted due to security threats, intercepted missiles, or precautionary shutdowns.

Iran’s military said strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure had led to “a new stage in the war”, in which it had attacked energy facilities linked to the US. “If strikes (on Iran’s energy facilities) happen again, further attacks on your energy infrastructure and that of your allies will not stop until it is destroyed,” Iranian military spokesperson Ebrahim Zulfiqar said.

Qatar Energy’s CEO said the Iranian attacks had knocked out a sixth of Qatar’s LNG export capacity, worth $20 billion a year, and that repairs ?would take three to five years. Israeli media reported that an Iranian strike hit oil facilities in Israel’s port of Haifa, causing damage but no casualties.[cxliv]

The strikes on regional energy facilities underscored Iran’s continued ability to exact a heavy price ?for the U.S.-Israeli campaign, and the limits of air defenses in protecting the Gulf’s most valuable and strategic energy assets.

The disruptions have sent energy prices surging worldwide. Middle East crude benchmarks hit record highs, U.S. diesel prices rose above $5 a gallon, and gasoline reached its highest level since late 2023. Asian refiners cut runs amid feedstock shortages, while governments from China to South Korea imposed export controls or price caps. The International Energy Agency called for a historic release of 400 million barrels from global reserves, underscoring the scale of the shock to energy markets and consumers. [cxlv]

Germany, Britain, ?France, Italy, the Netherlands, and Canada, as well as NATO non-member Japan, pledged in a joint statement to join "appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait”. The leaders of Germany and France, however, made clear that this presupposed ?an end to the fighting.

President Trump again lashed out at NATO members for not joining a US effort to open the Strait of Hormuz, calling the alliance “A PAPER TIGER” on social media. [cxlvi]  He said they were "COWARDS, and we will REMEMBER!" he wrote. The US allies were not consulted in the conflict with Iran. [cxlvii]

Earlier, on March 26,  three more US warships and roughly 2,500 more Marines are bound for the Middle East, where the U.S. military says it has about 50,000 troops. The Pentagon’s request for another $200 billion to fund the war would need congressional approval as the U.S. national debt hits a record $39 trillion.

Meanwhile, Iran fired on Israel and energy sites in neighboring Gulf Arab states, insisting that it can still build missiles and issuing a new threat to deny safety to its enemies in “parks, recreational areas, and tourist destinations” worldwide. Israel, meanwhile, pounded Tehran with airstrikes.

Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Iran can no longer enrich uranium or make ballistic missiles. U.S. leaders said weeks of US strikes have decimated Iran’s military. Little information has come from Iran about damage to its weapons and energy facilities since the war began three weeks ago. Netanyahu said Israel will refrain from any further attacks on the Iranian gas field at the request of Trump. Iran responded to Israel’s attack on the field, which Iranians depend on for their electricity, by intensifying targeting of energy infrastructure in other Middle East countries, sending oil and gas prices soaring.[cxlviii]

Meanwhile, more than 1,300 people in Iran have been killed during the war. Israeli airstrikes have killed over 1,000 people in Lebanon and displaced more than one million, according to the Lebanese government. In Israel, fifteen people have been killed by Iranian missile fire. At least 13 US military members had been killed. Four Palestinians in the occupied West Bank were killed on Wednesday as Israel and Iran exchanged airstrikes.[cxlix]

John Hudson, Warren P. Strobel, and Steve Hendrix, in their article “U.S.-Israeli rift widens over potential endgame in Iran,” published in the Washington Post on March 20, said that:[cl]

Israel’s assault on the world’s largest natural gas deposit has renewed tensions between the two allies’ end goals in Iran. When the United States and Israel started the war against Iran last month, their messages were perfectly coordinated on the sweeping goal of regime change. President Donald Trump told Iranians to seize their “only chance” for generations to “take over your government,” and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu implored them to “cast off the yoke of this murderous regime.” The comments reflect widespread criticism of President Donald Trump's handling of a war involving Iran, with many attributing the conflict to his impulsive decision-making and alleged manipulation by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Trump on March 21 threatened to "obliterate" Iran's power plants if Tehran does not fully reopen the Strait of ?Hormuz within 48 hours, a significant escalation barely a day after he talked about "winding down" the war.

"If Iran doesn't FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from ?this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!" Trump said on social media. Trump's ultimatum would expand the scope of U.S. strikes to infrastructure that affects daily civilian life in Iran. Trump and his administration have sent mixed messages about U.S. goals throughout the war, now in its fourth week, leaving US allies struggling to respond. Trump’s ultimatum on March 21 was the most abrupt shift yet. Trump's rhetoric pivoted from a drawdown to an ?explicit 48-hour countdown ?to strike Iran's power infrastructure, even as U.S. Marines and heavy landing craft continue heading to the region.

Iran’s largest power plants include the Damavand power plant near Tehran (2,868 megawatts of capacity), the Kerman plant in southeastern Iran (1,910 MW), and the Ramin steam power plant in Khuzestan province (1,890 MW), according to industry and energy databases. The country’s sole nuclear plant at Bushehr on Iran's southern coast produces about 1,000 MW. Earlier, Trump raised the idea of destroying Iran's power grid even while downplaying the notion. "We could take apart their electric capacity within one hour, and it would take them 25 years to rebuild," Trump told reporters on March 11. "So ideally, we're not going to be doing that."[cli]

Meanwhile, US ?voters appear increasingly concerned that the war could expand. ?Energy price shocks cause inflation, hitting consumers and businesses hard, ?a major political liability for Trump as he seeks to justify the war to the public before the November elections in which control of Congress is at stake...[clii]

The threat of Iranian attacks has kept most ships from getting through the strait, a narrow waterway that serves as the conduit for around a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, threatening a global energy shock. Its near-closure sent European gas prices ?surging as much as 35% last week.

Energy prices spiked last week after Iran responded to an Israeli attack on its major gas field by hitting Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City, ?which processes around a fifth of the world's liquefied natural gas, causing damage that will take years to repair. The threats to Gulf infrastructure came as the conflict entered dangerous, unfamiliar territory.

As of March 21, more than 2,000 people have been killed during the war. In Israel, fifteen people have been killed in Iranian strikes.[cliii]

On March 21, Trump was confronting a crisis that seemed to be slipping out of his hands: Global energy prices are surging, the US stands isolated from allies, and more ?troops are preparing to deploy despite his promise that the war would be only a "short excursion." A defensive Trump called other NATO countries "cowards" for refusing to help secure the Strait of Hormuz and insisted the campaign was ?unfolding according to plan. But his declaration on Friday that the battle "was Militarily WON" clashed with the reality of a defiant Iran that is choking off Gulf oil and gas supplies while launching missile strikes across the region.

Meanwhile, the war had also shown that Trump's once-iron grip over his MAGA movement was weakening, with prominent influencers speaking out against the conflict. While his base had mostly stood with him so far, analysts said that Trump's control could weaken in the coming weeks if gas prices kept on rising and US troops were deployed. “As the economics play themselves out,” Republican ?strategist Dave Wilson said, “people will start to say: 'Why am I ?paying high gas prices again? ... Why is the Strait ?of Hormuz now deciding whether I can take a vacation next month?'"[cliv]

Since the war's start on February 28, there has been a growing realization within the administration that the conflict and its consequences should have been better mapped out in advance. Trump's biggest misjudgment was over how Iran would respond to a conflict that it considered existential. Tehran had retaliated with its remaining missiles and ?a fleet of armed drones to ?offset its military superiority, striking neighboring Gulf states and mostly shutting down the Strait of Hormuz. Whether or not Trump and his aides foresaw the dangers, they have been unable to counter them effectively. As the conflict has dragged on, there have ?been increasing signs ?of Trump's frustration with his inability to control the narrative. In recent days, he has torn into the news media, advancing unfounded allegations of “treason” for reporting ?that he sees as undermining the war effort.[clv]

On March 21, President Trump posted that Washington was considering “winding down” its military operation against Iran. Trump said the US was close to meeting its goals but insisted that other countries should take the lead in policing the Strait of Hormuz, the shipping lane whose near-closure threatens a global energy shock. “We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran," Trump said.

Trump had also accused NATO allies of cowardice over ?their reluctance to ?help open the strait. Some allies have said they will consider it, but most say they are reluctant to join a war that Trump started without consulting them.[clvi]

An editorial, “Iran Attacks the Gulf Arabs. Will They Fight Back?” published in the Wall Street Journal on March 20, aptly remarked that: [clvii]

After Iran hit Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas hub with ballistic missiles on Wednesday, the Gulf monarchy expelled military attachés at the Iranian embassy. But not the ambassador. He can stay, which raises an uncomfortable question: What would it take for America’s Gulf allies to stop hedging their bets? The Gulf Arab caution is, in one sense, understandable. These states are on the front lines of Iran's attacks, and they must live in Tehran’s neighborhood after the bombing stops. The U.S. is not always dependable—see Joe Biden’s denunciation of the Saudis. The United Arab Emirates joined the Abraham Accords and seemed to be getting targeted for it.

Earlier, President Trump had set a March 23 deadline for Tehran to reopen the strait or face strikes on its power plants. He threatened to “obliterate” Iranian power plants, setting off a cascade of alarm bells around the region, with Tehran saying it would respond in kind. Oil-exporting Gulf countries said Iranian reprisals could further endanger the world economy.

Trump threatened that if Iran doesn’t fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, the US would act. Iran contended that the U.S. threat raised issues under international law against targeting civilian infrastructure.

Meanwhile, the US ambassador to the UN warned about Iran's potential to launch longer-range ballistic missiles that could hit much of Europe. It comes days after Iran carried out one of its farthest missile launches on record, targeting Diego Garcia, a joint U.S.-U.K. military base in the Indian Ocean. Australia and the UAE became the latest countries to back a joint statement now signed by 22 nations, signaling their readiness to help secure the Strait of Hormuz.[clviii]

Iran said on March 22 it would strike the energy and water systems of its Gulf neighbors in retaliation if U.S. President  Trump follows through with a threat delivered a day earlier to ?hit Iran's electricity grid in 48 hours, escalating the three-week-old war.

The prospect of tit-for-tat strikes on civilian infrastructure could further rattle global markets when they reopen and threaten the livelihoods of millions ?of civilians in the region who rely exclusively, in some cases, on desalination plants for water.

After more than three weeks of heavy US and Israeli bombardment that US officials say has sharply reduced Iran’s missile capabilities, Tehran continued to prove its ability to conduct attacks. Iran fired missiles at Israel while it was itself hit by a wave of US and Israeli strikes.[clix] Iranian military spokesperson Zolfaqari said, according to state media.

“If Iran’s fuel and ?energy infrastructure is attacked by the enemy, all energy infrastructure, as well as information technology...and water desalination facilities, belonging to the US and the regime in the region will be ?targeted pursuant to previous warnings,”

But while electricity attacks could hurt Iran, they would be potentially catastrophic for its Gulf neighbors, which consume around five times as much power per capita. Electricity ?makes their gleaming desert cities habitable, in part by powering the desalination plants that produce 100% of the water consumed in Bahrain and Qatar. Such plants use seawater to meet more than 80% of drinking water needs in the United Arab Emirates, and 50% ?of the water supply in Saudi Arabia.

Iran's Parliament Speaker Qalibaf doubled down, writing on X that critical infrastructure and energy facilities in the Middle East could be "irreversibly destroyed" should Iranian power plants be attacked.

Iran's IRGC said it would also mean the shipping lane where a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas normally transits along Iran's southern coast would remain shut. “The Strait of Hormuz will be completely closed and will not be opened until our destroyed power plants are rebuilt," the Guards said in a statement.

More than 2,000 people have been killed ?during the war that the U.S. and Israel launched on February 28, which has upended markets, spiked fuel costs, fueled global inflation fears, and convulsed the postwar Western alliance.

On March 21, oil prices ended the day at their highest in four years.

Iranian attacks have effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, causing ?the worst oil ?crisis since the 1970s. Its near-closure sent European gas prices surging by as much as 35%.[clx]

Meanwhile, the war in Lebanon had ?been taking place alongside a confrontation on a separate front between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah, backed by Iran, with Israel saying its troops had raided several of the armed group's sites in southern Lebanon.

Israeli military spokesperson Brigadier General Defrin said that Israel would continue to hit Iran nonstop and expects "weeks more of fighting against Iran and Hezbollah."

Hezbollah said it had attacked several border areas in northern Israel. Israeli emergency services said one person was killed in a kibbutz near the border. Israel later said it was checking ?whether the death ?was caused by Israeli fire.

Hezbollah had fired hundreds of rockets at Israel since it entered the regional war on March 2, prompting an Israeli offensive ?that has killed more than 1,000 people in Lebanon.

Israel said it had instructed the military to accelerate the demolition of Lebanese homes in "frontline villages" to end threats to Israelis, and to destroy all bridges over Lebanon's Litani River, which it said were used for "terrorist activity".[clxi]

In Gaza, there had ?been regular outbreaks ?of violence ?since a ceasefire went into effect in October following two years of devastating war triggered ?by Hamas-led attacks in Israel in October 2023. Gaza's ?health ministry says that at least 680 people have been killed by Israeli fire since the October ceasefire. Israel said four ?soldiers ?were killed by militants in Gaza in ?the same period.[clxii]

Meanwhile, Trump had listed his aims for the war in the Middle East on March 20, as he said the US was considering "winding down" its military efforts. He said the US was getting close to "completely degrading" Iran's missile capability and destroying its defense industrial base. He added that the US wants to end Iran's navy and air force as well as its anti-aircraft weaponry. Trump also said Iran should never be allowed to get close to nuclear capability and that the US would protect its Middle East allies "at the highest level.” Meanwhile, US Defense Secretary Hegseth said the US goals had not changed since the war began. He said the ?goals were to destroy Iran's missile launchers, its defense industrial base, and its navy, and to never allow Iran to get a nuclear weapon.[clxiii]

Meanwhile, major Asian stock markets fell sharply after the US and Iran threatened to intensify hostilities as the war entered its fourth week. Japan's Nikkei 225 was down by 4.8% in early trading, while the Kospi in South Korea was more than 5.5% lower. Oil prices fluctuated, with Brent crude about 0.8% lower at $111.25 a barrel, and US-traded oil was broadly flat at $98.18.[clxiv]

Meanwhile, the US was expected to send ?thousands of soldiers from the US Army's elite 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, adding to a massive US military buildup even as President Trump talked about a possible deal with Tehran to end the war. Before the added forces were sent ?to the ?region, there were 50,000 US troops there. News of reinforcements came just a day after Trump postponed threats to bomb Iranian power plants, saying there had been "productive" talks with Iran. But after Trump's Truth Social comment, Iran denied that any talks had been held. The US had conducted strikes against 9,000 targets inside Iran since U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran started on February 28. Thirteen US troops had been killed so ?far in the war, and 290 ?had been wounded.[clxv]

Meanwhile, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 35% of Americans approve of the U.S. strikes on Iran, down from 37% in a survey ?conducted last week. Some 61% disapproved of the strikes, compared to 59% last week.[clxvi]

On March 24, Trump sought a month-long ceasefire to discuss the 15-point plan. Trump said on March 25 the U.S. was in "negotiations" to end the war, which has already killed thousands and created the worst energy shock in history, leading ?to global fuel shortages and roiling markets.[clxvii]

Stocks rose, and oil prices fell on March 25 on reports that the U.S. is seeking a month-long ceasefire and had sent a 15-point ?plan to Iran for discussion, raising hopes for a resumption of oil exports out of the Persian Gulf.

Trump said the US was talking to "the right people" in Iran to end hostilities, adding the Iranians wanted to reach a deal very badly. Iran's powerful parliament speaker, Mohammad Qalibaf, had dismissed such reports as "fake news."[clxviii]

Meanwhile, Iran said it had launched missiles and drones at dawn in an attack on Israel as fighting continued in the region.[clxix] Two people were killed in the United Arab Emirates by debris from a missile, while Kuwait and Saudi Arabia intercepted missile and drone attacks. Iran signaled it could move to close or control a second key waterway, the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, with the help of Yemen’s Houthi rebels. The US had begun to mass ground troops near Iran. Here is what we know about the deployments.[clxx]

Meanwhile, Trump said Iran was eager to reach an agreement to end four weeks of fighting, a claim that contradicted Tehran’s position. Iranian officials have said they are reviewing a US proposal but have no intention of entering formal talks to wind down the conflict.

Meanwhile, Iran had launched wave eighty-two of "Operation True Promise 4" and targeted Israel, Al-Azraq airbase, and US bases using missiles and drones.[clxxi]

Trump said on March 25 that Iranian leaders "are negotiating, by the way, and they want to make a deal ?so badly, but they're afraid to say it because their own people will kill them. They are also afraid we will kill them".

"We do not intend to negotiate," Araghchi said. "We seek an end to the war on our own terms."

Pakistan had conveyed to Tehran a 15-point American plan to stop the war. Iran officials spared on Pakistan's request. But Iran responded negatively to the plan and said that the war would end only on Tehran's terms, which include guarantees against future attacks. Additionally, Iran has told intermediaries that Lebanon must be included in any ceasefire agreement with the US and Israel.

Meanwhile, Israel was skeptical Iran would agree to the terms, and that it was concerned US negotiators might make concessions. Israel also wants any agreement to preserve its choice to conduct pre-emptive strikes.

Trump has not identified who the US ?is negotiating with in Iran, with many high-ranking officials among the thousands of people killed across the Middle East since the US and Israel attacked Iran ?on February 28 and Iran launched strikes against Israel, US bases, and Gulf states.

 Meanwhile, Admiral Brad Cooper, head of US Central Command, said the US had hit two-thirds of Iran's production facilities for missiles and drones, and drone and missile launch rates were down by 90 percent.

In a video on X, Cooper also estimated that 92 percent of the Iranian navy's largest vessels had been damaged or destroyed. “They’ve now lost the ability to meaningfully project naval power and influence around the region and around the world," he said.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the war was "out of control" and had "gone too far." He said that the "world is staring down the barrel of a wider war" in the ?region. It is time to stop climbing the escalation ladder – and start climbing the diplomatic ladder," Guterres said at the UN headquarters in New York.

Meanwhile, missiles and drones kept striking targets across the Gulf. The Israeli military completed a wide-scale wave of strikes targeting infrastructure in several ?areas across Iran. The Pentagon is meanwhile planning to ?send thousands of ?airborne troops to the Gulf to give Trump more options to order a ground assault, adding to ?two contingents of Marines already on their way. The first Marine unit, aboard a huge amphibious assault ship, could arrive around the end of the month.

Meanwhile, Trump lamented in an all-caps Truth Social post. He wrote: “NATO NATIONS HAVE DONE ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO HELP WITH THE LUNATIC NATION, NOW MILITARILY DECIMATED, OF IRAN. THE U.S.A. NEEDS NOTHING FROM NATO, BUT “NEVER FORGET” THIS VERY IMPORTANT POINT IN TIME![clxxii]

The White House warned that President Trump was ready to "unleash hell" if Iran did not accept a peace plan to end the war, but Tehran insisted it would not negotiate. The ramped-up messages dashed hopes of any imminent de-escalation, with violence on the ground showing no sign of abating after almost four weeks.

China's foreign minister Wang Yi urged dialogue in separate calls with his Turkish and Egyptian counterparts, suggesting that both Tehran and Washington had shown signals they were willing to return to the negotiating table.

"With both the United States and Iran signaling a willingness to negotiate, a glimmer of hope for peace has emerged," Wang told Egyptian Foreign Minister Abdelatty. On March 25, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that "so far, no negotiations have taken place, and I believe our position is completely principled. Speaking of negotiations, now is an admission of defeat.”  [clxxiii]

Trump insisted on March 25 that Iran was taking part in peace talks. He said that:

"They are negotiating, by the way, and they want to make a deal so badly. But they're afraid to say it because they figure they'll be killed by their own people.”

Meanwhile, Turkey has engaged in "intense" diplomatic efforts to end the war by talking to both Washington and Tehran. [clxxiv]

On March 25, President Trump said that he wants to avoid a protracted war in Iran and that he hopes to bring the conflict to an end in the coming weeks.

Nearly one month into the war, the president has privately informed advisers he thinks the conflict is in its final stages, urging them to stick to the four-to-six-week timeline he has outlined publicly. White House officials planned a mid-May summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing with the expectation that the war would be concluded before the meeting began.[clxxv]

Mediators from Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan were pushing for a meeting between US and Iranian officials very soon. President Trump and his political allies have expressed enthusiasm for talks.

On March 24, the U.S. sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war, which centers around earlier Trump administration demands of Tehran. The proposal calls on Iran to dismantle its three main nuclear sites, remove Iran's stocks of highly enriched uranium, halt enrichment, curtail its ballistic missile program, ?and cut off funding ?for regional allies.

In return, Iran would have nuclear-related sanctions lifted, and the US would aid the country’s civilian nuclear program. The plan broadly reflects the US proposal discussed with Iran before the war started. President Trump had then accused Tehran of not negotiating in good faith. Iran’s new, harder-line leadership said it now has higher demands of the US, such as seeking reparations for the weeks of attacks.[clxxvi]

Meanwhile, in a positive development, on March 26, Israel removed Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi and Parliamentary Speaker ?Qalibaf from its hit list after Pakistan urged Washington to press Israel not to target them.[clxxvii] Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey are playing the role of mediators between ?Tehran and Washington to end the Iran war. Islamabad has kept direct contact with both Washington and Tehran at a time ?when such ?channels are frozen for most other countries. Islamabad has also been seen as a venue for peace talks.

Trump has said Iran was desperate to make a deal, while Araqchi said Tehran was reviewing the US proposal but had no ?intention of holding talks to wind down the conflict.[clxxviii]

Pakistan’s foreign minister had handed a 15-point peace plan to Iran, as it acts as an intermediary between Tehran and the US. Pakistan had functioned as a key intermediary in the current bout of diplomacy between the US and Iran, delivering a 15-point plan proposed by Washington that addresses issues like Tehran’s nuclear ambitions and its ballistic missile program. Trump administration officials were working to arrange a meeting in Pakistan this weekend to discuss an off-ramp to the war in Iran.[clxxix]

On March 26, Pakistan said Iran was considering the US’s proposals in indirect talks, while President Trump said Tehran ‘better get serious soon.’ The US and Iran were engaged in indirect talks through messages it was relaying, and that Tehran was considering Washington’s proposals to end the conflict.[clxxx]

President Trump said Iran’s leadership “better get serious soon” about talks. Trump, who had n said earlier that he wants the war brought to an end in the coming weeks, also said public statements from Iran’s leaders were different from their private comments.

Laurence Norman, in his excellent article “The Narrow Path to a U.S.-Iran Deal,” said that:[clxxxi]

Both sides will have to scale back demands, but their history points to a way to get it done. The prospects of a diplomatic deal ending the war between the U.S. and Iran look dim right now. But Middle East veterans say there is a pathway for an agreement if the two sides want to engage.

On March 26, Trump said Iran was desperate for a deal to end nearly four weeks of ?fighting, contradicting the Iranian foreign minister, who said Tehran was reviewing a US proposal but had no intention of holding talks to wind down the war. The conflicting statements came as the economic and humanitarian toll ?of the war mounted, with fuel shortages spreading worldwide, sending companies and countries scrambling to mitigate the fallout.

Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said that while there had been no dialogue or negotiation with the U.S., various messages had been exchanged through intermediaries.

"Messages being conveyed through our friendly countries and us responding by stating our positions or issuing the necessary warnings is not called negotiation or dialogue," Araqchi said.

Trump said Iranian leaders "are negotiating, by the way, and they want to make a ?deal so badly, but they're afraid to say it because their own people will kill them. They are also afraid we'll kill them".[clxxxii]

Even if they happen, any negotiations will prove exceedingly difficult, ?given the maximalist positions laid out by both sides.

A 15-point U.S. proposal to end the conflict includes demands ranging from dismantling Iran's nuclear program and ?curbing its missiles to effectively handing over control of the Strait of Hormuz, according to sources and reports.

But Iran has hardened its stance since the war began, demanding guarantees against future military action, compensation for losses, and formal control of the Strait, Iranian ?sources say. It also told intermediaries that Lebanon must be included in any ceasefire deal, regional sources said.

Trump has not identified who the US is negotiating with in Iran, with many high-ranking officials among the thousands of people killed across the Middle East since the ?US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28. Iran has since launched strikes against Israel, US bases, and Gulf states.

Israel took Iran's foreign minister Araqchi and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Qalibaf off its hitlist after Pakistan asked Washington not to target them.[clxxxiii]

Meanwhile, with stock markets weak, ?gas prices high ?, and his approval ratings at an all-time low, Trump has strong incentives to find a solution before the conflict escalates further beyond his control, and ahead ?of the November mid-term elections for Congress. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted March 20-23 found 61% of Americans disapproved of Trump.[clxxxiv]

On March 26, US-Israeli strikes on Iran continued as Iranian missiles targeted central and northern Israel. The GCC Secretary-General al-Budaiwi says that Iran’s actions, including the attacks and closing the Strait of Hormuz, have “overcome all red lines.” The US threatened Iran to accept defeat or be “hit harder” than ever before, as Tehran rejects talks and pledges to continue retaliating.

On March 26, 2026, President Trump issued a warning to Tehran on social media to “get serious soon” on negotiating a deal to end the war. The post comes a day after Trump said a deal to end the war is near, despite Tehran’s dismissal of his 15-point ceasefire plan.[clxxxv]

Israel said on March 26 that it killed Commodore Alireza Tangsiri, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s navy. Israel’s Defense Minister, Katz, said Tangsiri had been killed along with other senior naval commanders in a strike overnight.

The secretary-general of a bloc of Gulf Arab countries said that Iran is charging fees for ships to safely transit the Strait of Hormuz. Industry experts say some ships are paying in Chinese yuan to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of all traded oil and natural gas is transported in peacetime.[clxxxvi]

Israeli forces pound Lebanon as Prime Minister Netanyahu says Israel is expanding what he calls a “buffer zone” in southern Lebanon.[clxxxvii]

Meanwhile, the death toll from the war had risen to more than 1,500 people in Iran, nearly 1,100 people in Lebanon, 20 in Israel, and 13 US military members, as well as several civilians on land and sea in the Gulf region. Millions of people in Lebanon and Iran had been displaced.[clxxxviii]

The prospect of tit-for-tat strikes on civilian ?infrastructure could further rattle global markets and threaten the livelihoods of millions of civilians in the region who rely on electricity to power their cities and supply fresh water. The war had massively disrupted shipping, sending crude oil prices up around 40%, causing liquefied natural gas prices to spike, and prices for nitrogen-based fertilizers, critical to food production, rose around 50%.

Stock indexes fell sharply on March 26, with the Nasdaq dropping more than 2% to confirm a correction, and Brent oil jumped to more than $105 a barrel as hopes diminished for a ?quick resolution to the war.

Despite Trump's upbeat assessment, Iran continued to retaliate against U.S. and Israeli strikes by hitting Israel and US bases. It also struck Gulf states and effectively blocked Middle East fuel exports via the Strait of ?Hormuz, which carries about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas.

Trump suggested on March 26 that Iran let 10 oil tankers transit the strait as a goodwill gesture in negotiations, including some Pakistan-flagged vessels. Trump said the US would become Iran's "worst nightmare" if ?it did not ?follow U.S. demands, which include opening the Strait of Hormuz and ending its nuclear program. He said taking control of Iran's oil was a possibility, but gave no details.

Meanwhile, the 15-point U.S. proposal, conveyed to Tehran by Pakistan, ?had been reviewed in detail by Iran by senior Iranian ?officials and the representative of Iran's supreme leader, who ?felt it served only US and Israeli interests.

The proposal included demands ranging from dismantling Iran's nuclear program to curbing its missiles and effectively handing over control of the strait, according to sources and reports.

Pakistan's foreign minister said "indirect talks" between the U.S. and Iran were taking place through messages relayed by Islamabad, ?with other states, including Turkey and Egypt, also supporting mediation efforts.[clxxxix]

Pakistan had now appeared as a key intermediary between Iran and the US, trying to secure talks to end the war. On March 26, Foreign Minister Dar confirmed Pakistan’s involvement. Pakistan had strong credentials as the only country in the region enjoying good relations with the US and Iran. Concurrently, it enjoyed strategic relations with Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, and Türkiye.[cxc]

Pakistan had avoided taking sides and tried instead to keep stable relations with all parties. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif condemned both the US-Israeli strikes that killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Tehran’s retaliation against its neighbors. He and FM Dar have both been busy, talking to senior Iranian government ministers and regional leaders.

Pakistan shares a 900-kilometre border in its southwest with Iran, and deep historical, cultural, and religious links. Iran was the first country to recognize Pakistan after its independence in 1947. Pakistan returned the favor for the Islamic Republic after the 1979 revolution. They cooperated against Moscow during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. Pakistan also has some Iranian diplomatic interests in Washington, where Tehran has no embassy. And it is home to the world’s second-biggest Shia Muslim population after Iran.

Chief of Defence Forces and Chief of the Army Staff Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir has built up a personal rapport with US President Donald Trump and spoke to him earlier. PM Shehbaz praised Trump’s “bold and visionary” intervention, while CDF Munir said the US leader deserved the Nobel Peace Prize for stopping an escalation between the nuclear-armed neighbors. On Iran, Trump said Pakistan knows the country “better than most.” Personal relations have long helped boost bilateral ties shaped by shifting strategic interests.

Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a strategic mutual defense agreement in 2025. Pakistan has kept Riyadh on side, and the prime minister recently visited for talks with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.[cxci]

Earlier, Trump had urged Iranian leaders to negotiate an end to the nearly month-long war or face further assassinations of senior officials amid intensified action by the US and Israel. That threat came as Israel said it had “blown up and eliminated” the IRGC’s naval commander, Tangsiri, and several senior officers in a strike on the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas.

Heavy strikes by Israeli or US warplanes were also reported around Isfahan, home to a major Iranian airbase and other military sites, as well as one of the nuclear sites bombed by the US during the 12-day war in June.

Iran has strenuously denied it is “begging to make a deal,” as Trump claimed, and continued its retaliatory strikes across a swathe of the Middle East on March 26.

Trump’s new threat was among a series of statements made by the US president in Washington and on social media on Thursday in which he again criticized Nato allies, described Iran as producing “great negotiators” but “lousy fighters”, and repeated his claim that the war he launched last month had already been won.[cxcii]

Meanwhile, the US and Israel kept on pounding Iran’s missile-launching sites, hitting some repeatedly across a month of war. But Tehran’s missiles also keep flying. Iran has shifted to firing from deeper inside its territory with longer-range missiles, military analysts and former U.S. officers said, after airstrikes early in the war inflicted a heavy toll on Iranian bases and truck launchers near the Persian Gulf coastline. Iran is firing far fewer missiles now, down to around a dozen a day, but they have turned them against less-defended targets in Israel and Gulf Arab states, causing greater damage in some cases.[cxciii]

Though the US claimed to have destroyed most of Iran’s naval capabilities, Tehran has smaller boats capable of laying mines and anti-ship cruise missiles that can be launched from ashore. Either weapon could make the strait impassable for shipping.

On March 27, Yemen’s Houthis said that there was “no cause for concern” about the safety of shipping in the Red Sea, and that “at present there is no reason to prevent this trade from continuing”. With Hormuz effectively all but closed, crude exports from the Saudi Arabian port of Yanbu in the Red Sea via an alternate route have surged. The Houthis could potentially try to strike those vessels, further destabilizing wobbling energy markets.

There are fears that if Trump follows through on threats to deploy troops to seize Kharg Island or elsewhere, Tehran may ask the Houthis to strike shipping in the Red Sea, through which about $1tn worth of goods passed each year before the war. Earlier, Malik al-Houthi, the Houthis’ leader, did not say whether the armed rebel group would fight alongside Iran if asked to join the conflict.

Analysts said it was exceedingly difficult to see any immediate pathway to an agreement given the gap between the two sides and the continuing widening of the conflict, which has directly involved more than a dozen countries from Azerbaijan to Oman.

Thousands of US Marines and airborne troops have been sent to the region and could be used to seize Kharg Island, Iran’s principal hub for oil exports, or other strategic points in the Gulf. Such a move would mark a significant escalation in the conflict.

Bahreini, Iran’s top envoy to UN institutions in Geneva, warned March 26 that any US and Israeli attempt to mount a ground invasion of Iran would be a “big” mistake.

Israel says its invasion of southern Lebanon is aimed at protecting its northern border towns from attacks by Hezbollah and setting up a defensive buffer zone. Eighteen people have been killed in Israel in the war.[cxciv]

On March 27, President Trump said he would delay a threatened strike on Iran’s energy infrastructure and extend his deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz until April 6, saying talks to end the war are “going very well.” The move marks a pullback from Trump’s earlier warning that the US would target Iran’s energy plants if the crucial shipping lane remained closed. Trump’s announcement came after US stocks fell sharply and oil prices rose, as doubt took over again on Wall Street about a possible end to the war. The S&P 500 slumped 1.7% for its worst day since January and is back on track for a fifth straight losing week. That stretches back to before the Iran war began, and it would be the longest such losing streak in four years. Iran has been blocking ships it sees as tied to the US and Israel from the Strait while allowing limited traffic, and Tehran appears to be charging fees for safe passage.[cxcv]

Meanwhile, Israel has moved thousands of troops across the border into Lebanon, and Israeli forces and Iran-backed Hezbollah militants have been fighting on the ground for at least three weeks. As of March 27, the war has killed more than 1,900 people in Iran, nearly 1,100 in Lebanon, and 13 U.S. military members, as well as several civilians on land and sea in the Gulf region. Eighteen people have died in Israel, while three Israeli soldiers have also been killed in Lebanon. Millions of people in Lebanon and Iran have been displaced.[cxcvi]

The US-Israel war of choice is being relentlessly fought with a much-weakened and even beleaguered Iran. Israel wants to destroy Iran completely, even break it into pieces, so that it never challenges it again. Iran has never posed an imminent threat to the US, and therefore, the brazen American attacks on Iran now border on international crimes. The US does not have a war strategy to speak of, and the mercurial nature of President Trump is making it worse. We are now approaching an American ground operation as the Marines head to the Middle East. Thirteen American service members have already been killed, and more will surely follow. War could have been avoided, but it was not. That is a historic mistake and will prove tragic to the US and the Middle East region. Even now, Trump can declare victory as Iran’s nuclear capabilities have been totally vanquished forever. After all, wars are politics by other means, as the strategist Clausewitz says. The US does not have a clear war aim to begin with and has decided not to go for regime change or breakup of Iran, as Israel desires. Therefore, after a few more days of relentless and massive strikes on Iranian military targets, the US can declare “Mission Accomplished” and end the war. But the US faces a dilemma as Iran does not want to end the war, as it seeks revenge for its own losses and destruction. If Russia and China step up their aid, which they might do as an opportunity presents itself for them, which simply cannot be missed, then the war will be prolonged further. For the sake of the millions of helpless people inhabiting the Middle East region, we hope it is otherwise. For the sake of America itself, we hope the war ends soon. Alas, it will not, and that is tragic, to say the least.

The Strait of Hormuz is of great significance, and Iran has the leverage over its adversaries. Al-Hashemi, in his excellent article “The Strait of Hormuz is not just an oil chokepoint,” published in Al Jazeera on March 27, 2026, explained that:[cxcvii]

The Strait of Hormuz…  has become the single point where global order faces its greatest vulnerability. Through these waters – 167km (104 miles) long, 39km (24 miles) wide at their narrowest point – pass an estimated 30,000 vessels per year. They carry not only a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil and liquified natural gas but also the urea needed for the fertilizers that grow its food, the aluminum that constructs its infrastructure, the helium that cools its semiconductors, and the petrochemicals that sustain its pharmaceutical and manufacturing base. The Strait of Hormuz is not an oil chokepoint. It is the aortic valve of globalized production – and like any valve, when it fails, the entire circulatory system collapses…. The standard characterization of the Strait of Hormuz as an energy corridor is flawed. The transportation of oil and liquefied natural gas accounts for about 60 percent of its regular traffic. Closure inevitably triggers cascading failures across several industries, including agriculture, manufacturing, construction, and semiconductor production. More than 30 percent of the world’s trade in ammonia, nearly 50 percent of urea, and 20 percent of diammonium phosphate – all key for the fertilizer and agriculture sectors – are transported through the strait. Some 50 percent of global sulfur, a key part of metal processing, is also exported through this narrow passage. Vessels carrying a third of the world’s helium, used in various technologies from semiconductors to MRIs, go through the strait as well. 10 percent of global aluminum and a sizable chunk of plastic produced in the Gulf also pass through. The Strait of Hormuz is also a major thoroughfare for food supplies for Gulf countries, which are highly dependent on food imports. All this data reveals systemic fragility not just in the region, but in the world. Unlike oil, fertilizer cannot be rerouted; there are no pipelines for ammonia or urea. When the strait closes, the nitrogen supply chain simply stops. Synthetic nitrogen fertilizers feed 48 percent of the global population. The mid-April deadline for Northern Hemisphere nitrogen application means disruptions in March translate directly into lower yields in September. Aluminum potlines, once shut down, do not restart quickly – the metal solidifies in the cells, requiring weeks of controlled procedures and incurring substantial added cost. For the more than 100 million people in and around the Gulf, money cannot buy food security when the physical route is closed. Saudi Arabia imports more than 80 percent of its food. Qatar imports 85 percent. The Gulf is wealthy, but it is structurally dependent on a single 39km passage for survival. The stress test. The crisis that began on February 28 is structurally unique. It is the first time the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, and there is a real risk of Bab al-Mandeb (“the Gate of Tears”), a narrow passage on the Red Sea, following suit, if the Houthis choose to add pressure on the global economy in support of their Iranian allies. If that happens, it will mean that two of the world’s three critical maritime chokepoints would be shut down at the same time. The Suez Canal blockage of 2021 was a single-point, six-day disruption. The COVID-19 pandemic was a demand shock. The Ukraine war disrupted specific commodities through specific corridors. The current conflict has shut down the arterial system itself. The problem is not just physical disruption and attacks on vessels. It is also the reaction of the financial system. Within 48 hours of the start of the war, the world’s largest marine insurance mutuals issued cancellation notices for war risk extensions covering the Gulf. By March 5, commercial protection and indemnity cover was non-existent. The result was a phantom blockade, a condition in which legal and financial barriers prevent vessel movement even in the absence of physical obstacles. Even if the strait had been physically clear, no commercial vessel could afford to sail through it. Commodity traders lined up $7bn in emergency credit to avoid forced liquidation. Letters of credit for Hormuz-dependent cargoes were refused by European banks. This was not a supply disruption. It was a cardiac arrest of commerce. Ports outside the chokepoint became the sole practical alternative. But even the bypass was under fire: Iranian drones struck Oman’s Salalah and Duqm, forcing them to suspend operations. The alternative is being attacked while it is being built. A month into this war, the assumption that the flows of strategic goods through the Strait of Hormuz could be taken for granted – that geographical concentration was a cost optimization rather than a systemic risk – has been exposed as collective strategic myopia. The international community must recognize Hormuz as global critical infrastructure, requiring multilateral security guarantees extending beyond energy, strategic reserves covering fertilizers and metals alongside petroleum, and infrastructure dispersal to reduce the concentration of critical flows in a single 39km passage. The world has now seen what happens when Hormuz fails. The next closure will not be a surprise; it will be a test of whether the system has adapted. A single geographic point, named for a god of order, still holds the power to disrupt it.

Undoubtedly, Iran has gained tremendous leverage by closing the Strait of Hormuz, and the US is trying its best to open it. Trump is making hectic efforts to get allies to make an international force to reopen the Straits.

On March 27, the UAE told the US and other Western allies that it would take part in a multinational maritime task force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It was trying to push dozens of countries to create a “Hormuz Security Force” to defend the strait from Iranian attacks and escort shipping. The UAE had faced more Iranian attacks than any other country in the region, including Israel. But several US allies had said they had no immediate plans to send ships to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, rebuffing a Trump request for military support to keep the ?vital waterway open.

France said on March 26 it had held talks with around 35 countries seeking partners and ?proposals for a mission to reopen the strait, but only once the US-Israeli war on Iran ends.

Iran had effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, spiking energy prices and fueling fears of global inflation.[cxcviii]

The UAE is also working on a UN Security Council resolution with Bahrain to provide any future task force with a mandate, but Russia and China could oppose the move, the report added.

UN Security Council members have begun negotiating resolutions to protect commercial shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz, including a Bahraini draft that would authorize the use of "all necessary means". The UAE may join a US-led effort to protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz after Iran all but shut the waterway to ships.

The waterway is vital to the economy of the UAE. Iran has repeatedly attacked an UAE port found outside the Gulf that is used to load oil exports. Additionally, Kuwait's Shuwaikh port was hit by drones, causing material damage with no injuries reported, the Kuwait ports authority said on March 27.[cxcix]

Oil prices fell more than 1% on March 27, though that only partially pared the previous day's surge amid growing anxiety that the conflict will last far longer than first thought.

Meanwhile, Brent is up almost 50% since the war began on February 28, while West Texas Intermediate has risen around 40%. Equities struggled following heavy losses on Wall Street. Tokyo and Seoul, which had been the standout performers in the first two months of the year, were among the biggest losers, while Hong Kong, Sydney, Wellington, Taipei, Jakarta, and Manila were also sharply lower. Shanghai and Singapore fluctuated.

Investors are also increasingly skeptical about the messaging from the White House, with Trump often flipping between threats and talk of peace."

Meanwhile, the World Trade Organization warned the global trading system was experiencing the "worst disruption in the past 80 years", while the World Bank said it was prepared to provide immediate financial aid to emerging market countries.

That came as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned US inflation could hit more than 4% this year because of the spike in crude prices. That compares with its earlier projection of 2.8%. The prospect of another spike in the cost of living led several Federal Reserve officials to express concern about the outlook for the world's top economy and suggested interest rates were unlikely to come down any time soon.

With the economic impact worsening, governments around the world are being forced to act.

Spain approved a sweeping $5.8 billion package including steep cuts to energy taxes, while Poland's prime minister announced a series of measures to address soaring fuel costs, including reduced taxes and price ceilings. South Korea said it will roll out a $17 billion "wartime" supplementary budget and expand fuel tax cuts.[cc]

What Next?

The US should end the war despite the aims of its partner, Israel. The Trump administration should now grasp the opportunity and make peace with Iran. There is no doubt that the Iranian regime is extremely repressive, cruel, and corrupt, but that does not mean that the US should replace it. Anyways, a replacement of the Iranian regime would require a massive ground invasion, which is not even contemplated by the Trump administration. Therefore, the idea of whether there is any should be discarded at once. After all, the US does business with other even more repressive regimes like India, Egypt, North Korea, China, and even Israel itself. It is not the responsibility of the US to intervene in other nations’ internal affairs and set things right, as it sees it. This would be a violation of international law and the UN charter, also. It is time for the US to make peace with Iran by recognizing the Islamic regime, no matter how much it is disliked by the American establishment. The American people overwhelmingly want peace, not war with Iran. Therefore, the Trump administration should have taken the difficult path of diplomacy with Iran to resolve the outstanding nuclear issue. Unfortunately, that did not happen as both the US and Israel had decided otherwise. Many American leaders could not come to understand the true nature of the political situation and the political compulsions of the Iranian nation. The Trump administration faced a choice, and it erred because it listened to only favored viewpoints. In hindsight, Trump should have ignored such hawkish views. But they were not, and that was the problem with the current Trump administration. Too many extremist views got accepted in their top decision-making circles. Obviously, that made for bad policy decisions like the mess in the war in Iran.

Iran has responded to the US-Israeli strikes with waves of drone and missile attacks not only toward Israel but also against Gulf states hosting US military installations, including Saudi Arabia, widening the conflict’s regional impact. The escalation has struck key infrastructure across Gulf countries, including airports, ports, hotels, and oil and military facilities. The GCC has been struck badly and is now vociferously condemning Iran. But these vehement comments can be ignored as the Gulf Arabs are not about to enter the war. Given their own weaknesses, these countries are incapable of taking on the Iranians at all. Therefore, all they can do is outright condemnations of Iran and, like the UAE, join the US international force to open the strait. However, military action to do just that is not possible. Iran has the advantage of its strategic location, being north of the Strait of Hormuz. Thus, geography is to its advantage, and the Iranians will exploit it to the best of their ability.

Meanwhile, disruptions to oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have intensified global economic concerns. Airspace closures across the region have also forced airlines to cancel thousands of flights, marking the largest disruption to global air travel since the COVID-19 pandemic.[cci]

War can prove to be a disaster for the US as the costs pile up gradually. Already, billions of dollars of highly sophisticated military equipment have been lost or significantly damaged since the U.S. and Israel began striking thousands of targets across Iran more than three weeks ago. Iranian ballistic missiles and drones have caused the bulk of the damage on the ground.

Battle damage and replacement of losses over the first three weeks of the war likely cost roughly $1.4 billion to $2.9 billion, according to Elaine McCusker, a top Pentagon budget official during the first Trump administration who has been tracking the cost of the conflict for the American Enterprise Institute. The higher estimate includes damage to a Qatari radar housed on a U.S. air base in the country.[ccii]

The US can only determine with certainty that it has destroyed about a third of Iran's vast missile arsenal as the U.S. and Israeli war on the country ?nears its one-month mark.

The status of around another third is less clear, but bombings damaged, destroyed, or buried those missiles in underground tunnels and ?bunkers. The assessment showed that while most of Iran's missiles are either destroyed or inaccessible, Tehran still has a significant missile inventory and may be able to recover some buried or damaged missiles once fighting stops.

Meanwhile, Trump is weighing whether to escalate ?the conflict by deploying U.S. troops to Iranian shores along the Strait.

"The problem with the straits is this: let's say we do a great job. We say we got 99% (of their ?missiles). 1% is unacceptable, because 1% is a missile going into the hull of a ship that costs a billion dollars," Trump said on March 26. [cciii]

The Trump administration has said it aims to weaken Iran's military by sinking its navy, destroying its missile and drone capability, and ensuring that Iran never has a nuclear weapon.

Central Command has ?said its operation, known officially as "Epic Fury", is on schedule or even ahead of plans laid out before the February 28 start of the US and Israeli attacks on Iran.

U.S. strikes have hit more than 10,000 Iranian military targets and, according to Central Command, have sunk 92 percent of the Iranian navy's large vessels. The US military has published imagery showing attacks on the factories that produce Iran's weaponry and has stressed that it is not just pursuing missile and drone stockpiles, but ?the industry that ?makes them. Still, Central Command has declined to say precisely how much of Iran's missile or drone capability has been destroyed. Part of the problem is figuring out how many Iranian missiles were stockpiled in underground bunkers before the war started. The U.S. has not shown its estimate of the size of Iran's pre-war missile stockpile. Israeli military officials say Iran had 2,500 ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel before the war. Over 335 missile launchers have been "neutralized", being 70% of Iran's launch capacity. Israeli officials have not publicly shown how many actual missiles they believe Iran still owns.[cciv]

Despite the heavy pace of US strikes, Iran ?has shown that it has not run out of weapons.

The Trump administration may have overstated how much US strikes have degraded Iranian capabilities. Iran can continue to conduct strikes ?from the Bid Kaneh military facility, which ?has been heavily bombed. Iran has managed to sustain this, showing the U.S. was overstating the success of its operation. Iran kept about 30 percent of its missile capabilities. It had more than a dozen large underground facilities where it has been able to keep launchers and missiles. Hegseth acknowledged the challenge posed by ?Iran's tunneling in remarks on March 19, saying, "Iran is a vast country. And just like Hamas and their tunnels (in Gaza), they've poured any aid, any economic development, humanitarian aid, into tunnels and rockets."

"But we are hunting them down methodically, ruthlessly and overwhelmingly, as no other military in the world can do, and ?the results speak for themselves," he said, without providing details on the percentage of missiles or drones destroyed.[ccv]

Rubio discussed with G7 foreign ministers the possibility that Iran, even after the conflict ends, could try to impose shipping tolls through the Strait of Hormuz. Rubio said European and Asian countries that receive help from trade through the waterway should contribute to efforts to secure free passage.[ccvi]

Meanwhile, the US has dispatched two contingents of thousands of Marines to the region, the first of which is due to ?arrive around the end of March aboard a huge amphibious assault ship. The Pentagon is also expected to deploy thousands of elite airborne soldiers. In Iran, more than 1,900 people have been killed and at least 20,000 injured. Attacks on Israel by Iran's Lebanese ally Hezbollah ?have also prompted an Israeli onslaught that has displaced a fifth ?of Lebanon's population.

Yemen's Houthis said they were ready to intervene militarily ?under certain conditions, including if new allies join the US and Israel in their war against Iran or if the Red Sea is used to launch attacks on Iran.[ccvii]

The US, which has set out to ?neutralize Iran's long-range strike capabilities, can only confirm that about a third of the country's missile arsenal has been destroyed. As the damage mounts and with no end in sight, Gulf Arab states are telling the U.S. that any deal must not merely end the war but also permanently curb Iran's missile and drone capabilities and ensure global energy supplies are never again weaponized. Crude prices swing with global crises, geopolitical tensions, supply shocks, and economic cycles. Stock markets continued their slide on Friday, while the Brent crude oil benchmark topped $112, having risen more than 50% since the war began. In the US, fuel prices are rising; diesel in California hit an all-time high at an average of $7.17 a gallon. Long-term oil prices have risen sharply since the start of the Iran war. [ccviii]

Patrick Wintour, in his excellent article “A war of regression: how Trump bombed the US into a worse position with Iran,” The Guardian, March 28, 2026, said: [ccix]

Four weeks into a war that was going to take four days, and that has so far cost the US about $30-40bn and Israel $300m a day, Washington is further away from a diplomatic agreement with Iran than it was in May 2025.Not only has the war failed to persuade Iran to agree to dismantle its nuclear program comprehensively and irreversibly the US demanded in a 15-point paper that it tabled on 23 May last year, Washington is now having to negotiate to reopen the strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway that has been open ever since the invention of the dhow, with a short exception of a tanker war in the 1980s between Iran and Iraq. This regression is proving to be perplexing for the American high command. Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of Defense, recently said that “the only thing prohibiting transit in the strait right now is Iran shooting at shipping,” but this was not right. Iran has not been shooting at shipping that much in recent weeks. Instead, it is the fear of Iran shooting at shipping that is scaring off insurers and tanker owners. Still worse from the US perspective, Iran has set up a waterside stall whereby prime ministers and tanker owners can bargain with the Iranian navy over the toll they are willing to pay for their tankers to be given “free passage”. Iran plans to turn the strait into a money spinner, just as Egypt charges for access to the Suez Canal. By some calculations, given the massive scale of the traffic that passes through the strait each year, Iran could raise $80bn a year. If a law currently being rushed through the Iranian parliament passes, tankers carrying oil from favored non-hostile nations such as India, Japan, Pakistan, South Korea, and China will be waved through or offered cheaper rates. Little wonder Trump is thrashing around. The US, along with Israel, continues to bomb Iran, but it has now twice pushed back the date of threatened strikes on Iran’s civilian power stations – an action that would constitute a war crime. He continues to insist Iran has been defeated, and yet Iran continues to behave as if it is not. That is partly because this struggle is not just being fought in command posts, but on the trading floor. The price of oil is the key metric for Iran’s success, along with its remaining supply of missile launchers. As a result, 95% of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, depriving the markets of 10-13 million barrels of oil each day. Such is Iran’s stranglehold that even Trump describes Iran allowing ships through as a “present” to the US…. For Iran, oil trading anything above $100 a barrel is pitched high enough to destroy demand and disrupt the world economy. But it is not just oil. The strait provides passage for chemicals, helium, metals, and fertilizers. As during the COVID pandemic, the world is discovering something new about the interconnectedness of supply chains and how geography has blessed Iran with a unique chance to break these chains.… Domestic politics in the US is also becoming ominous. Curt Mills, the executive director of the American Conservative, says: “Trump’s legacy is at stake in Iran: if the war drags on, that will be all that will be remembered of his second term. George W Bush also did not want to be a war president: he had goals about education, immigration, and social welfare. None of this was conducted; his record was crushed by the war in Iraq.” Americans, including Republicans, want this war to end, adding to the pressure on Trump to prove that sending 10,000 troops to the Middle East would not be the definition of a strategic quagmire. Inside the Iranian regime, where survival was the aim, there is a growing sense that the balance is tilting in their favor, so much so that Iran may indeed overplay the weak hand to which Younger referred. The Iranian media, for instance, is repeatedly picking up stories from Western thinkers and retired generals claiming Trump’s strategy has failed. The speaker of the parliament, and Trump’s preferred leader, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, is clear: US soldiers will only find they cannot fix what their generals have broken. Philip Gordon, a former foreign policy adviser to Kamala Harris when she was US vice-president, thinks “there is no chance Iran will agree to Trump’s demands, and the longer the US holds out for them, the more costs and pain everyone will endure. In the short term at least, limits on Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missiles, support for proxies, and threat to the strait are all more likely to be ensured through deterrence and prevention than with a comprehensive, formal agreement, and the sooner we recognize that, the better off we will be.” The former head of the Iran desk at Israel’s military intelligence, Danny Citrinowicz, also predicted that by the expiry of Trump’s latest 10-day deadline, Iran would not surrender, would not accept the 15-point framework, would not relinquish control of Hormuz, and would continue attacks on Israel and the Gulf states. After that, Trump will face a decisive choice: a further escalation of tensions, a retreat, or a push for a negotiated settlement like the one Iran offered in March. The UN is not going to sanction the use of force to reopen the strait, Europe will not participate, and the G7 will not endorse it…Trump wants to avoid a long, protracted war of attrition so the Pentagon is giving him high risk, high investment options with potential high impact, as if one big blow will change the trajectory of the war, or at least the perception of it – i.e. that Iran retains strategic leverage by having identified and developed control over the center of gravity of the war, Hormuz.

Trump said on March 27 that: "We would have always been there for them, but now, based on their actions, I guess we don't have to be, do we?" "Why would we be there for them if they're not there for us? They weren't there for us." He urged Iran to make a deal to end US and Israeli bombing or face more strikes on its country. According to the poll, 88% of respondents believe the US is using military coercion and maximum pressure against Iran during negotiations. Meanwhile, 94.2% believe the US-Israeli strikes against Iran have further destabilized the situation in the Middle East. “They now have the chance, which is Iran, to permanently abandon their nuclear ambitions and to join a new path forward," Trump said. "We'll see if they want to do it. If they don't, we're their worst nightmare. In the meantime, we'll just keep blowing them away." He further said that Iranians were talking with the US and described them as desperate to make a deal, characterizations Tehran has denied.

Trump suggested that a deal might not come together. "I don't know if we'll be able to do that," he said of the prospects for a deal. I don't know if we're willing to do that."[ccx]

On March 27, Trump said he was “very disappointed” with NATO’s response to the war with Iran. He said, “I’ve always said NATO is a paper tiger. And I always said we help NATO, but they’ll never help us.” Rubio said the US can achieve its war goals “without any ground troops”, and the end of the war is “weeks, not months away”.[ccxi]

Meanwhile, Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan said he will meet with Egyptian, Saudi, and Pakistani counterparts in Pakistan over the weekend to discuss the US-Israel war on Iran. Lebanon’s Ministry of Health says 1,142 people have been killed and 3,315 injured in Israeli attacks across the country since March 2.[ccxii]

The war has now widened with the first attack from Yemen. On March 28, Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis launched missiles at Israel, their first such attack since the Iran war began. The ballistic missile attack that was intercepted by Israel targeted Israeli military sites found in the south of the occupied West Bank.

The Houthis, whose involvement risks broadening and prolonging a war that has entered its fifth week, said their operations ?would continue until the "aggression" on all fronts ended. Israel said it had intercepted a missile from Yemen.

The Houthis had said on March 27 that they were prepared to act if what the group called an escalation against Iran and the "Axis of Resistance" continued in ?the war. The group has shown an ability to strike targets far beyond Yemen and disrupt shipping lanes around the Arabian Peninsula and the Red Sea, as they did in support of Hamas ?in Gaza after October 7, 2023.

If the Houthis open a new front in the conflict, one obvious target would be the Bab al-Mandab Strait off the coast ?of Yemen, a key shipping choke point that controls sea traffic towards the Suez Canal, after Iran effectively shut the critical Strait of Hormuz.[ccxiii]

Speaking on March 27 before the Houthi attack, Rubio said Washington was "on or ahead ?of schedule" and expects to conclude military operations in "weeks, not months”. He also told Group of Seven counterparts in France that European and Asian countries that receive help from trade through the Strait of Hormuz should contribute to efforts to secure free passage.[ccxiv]

The war has driven a wedge between the U.S. and its traditional allies, who have stayed on the sidelines. President Donald Trump said this lack of support had implications for NATO, the West's most important alliance. On March 27, Trump said, "We would have always been there for them, but now, based on their actions, I guess we don't have to be, do we?"  "Why ?would we be there for them if they're not there for us? They weren't there for us."

The charter underlying NATO, which has long been led by the US, says an attack ?on one member is an attack on all, requiring them to support each other.

Rubio said the US could achieve its aims without ground troops but acknowledged it was deploying some to the region "to give the president maximum optionality and ?maximum opportunity to ?adjust the contingencies, should they emerge". Washington has dispatched two contingents of thousands of Marines to the region, the first of which is due to arrive in the coming days on a huge amphibious assault ship. The Pentagon is also expected to deploy thousands of elite airborne soldiers. [ccxv]

Meanwhile, 1,142 people have been killed and 3,315 injured in Israeli attacks across Lebanon since March 2.[ccxvi]

Iranian President Pezeshkian warned on March 28 that if regional neighbors desired "development and security", they should not allow "enemies to run the war " from their territory. He said: "We have said many times that Iran doesn't carry out preemptive attacks, but we will retaliate strongly if our infrastructure or economic centers are targeted." "To the countries of the region: If you want development and security, don't let our enemies run the war from your lands."

His comments come amid US-Israeli strikes on Iran, as at least five people were killed and seven injured after a US-Israeli attack on a residential unit in Iran's northwestern city of Zanjan. Iran has retaliated against US bases in the region, Bahrain’s military has said it has so far intercepted and destroyed 174 Iranian missiles and 385 drones since the beginning of the US-Israeli war.[ccxvii] Around 10 US service members were injured in an Iranian attack on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia on March 28. At least two of the injured had shrapnel wounds considered non-life-threatening, and others were “impacted,” though the nature of what happened to them was not at once clear. A refueling plane was also damaged. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a group of Iran-backed armed factions, attacked "several" air bases and an airport in Jordan. The attack comes as Israel said it was attacking Tehran and "defending" against missiles fired from Iran on March 28. Iranian retaliation on an air base in Saudi Arabia wounded 12 US military personnel, two seriously, as drones and missiles continued to strike US bases around the Gulf. Additionally, Kuwait International Airport was targeted by multiple drone attacks that caused considerable damage to its radar system but resulted in no casualties. Beirut's southern suburbs were struck again on March 28. Israel is pushing its ground invasion from three different fronts; however, it is facing "fierce resistance" from Hezbollah fighters. At least five people were killed and seven injured after a US-Israeli attack on a residential unit in Iran's northwestern city of Zanjan. A university in Tehran was also struck. Israel’s military said on March 28 that it had detected incoming missiles from Iran, and Syrian state television reported explosions heard above the capital Damascus, from Israeli intercepts of the Iranian missiles. The UAE and Bahrain also reported missile attacks on March 28.[ccxviii]

Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said on X that Israel, in coordination with the US, had also hit two steel factories and a power plant. "Attack contradicts POTUS extended deadline for diplomacy. Iran will exact a heavy price for Israeli crimes," Araqchi said on March 27, using an acronym for the president of the US. He has warned that Tehran would exact a “heavy price” for what he described as Israeli attacks on key industrial and nuclear infrastructure, as hostilities between the two sides intensified. In a social media post, Araghchi said Israel had struck two of Iran’s largest steel factories, a power plant, and civilian nuclear facilities, adding that Israel claimed the operation was conducted in coordination with the US. Iran’s IRGC echoed the warning, urging workers at industrial sites with American ties or links to Israel to “leave their workplaces immediately,” signaling the possibility of further retaliatory strikes. US-Israeli strikes earlier in the day hit two Iranian nuclear facilities, the Khondab heavy water complex and a uranium processing plant in Ardakan, along with two major steel plants. Israeli forces confirmed the attacks, while Iranian authorities said there had been no radioactive release. Israel’s military said Iran responded by firing missiles, with one person killed in Tel Aviv and at least four others wounded. Meanwhile, the US has dispatched two contingents of thousands of Marines to the region, the first of which is due to arrive in the coming days aboard a large amphibious assault ship. The Pentagon is also expected to deploy thousands of elite airborne soldiers. The deployments have raised concerns that the war will turn into a prolonged ground battle. Stock markets tumbled sharply on March 27 while the Brent crude oil benchmark LCOc1 topped $112, having risen more than 50% since the war began.[ccxix]

A month after the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran, the war has spread across the Middle East, killing thousands of civilians, mostly in Iran and Lebanon, and causing the biggest disruption ever to energy supplies, hitting the global economy and fueling inflation fears. Iran's response, striking U.S. and Israeli targets in the region as well as civilian targets in Gulf ?Arab nations and shipping, has disrupted global trade in energy and other commodities, raising fears of rising prices and recession.

A global survey launched by CGTN shows that 89.6% of respondents believe the Iran conflict has left the US increasingly isolated in the international community. The survey was released across CGTN's English, Spanish, French, Arabic, and Russian platforms. Within 24 hours, 13,731 netizens took part in the poll and shared their views. According to Kolivand, Iran's deputy permanent representative to the International Maritime Organization (IMO), more than 1,700 people have been killed, 22,800 injured, around 3.5 million displaced, and over 81,000 civilian facilities damaged or destroyed in Iran since the start of US and Israeli attacks. In the poll, 92.4% of respondents agreed that the US-Israeli military operations have seriously violated international law and the basic norms of international relations.

The war has driven a wedge between the US and its traditional allies, who have stayed on the sidelines. President Donald Trump said this lack of support had implications for NATO, the West's most important alliance. The survey finds that 88.2% of respondents believe the Iran conflict has widened divisions between the US and its traditional allies.[ccxx]

The trajectory of the war is still as unclear as the aims of starting one in the first place. Its spillover effects are immense with rising oil costs indefinitely.

In the US,  Trump is politically vulnerable to economic downturns. Trump has appeared eager to wind down the unpopular war, emphasizing this week what he called productive negotiations aimed at a diplomatic solution - despite repeated assertions from Tehran that no such talks have begun. Many countries around the world are actively pushing for mediation, and 72.3% of respondents approve of these efforts, believing they serve the interests of the countries concerned and echo the shared aspirations of the international community.[ccxxi]

Earlier, Trump and his administration had sent mixed messages about US goals throughout the war, ?now entering its fourth week, leaving traditional US allies struggling to respond. Surprisingly, the US does not have a coherent war strategy, the consequences of which can now prove disastrous for it. Subsequently, the entire region can suffer even more. The economic fallout of the Iran war is now causing great concern all over the world. Even if the conflict does ?stop soon, there will be no rapid recovery from the upheaval caused by airstrikes and Iran's virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the conduit for 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas.

American voters appear increasingly concerned ?about signs that the war could expand. Energy price shocks are fueling, hitting consumers and businesses hard, which is a major political liability for Trump as he seeks to justify the war to the US public before the November elections, in which he could lose control of Congress.

The  US was now considering deploying thousands more troops to the Middle East, potentially even landing on Iran's shore or its Kharg Island oil export hub. However, the very thought was creating enormous tensions in the entire region.

The US should know too well the problem of entering a quagmire when a ground invasion of the Iranian mainland occurs. After all, it is easier to win battles than to shape long-term political outcomes. Then, overreliance on military solutions while ignoring political and economic tools is not right. Most importantly, the US is now a victim of mission creep and unclear goals. Initial aims have shifted over time, which makes success hard to define and measure. The Trump administration also had intelligence failures and flawed assumptions. It underestimated Iran’s capacity to withstand and then retaliate against American and Israeli strikes. Finally, the cost of the war versus the possible outcome. The US and Israel did not expect the prohibitive costs to be incurred now as the war rages on. The Trump administration has failed to learn these from failed wars in Afghanistan (2001-2021) and Iraq (2003-2011). The war is now proving to be exorbitantly costly to the US and Israel. Surprisingly, Iran has suffered enormously in the old war but continues striking Israel and the Gulf region. Notwithstanding Iran’s dismal condition, it has built a strong nationalism fervor, and the “rallying around the flag” phenomenon has taken hold of the nation. The Islamic Republic is still intact and has even built a strong narrative of resilience to American Israeli aggressions. Therefore, Iran will continue fighting on. Undoubtedly, Iran had planned to conduct a prolonged asymmetrical war with the US-Israel and had prepared for it for decades. Iran’s strategy now is to impose a prolonged economic shock to force Trump to back off. Iran's military command said that the world should prepare for oil prices of $200 a barrel.

The US-Israel war of choice must end now for the sake of the region and even beyond. The way Trump is conducting the war’s diplomacy is very inappropriate, to say the least. He has no knowledge or knowledge of the sophistication needed in the realm of diplomacy. Moreover, he is not asking professionals in the State Department to conduct it and instead depends on family and friends. This is leading to poor decision-making in the White House. At the end of the first month, President Trump is searching for a decent withdrawal plan and a face-saving for his beleaguered administration. The Trump administration underestimated the resolve of the Iranians to defend their country from US and Israeli aggression. Plus, the reliance on air strikes to defeat Iran was a mistake. The law of diminishing returns suggests there is a limit to the number of strikes that can be made on the enemy. After all, how many campaigns can one conduct without a political backlash? The US and Israel cannot go on forever striking Iran without bearing the cost of the political backlash to their aggressions.

The Trump administration had decided that a ground invasion of the Iranian mainland by US and Israeli troops is not a practical choice, as it is considered too dangerous for obvious reasons. The war could turn into a prolonged ground battle. However, something less will happen very soon. The Trump administration had also discussed options to send ?ground forces to Iran's ?Kharg Island, the hub for 90% of Iran's oil exports. Meanwhile, the Pentagon is developing options for a final blow in Iran that could include a massive bombing campaign and the use of ground forces. There can be an occupation of Kharg Island by American marine forces and Israeli troops. Another possibility is invading Larak, an island that helps Iran control the Strait of Hormuz, as it has radars that check movements in the strait. Yes, another possibility is 9ccupying the strategic island of Abu Musa and two smaller islands which lie near the western entrance to the strait. These islands are controlled by Iran but also claimed by the UAE. Finally, the US can block pr seize ships that are exporting Iranian oil on the eastern side of the Hormuz Strait. Most probably, military action to achieve all or some of the aims is going to happen. The US is deploying a Marine Expeditionary Unit to the Middle East, a rapid response unit typically comprised of around 2,500 Marines and sailors.

Iran knows it and is preparing for military actions. It also fears that President Trump is just stalling for this eventuality and is not serious about negotiations with them.

All wars are politics by other means, as Clausewitz declared a long time ago, and this war is no exception. The problem for the US is that the Trump administration does not have a war strategy. Israel manipulated it to fight its war with Iran. There was no immediate and imminent threat to the US before the war began a month ago. Trump must know that any use of US ground troops,  even for a limited mission, would pose significant political risks for him, given low ?American public ?support for the Iran campaign and Trump's own pre-election promises to avoid entangling the ?US in new Middle East conflicts. Thus, when the Trump administration commits the folly of sending ground troops to the Persian Gulf islands, it will have to pay a prohibitive cost for the blunder.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, on March 28, held a telephone conversation with Iranian President Pezeshkian, as Islamabad has stepped up its diplomatic efforts to de-escalate rising tensions in the Middle East and position itself as a key mediator. Sharif briefed the Iranian president on Pakistan’s ongoing diplomatic outreach, which includes engagements with the United States as well as “brotherly” Gulf and Islamic countries. The efforts, he said, are aimed at creating a conducive environment for dialogue and eventual peace talks. He also highlighted what Islamabad sees as growing international endorsement of its peace initiative, expressing hope that collective efforts could help chart a practical path toward ending the conflict. President Pezeshkian, while appreciating Pakistan’s diplomatic role, shared Tehran’s perspective on the hostilities and underscored the importance of trust-building as a prerequisite for meaningful negotiations. He praised Islamabad’s efforts and its supportive stance in pursuit of regional peace. The prime minister, in response, reaffirmed Pakistan’s commitment to playing a constructive role in promoting stability and easing dialogue.[ccxxii]

The back-to-back diplomatic engagements highlight Pakistan’s emerging role at the center of efforts aimed at reducing tensions in the Middle East, with Islamabad seeking to leverage its ties with multiple stakeholders to facilitate dialogue between rival sides.[ccxxiii]

Pakistan ?will host Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt for talks from March 29 ?on the Iran war as Islamabad positions itself as a potential venue for U.S.-Iran negotiations on the month-old conflict. Saudi Foreign Minister Al Saud, Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan, and Egyptian Foreign Minister Abdelatty are expected to hold in-depth discussions with Pakistani leadership on a range of issues, including efforts to de-escalate regional tensions. Turkish Foreign Minister ?Hakan Fidan said the meeting would look to set up a mechanism aimed at ?de-escalation.

“We would discuss where the negotiations in this war are heading and how ?these four countries assess the situation and what can be done," he said on March 27.

The four nations have been involved in trying to mediate between Washington and ?Tehran in the war launched by the U.S. and Israel on February 28, ?and all are acutely vulnerable to threats to energy supplies and trade routes. Pakistan has conveyed to ?Tehran ?a U.S. proposal for ending the war and offered to host talks, with Iranian officials showing that any negotiations could take place in Pakistan or Turkey. President Donald Trump has said talks with Iran were going "very well," but Tehran denies talking with ?Washington. Iran has been reviewing ?the 15-point U.S. ?proposal, although one official has dismissed it as "one-sided and unfair". Its demands range from dismantling Iran's nuclear program to curbing ?its missile development and effectively handing over control of the ?Strait of ?Hormuz. Turkey's Fidan said on March 28 that the world's new "polycentric system" requires a solution to guarding vital energy and trade routes. ?He ?said Turkey's high-level dialogue aims to swiftly chart ?out "actionable steps" to end the war before there is further destruction to the region and global economy.[ccxxiv]

But there is yet a slight glimmer of hope as Pakistan is acting as an intermediary in the proposed negotiations between Iran and the US for ending the war. Trump has appeared anxious to wind down the unpopular war, and emphasized what he has described as productive negotiations aimed at a diplomatic ?solution, despite repeated assertions from Tehran that no such talks have begun. The back-channel efforts by Pakistan might just work, as the country has excellent relations with the US and Gulf allies, as well as good relations with neighboring Iran. Pakistan is on a tight rope and is balancing its position between the adversaries. The proposed meeting is scheduled to take place in Islamabad in a day or two. China has expressed its hope of ending the war, and so have many other countries. Just maybe the Islamabad parleys can work out now. There are indications that they might do it. A breakthrough is desperately needed now. But it will not happen as the trust deficit between Iran and the US is now seemingly insurmountable. On March 28, Iranian President Pezeshkian ?told Pakistan's Prime Minister Sharif that trust is needed to ?ease talks and ?mediation on the conflict in ?the Middle East. Pezeshkian had praised Pakistan's diplomatic ?efforts and said that ?the two leaders had discussed ?hostilities ?in the region and efforts to end the conflict during ?a call ?that ?lasted over an hour. Sharif ?briefed Pezeshkian on ?Pakistan's ?diplomatic contacts with the US and ?Gulf ?states.[ccxxv]

The chances of a breakthrough are very bleak. But back channels must be kept for the future. Countries do not have permanent enemies, as they have only national interests to protect. In the Second World War, Germany and Japan were mortal enemies of the US, but now they are close friends. Circumstances can change, and even the US can become friends with Iran, as before the Islamic Republic was founded. It is possible that a peace deal between the US and Iran can happen. However, a peace deal between Israel and Iran is not possible. Israel is committing aggression in the region and is being duly opposed by Iran. The enmity between Israel and Iran is very deep. Even if there is a peace deal with the US, Israel will remain bent on the destruction of Iran. Eventually, the US can obviously stop it. Regional politics are changing. A strategic alliance of Russia-China-Iran has appeared. The nature of international politics dictates that China and Russia will help Iran against the US-Israel alliance. Meanwhile, Iran will do whatever it takes to survive. Iran will be victorious if it can survive the joint US-Israeli aggressions of the war. International politics is becoming both intense and complicated now. If Iran falls, both China and Russia lose a valuable strategic partner. Therefore, both will continue to back Iran only because it is an adversary of the US, which happens to be their adversary as well. In other words, China and Russia will not let Iran collapse altogether. Russia is already helping Iran with intelligence sharing and upgrading drone technology. China is also supplying some weapons. If the war prolongs any further, both will ramp up their support to Iran, making sure it survives the US-Israeli strikes.

Meanwhile, the global public opinion is now definitely all over the world against war. Except for Israel and a minority of Republican supporters inside the US, the people demand an end to the war. Therefore, suffice it to state now that the war must end soon, by whatever means possible, as it is getting disastrous. Most importantly, the war is continuing with no de-escalation in sight. This is a dangerous moment as the needed off-ramp is not available. The war will further engulf the region in destabilization and turmoil. The global economy will suffer further because of the oil and gas price shocks and disruptions of commerce. War shall lead to unintended consequences. Surely, the entire world will suffer as a result. We wish it were otherwise.

Dr. Sohail Mahmood is a political analyst in Chapel Hill, NC.

[i] Iran’s President Pezeshkian warns of regional instability amid US threats, Al Jazeera Staff and News Agencies. 27 Jan 202627 Jan 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/27/iran-president-tells-saudi-crown-prince-that-us-threats-cause-instability

[ii] Ibid

[iii]Iran issues air warning over Hormuz drills as US steps up military presence,

Reuters/Anadolu Agency/AFP, January 28, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2589482/iran-issues-air-warning-over-hormuz-drills-as-us-steps-up-military-presence

[iv]  Elwely Elwelly, “Iranian students protest for third day as US pressure mounts,” Reuters, February 23, 2026, - https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-students-protest-third-day-us-pressure-mounts-2026-02-23/

[v]  Ibid

[vi] https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/pentagon-flags-risks-of-a-major-operation-against-iran-1c7e9939?mod=hp_lead_pos5

[vii] Ibid

[viii] Trump hits out at reports that top general flagged risks of attacking Iran, Al Jazeera Staff, February 24, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/24/trump-hits-out-at-reports-that-top-general-flagged-risks-of-attacking-iran

[ix] Trump hits out at reports that top general flagged risks of attacking Iran, Al Jazeera Staff, February 24, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/24/trump-hits-out-at-reports-that-top-general-flagged-risks-of-attacking-iran

[x] Julian E. BarnesDavid E. Sanger, Tyler Pager, and Eric Schmitt in their article, “Trump Considers Targeted Strike Against Iran, Followed by Larger Attack, NYT, February 22, 2026 https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/22/us/politics/trump-iran-strike-attack.html

[xi] https://www.iranintl.com/en/liveblog/202602154712#202602247116

[xii] Gavin Finch, Parisa Hafezi and John Irish, “Exclusive: Iran nears deal to buy supersonic anti-ship missiles from China”, Reuters, February 24, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/iran-nears-deal-buy-supersonic-anti-ship-missiles-china-2026-02-24/

[xiii] Ibid

[xiv] https://www.iranintl.com/en/liveblog/202602154712#202602241744

[xv] Aaron Blake, “Trump said Iran’s nuclear program was ‘obliterated.’ So why is he looking to strike again?” CNN, February 24, 2026

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/02/24/politics/nuclear-program-iran-trump-strike

[xvi] Ibid

[xvii] Kevin Liptak, Kylie Atwood, Zachary Cohen, Jennifer Hansler, in their excellent article “Trump confronts his 3 main options on Iran — from diplomacy to trying to topple a regime’, https://edition.cnn.com/2026/02/24/politics/iran-trump-military-options-nuclear

[xviii] Hugo Lowell, “Trump's Iran airstrikes decision to be guided by Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff’s advice,” The Guardian, February 24, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/feb/23/trump-iran-airstrikes-nuclear-deal

[xix] “Negotiations led by special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will shape Trump’s calculus,” The Guardian, February 24, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/feb/23/trump-steve-witkoff-jared-kushner-iran-attack

[xx] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/feb/24/oil-prices-rise-us-iran-talks

[xxi] Jillian Kestler-D'Amours and Ali Harb, “i US-Iran nuclear talks live: ‘Practical’ proposals discussed, Tehran says”, Al Jazeera, February 26, 2026

[xxii] Ibid

[xxiii] The Guardian, February 26, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/feb/26/us-iran-nuclear-talks-middle-east-latest-news-updates

[xxiv] The Guardian, February 26, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/feb/26/us-iran-nuclear-talks-middle-east-latest-news-updates

[xxv] Hugo Bachega, “US and Iran hold talks seen as crucial to prevent conflict,” BBC, February 26, 2026, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg1vd95nl9o

[xxvi] Rubio says Iran not negotiating on missiles is a 'big problem. ‘February 26, 20264

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2594701/rubio-says-iran-not-negotiating-on-missiles-a-big-problem

[xxvii] Ibid

[xxviii] Maziar Motamedi, “US-Iran talks conclude with claims of progress but few details,” Al Jazeera, February 26, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/26/us-iran-talks-conclude-claims-progress-few-details

[xxix] Ibid

[xxx] Ibid

[xxxi] Bernd Debusmann Jr, Ana Fagus, too early to tell scope of Iran strikes, Trump tells Congress, BBC, March 4, 2026, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2gprk53pno

[xxxii] missiles launched from Iran towards Türkiye destroyed: Ankara, AFP/REUTERS, March 04, 2026, and Iran live news: Iran death toll at 1,145; Türkiye says missile destroyed, Tim Hume and Stephen Quillen, Al Jazeera, March 4, 2026,

[xxxiii] Live Updates: At Least 3 Ships Come Under Attack Near Key Oil Passage, New York Times, March 11, 2026,

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/03/11/world/iran-war-news-trump-oil-israel and Edited By  PATRICK QUINN, BRIAN P. D. HANNON, FRANK GRIFFITHS, Michael Warren, Drew Callister,  and Peter Osi. “About 140 US troops wounded in Iran war, 8 severely, Pentagon says”, AP News, March 11, 2026, https://apnews.com/live/iran-war-israel-trump--03-10-2026.

[xxxiv] Gavin Butler and Toby Mann, “Strait of Hormuz: What happens if Iran shuts the global oil corridor?” BBC News, March 12, 2026, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78n6p09pzno

[xxxv] Gavin Butler and Toby Mann, “Strait of Hormuz: What happens if Iran shuts the global oil corridor?” BBC News, March 12, 2026, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78n6p09pzno

[xxxvi] Live Updates: At Least 3 Ships Come Under Attack Near Key Oil Passage, New York Times, March 11, 2026,

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/03/11/world/iran-war-news-trump-oil-israel and Edited By  PATRICK QUINN, BRIAN P. D. HANNON, FRANK GRIFFITHS, Michael Warren, Drew Callister,  and Peter Osi. “About 140 US troops wounded in Iran war, 8 severely, Pentagon says”, AP News, March 11, 2026, https://apnews.com/live/iran-war-israel-trump--03-10-2026.

[xxxvii] Aaron Blake, “The rationale for striking Iran was already a mess. Trump just made it worse,” CNN, March 4, 2026, argues that: https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/03/politics/explanation-trump-preemptive-iran-strikes

[xxxviii]  Tim Hume and Stephen Quillen,” Iran live news: Iran death toll at 1,145; Türkiye says missile destroyed”, Al Jazeera, March 4, 2026,

[xxxix] Hundreds of drones target Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE amid Iran war,  AFP, AP, Reuters,  and Al Jazeera, March 4, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/4/hundreds-of-drones-target-kuwait-iraq-saudi-arabia-uae-amid-iran-war

[xl] The rationale for striking Iran was already a mess. Trump just made it worse,” published in CNN on March 4, 2026, argues that: [xl]https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/03/politics/explanation-trump-preemptive-iran-strikes

[xli] U.S. casualties. Iran won't negotiate with US, can 'continue the war': senior adviser to Khamenei, AFP, March 04, 20268 min read,

[xlii] Ibid

[xliii] Ibid

[xliv] Stephen N R, “Qatar says Iran strikes across Gulf have crossed ‘all red lines. Gulf News, March 4, 2026, https://gulfnews.com/world/gulf/qatar/qatar-warns-iran-strikes-across-gulf-have-crossed-all-red-lines-1.500463070

[xlv] Ibid

[xlvi] Tom Hals, “Are the US attacks on Iran legal?” Reuters, March 4, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/are-us-attacks-iran-legal-2026-03-04/

[xlvii] Ibid

[xlviii] Ibid

[xlix] Ibid

[l] Maayan Lubell and Rami Ayyub, “Netanyahu's war alliance with Trump faces test as Iran crisis widens”, Reuters, March 4, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahus-war-alliance-with-trump-faces-test-iran-crisis-widens-2026-03-04/

[li] Maayan Lubell and Rami Ayyub, “Netanyahu's war alliance with Trump faces test as Iran crisis widens”, Reuters, March 4, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahus-war-alliance-with-trump-faces-test-iran-crisis-widens-2026-03-04/

[li]Maayan Lubell and Rami Ayyub, “Netanyahu's war alliance with Trump faces test as Iran crisis widens”, Reuters, March 4, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahus-war-alliance-with-trump-faces-test-iran-crisis-widens-2026-03-04/

[lii] Benoit Faulcon, Margherita Stancati,  and Dov Lieber, “Israel Is Blowing Up Iran’s Police State to Clear the Way for a Revolt”, Wall Street Journal, March 4, 2026, https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-is-blowing-up-irans-police-state-to-clear-the-way-for-a-revolt-1015b37e?mod=WTRN_pos1

[liii] Iran hits CIA site in Riyadh as US looks to arm Kurdish forces against Tehran, Reuters, March 04, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2595734/iran-hits-cia-site-in-riyadh-as-us-seeks-to-arm-kurdish-forces-against-tehran

[liv] Fraud Bezhan, “A New Front in Iran War? US Considers Arming Iranian Kurdish Opposition Groups”, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, March 4, 2026, https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-us-israel-kurds-iraq/33695118.html and

Alayna Treene, Zachary Cohen, Clarissa Ward, and Vasco Octavio, “CIA working to arm Kurdish forces to spark uprising in Iran, sources say,, CNN, March 4, 2026, https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/03/politics/cia-arming-kurds-iran

[lv] Ibid

[lvi], Alex Abraham, “Europe wary as Iran war deepens, divisions emerge over US-Israel strikes “, Gulf News, March 4, 2026, https://gulfnews.com/world/europe/europe-wary-as-iran-war-deepens-divisions-emerge-over-us-israel-strikes-1.500463129

[lvii] Ibid

[lviii] Trump claims massive US strikes destroy military targets on Iran’s Kharg Island, Express Tribune, March 14, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2597521/trump-claims-us-obliterated-irans-kharg-island-in-most-powerful-airstrikes-in-mideast-history and Iran threatens US-linked oil targets after Trump says Kharg bombed, AFP, March 14, 2026, https://www.arabnews.pk/node/2636337/middle-east

[lix] Bo Erickson, Parisa Hafezi, Maya Gebeily, and Alexander Cornwell, “Trump threatens to hit Iran's Kharg Island oil network if shipping lanes remain blocked”, Reuters, March 14, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-threatens-strike-irans-kharg-island-oil-network-if-shipping-lanes-remain-2026-03-14/

[lx] Ibid

[lxi] Idrees Ali and Phil Stewart, “Iran's new supreme leader wounded, likely disfigured, Hegseth says”, Reuters, March 13, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/irans-new-supreme-leader-wounded-likely-disfigured-hegseth-says-2026-03-13/

[lxii] Ibid

[lxiii] Ibid

[lxiv] Parisa Hafezi, “Iran vows to keep Strait of Hormuz closed in new leader's first statement,” Reuters,

March 12, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-iran-signal-no-quick-end-war-tankers-burn-iraqi-waters-2026-03-12/

[lxv] Biggest global oil supply disruptions in history, Reuters, March 13, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2597464/biggest-global-oil-supply-disruptions-in-history

[lxvi] Ibid

[lxvii] Jessie Yeung and Issy Ronald, “What we know on the 13th day of the US and Israel’s war with Iran”, CNN, March 12, 2026, https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/12/middleeast/us-israel-iran-middle-east-war-what-we-know-intl-hnk

[lxviii] Ibid

[lxix]  Parisa Hafezi, Maya Gebeily and Alexander Cornwell, “Trump says US will hit Iran 'very hard' after easing sanctions on Russian oil”, Reuters, March 13, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/both-sides-dig-iran-war-approaches-two-week-mark-2026-03-13/

[lxx] Ibid

[lxxi] Idrees Ali, “US carrying out rescue effort after military plane crash in Iraq,” Reuters, March 13, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-carrying-out-rescue-effort-after-losing-aircraft-iraq-us-military-says-2026-03-12/

[lxxii]  Live Updates:  All 6 US crewmembers killed in Iraq plane crash, CNN, March 13, 2026, https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-13-26

[lxxiii] https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-administration-estimates-iran-war-cost-over-11-billion-six-days-source-2026-03-11/ and Jessie Yeung and Issy Ronald, “What we know on the 13th day of the US and Israel’s war with Iran”, CNN, March 12, 2026, https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/12/middleeast/us-israel-iran-middle-east-war-what-we-know-intl-hnk

[lxxiv] Towhid Asadi, “Iran refuses negotiations amid US-Israel air attacks,” Aljazeera, March 12, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/12/iran-war-live-oil-tankers-hit-in-iraq-tehran-sets-3-conditions-for-peace?update=4392595

[lxxv] Parisa Hafezi and Bo Erickson, “Oil tankers burn near Iraq as Iranian strikes defy Trump's claim to have won the war”. Reuters, March 12, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-iran-signal-no-quick-end-war-tankers-burn-iraqi-waters-2026-03-12/

[lxxvi] Ibid

[lxxvii] Ibid

[lxxviii] Ibid

[lxxix] Ibid

[lxxx] Ibid

[lxxxi] William Roberts, in his thought-provoking article “US presidency: attack on Iran set to test War Powers Resolution in confrontation with Congress,” published by the International Bar Association on March 16, had argued that: https://www.ibanet.org/US-presidency-attack-on-Iran-set-to-test-War-Powers-Resolution-in-confrontation-with-Congress

[lxxxii] Ibid

[lxxxiii] Ibid

[lxxxiv] Jessie Yeung and Issy Ronald, “What we know on the 13th day of the US and Israel’s war with Iran”, CNN, March 12, 2026, https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/12/middleeast/us-israel-iran-middle-east-war-what-we-know-intl-hnk

[lxxxv] Ibid

[lxxxvi] Iran tanker attacks ignite Gulf oil fears, challenge Trump’s claim war is won, Reuters, March 12, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2597174/iran-linked-boat-attacks-set-tankers-ablaze-in-iraqi-waters-escalating-gulf-shipping-crisis

[lxxxvii] Ibid

[lxxxviii] U.N. Security Council Condemns Iran’s Retaliatory Strikes in the Middle East, New York Times, March 12, 2026, https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/11/world/middleeast/un-security-council-condemns-iran-strikes.html

[lxxxix] Jared Malsin, Summer Said,  and Shelby Holliday, “Escalating Hormuz Crisis Raises Specter of Prolonged Closure, Wall Street Journal, March 12, 2026, https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/escalating-hormuz-crisis-raises-specter-of-prolonged-closure-7678477e?mod=WSJ_home_mediumtopper_pos_1

[xc] Iran War Live Updates: Oil Tops $100 a Barrel as Attacks Spread Across Middle East, New York Times, March 12, 2026, https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/03/12/world/iran-war-news-trump-oil-israel and Oil Futures Top $100 a Barrel as Iran Threatens Red Sea Route and Continues Strikes, Wall Street Journal, March 12, 2026, https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/us-israel-iran-war-2026, and Parisa Hafezi and Bo Erickson, “Oil tankers burn near Iraq as Iranian strikes defy Trump's claim to have won the war”, Reuters, March 12, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-iran-signal-no-quick-end-war-tankers-burn-iraqi-waters-2026-03-12/

[xci] Iran War Live Updates: Oil Tops $100 a Barrel as Attacks Spread Across Middle East, New York Times, March 12, 2026, https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/03/12/world/iran-war-news-trump-oil-israel and Oil Futures Top $100 a Barrel as Iran Threatens Red Sea Route and Continues Strikes, WSJ, March 12, 2026, https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/us-israel-iran-war-2026

[xci] Iran tanker attacks ignite Gulf oil fears, challenge Trump’s claim war is won, Reuters, March 12, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2597174/iran-linked-boat-attacks-set-tankers-ablaze-in-iraqi-waters-escalating-gulf-shipping-crisis

[xcii] PATRICK QUINN, BRIAN P. D. HANNON, FRANK GRIFFITHS, LUENA RODRIGUEZ-FEO VILEIRA, MICHAEL WARREN, DREW CALLISTER, NELL CLARK, and PETER ORSI. “About 140 US troops wounded in Iran war, 8 severely, Pentagon says”, AP News, March 11, 2026, https://apnews.com/live/iran-war-israel-trump--03-10-2026 and Parisa Hafezi and Alexander Cornwell, “ Iran tells world 'get ready for $200 a barrel', Reuters, March 11, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/combatants-mideast-war-trade-more-air-strikes-iran-clamps-down-dissent-2026-03-11/

[xciii] Italy will not join US-Israeli attacks on Iran, says PM Meloni, Express Tribune, March 11, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2597040/italy-wont-join-us-israeli-attacks-on-iran-says-pm-meloni

[xciv] Italy will not join US-Israeli attacks on Iran, says PM Meloni, Express Tribune, March 11, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2597040/italy-wont-join-us-israeli-attacks-on-iran-says-pm-meloni

[xcv] Drone strikes near Dubai airport deepen Gulf aviation chaos, Reuters, March 11, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2597041/drone-strikes-near-dubai-airport-deepen-gulf-aviation-chaos

[xcvi] We make a lot of money’: Trump spins spiking oil prices as benefit for US, Shari Popat, The Guardian, March 12, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/mar/12/iran-war-live-updates-oil-trump-middle-east-crisis-israel-lebanon-iraq-latest-news?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-69b2cc908f08496505517e19#block-69b2cc908f08496505517e19

[xcvii] https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/mar/12/iran-war-live-updates-oil-trump-middle-east-crisis-israel-lebanon-iraq-latest-news?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-69b2cc908f08496505517e19#block-69b2cc908f08496505517e19

[xcviii] Christian Edwards, “Iran war, energy shock one of the 'worst crises in decades,' says John Kerry, CNN, March 12, 2026, https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-12-26?post-id=cmmnmdnem00003b6vhk4uj163

[xcix] US intelligence says Iran leadership still firmly in control despite weeks of strikes,” Reuters, March 12, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2597195/us-intelligence-says-iran-leadership-still-firmly-in-control-despite-weeks-of-strikes

[c] Yaroslav Trofimov, “Ending the Iran War Quickly Carries Big Risks for the U.S. and Allies,” Wall Street Journal, March 11, 2026, had argued that: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/ending-iran-war-quickly-carries-big-risks-for-the-u-s-and-allies-60c003de?mod=WSJ_home_mediumtopper_pos_2.

[ci] Patrick Wintour, “Oman’s foreign minister, and the mediator in the US-Iran nuclear talks, has claimed the US will not achieve as much through war as it could have achieved in the peace talks”, Middle East Crisis Live, The Guardian, March 12, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/mar/12/iran-war-live-updates-oil-trump-middle-east-crisis-israel-lebanon-iraq-latest-news

[cii] How many countries have pushed back on Trump’s Hormuz ship demand?” ET, March 16, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2597896/how-many-countries-have-pushed-back-on-trumps-hormuz-ship-demand

[ciii] Ibid

[civ] Andrew Gray and Lili Bayer, “EU to discuss bolstering Mideast naval mission amid Iran war turmoil”, Reuters,   March 16, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eu-discuss-bolstering-mideast-naval-mission-amid-iran-war-turmoil-2026-03-15/ and “Trump warns Nato faces  ‘very bad’  future if allies do not help secure Strait of Hormuz”, BBC News, March 16, 2026, https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cx2lr40g17kt and “How many countries have pushed back on Trump’s Hormuz ship demand?”, ET, March 16, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2597896/how-many-countries-have-pushed-back-on-trumps-hormuz-ship-demand.

[cv] Ibid

[cvi] China calls for an immediate cease to military operations, after Trump's comments, BBC News, March 16, 2026, https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cx2lr40g17kt

[cvii] Michael D. Shear,  ‘This Is Not Our War’: Europe and U.K. Push Back Against Trump’s Demands,” The New York Times, March 16, 2026, https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/16/world/europe/europe-iran-war-trump-hormuz-warships.html

[cviii] Bo Erickson, Alexander Cornwell , and Parisa Hafezi, Trump upset as US partners reject call for Hormuz warship escorts,  

Reuters, March 17, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-demands-others-help-secure-strait-hormuz-japan-australia-say-no-plans-send-2026-03-16/

[cix] Ibid

[cx] Ibid

[cxi] Ibid

[cxii] Jonathan Landay, Phil Stewart and Erin Banco, “Trump was warned of likely Iranian retaliation on Gulf allies, sources say”,  Reuters, March 17, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-was-warned-likely-iranian-retaliation-gulf-allies-sources-say-2026-03-17/

[cxiii] Alexander Cornwell and Jonathan Landay, “Iran renews attacks on US Gulf allies, Trump says that was not expected”,  Reuters, March 17, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-criticises-allies-over-rejection-hormuz-request-iran-israel-trade-2026-03-17/

[cxiv] Anthony Zurcher, in his informative article “Surge in US petrol prices deepens political peril for Trump over Iran,” published in the BBC News, March 17, 2026, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c70k29914q4o

[cxv] Jonathan Landay, Phil Stewart and Erin Banco, “Trump was warned of likely Iranian retaliation on Gulf allies, sources say”,  Reuters, March 17, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-was-warned-likely-iranian-retaliation-gulf-allies-sources-say-2026-03-17/

[cxvi] Ibid

[cxvii] US senators back ending funding for war on Iran” Live Updates Aljazeera, March 14, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/13/iran-war-live-trump-says-war-going-well-as-gulf-under-wave-of-attacks

[cxviii] William Roberts, in his thought-provoking article “US presidency: attack on Iran set to test War Powers Resolution in confrontation with Congress,” published by the International Bar Association on March 16, had argued that: https://www.ibanet.org/US-presidency-attack-on-Iran-set-to-test-War-Powers-Resolution-in-confrontation-with-Congress.

[cxix] Iranian oil production and exports continue without interruption, official says, Reuters, March 17, 2026, https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cx2lr40g17kthttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iranian-oil-production-exports-continue-without-interruption-official-says-2026-03-17/

[cxx] Rachel Clun, “Oil price hovers around $103 on Tuesday, dipping after early trading spike”, BBC News, March 17, 2026,

[cxxi] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg5yp7v0ppo

[cxxii] Why Gulf fury is aimed at Tehran, not Washington, Reuters, March 17, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2598058/why-gulf-fury-is-aimed-at-tehran-not-washington

[cxxiii] Ibid

[cxxiv] Top US counterterrorism official resigns over Iran war, blames 'Israel, its powerful American lobby' for conflict, Reuters/AFP, March 17, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2598097/top-us-counterterrorism-official-resigns-over-iran-war-blames-israel-its-powerful-american-lobby

[cxxv] Ibid

[cxxvi] Parisa Hafezi, Alexander Cornwell and Enas Alashray, “Iran strikes Tel Aviv with cluster warheads in retaliation for killing of security chief, Reuters, March 17, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-criticises-allies-over-rejection-hormuz-request-iran-

[cxxvii] U.S. Drops 5,000-Pound Bombs on Iranian Missile Sites Near Strait of Hormuz, Wall Street Journal, March 18, 2026, https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-us-israel-war-news-2026

[cxxviii] U.S. Drops 5,000-Pound Bombs on Iranian Missile Sites Near Strait of Hormuz, Wall Street Journal, March 18, 2026, https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-us-israel-war-news-2026

[cxxix] Parisa Hafezi, Alexander Cornwell and Enas Alashray, “Iran strikes Tel Aviv with cluster warheads in retaliation for killing of security chief, Reuters, March 17, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-criticises-allies-over-rejection-hormuz-request-iran-israel-trade-2026-03-17/

[cxxx] Ibid

[cxxxi] Ibid

[cxxxii] Ibid

[cxxxiii] Patrick Wintour, in his brilliant article “How ignorance, misunderstanding and obfuscation ended Iran nuclear talks,” The Guardian, March 18, 2026, said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/18/ignorance-misunderstanding-obfuscation-iran-nuclear-talks-trump

[cxxxiv] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-araqchi-aims-reprise-role-nuclear-dealmaker-2026-02-26/

[cxxxv] Iran strikes Gulf energy hubs, damaging world’s largest LNG plant and widening regional war, Reuters, March 19, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2598399/trump-warns-of-massive-retaliation-after-israel-strike-on-iran-gas-field-escalates-energy-war.

[cxxxvi] Ibid

[cxxxvii] Elaine Kurtenbach, David McHugh, “Gas tops $4 a gallon in Philly as prices soar after Iran attacks Gulf facilities”,  The Associated Press, and Neil Fischer,  NBC, March 19, 2026, https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/gas-tops-4-a-gallon-in-philly-as-prices-soar-after-iran-attacks-gulf-facilities/4371082/

[cxxxviii] Rachel Clun, “Gas price soars 25% after strikes on Qatar hub”, BBC News, March 19, 2026, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78x83lpgngo.

[cxxxix] Elaine Kurtenbach, David McHugh, “Gas tops $4 a gallon in Philly as prices soar after Iran attacks Gulf facilities”,  The Associated Press, and Neil Fischer • NBC, March 19, 2026, https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/gas-tops-4-a-gallon-in-philly-as-prices-soar-after-iran-attacks-gulf-facilities/4371082/

[cxl] Pentagon Sends More Troops to Middle East, https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-us-israel-war-updates-2026

[cxli] Strait of Hormuz - why is it significant? BBC News, March 23, 2026, https://www.bbc.com/news/live/ce35wke27ynt

[cxlii] Ibid

[cxliii] Ibid

[cxliv] Sudev Kiyada and Sumanta Sen, Maps and charts of the Iran War, March 20, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/graphics/IRAN-CRISIS/MAPS/znpnmelervl/#attacks-on-major-oil-gas-sites-in-the-middle-east

[cxlv] Ibid

[cxlvi] Ibid

[cxlvii] US sending Marines and amphibious assault ship to Middle East, officials say, Alexander Cornwell, Jana Choukeir and Trevor Hunnicutt, March 20, 20262, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-tells-israel-not-repeat-strikes-iranian-energy-crisis-deepens-2026-03-19/

[cxlviii]   BRIAN P. D. Hannon, Sylvia Hui, Luena Rodriguez-Feo Vileira, and MICHAEL WARREN, “Live updates: US deploys thousands more troops to the war as Iran threatens world tourism”, AP,  March 20, 2026, https://apnews.com/live/iran-war-israel-trump-03-20-2026

[cxlix] Ibid

[cl]  John Hudson, Warren P. Strobel, and Steve Hendrix, in their article “U.S.-Israeli rift widens over potential endgame in Iran” [published in the Washington Post on March 20, said that:

The Washington Pos, March 20, 2026, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/03/20/us-israel-iran-goals-trump-netanyahu/

12. Aayan Lubell, Alexander Cornwell, and Idrees Ali, “Trump threatens Iran with power plant strikes over Hormuz oil blockade, (Reuters, March 22, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-threatens-iran-with-power-plant-strikes-over-hormuz-blockade-2026-03-22/

[clii]  Maayan Lubell, Alexander Cornwell and Idrees Ali, “Trump threatens Iran with power plant strikes over Hormuz oil blockade, (Reuters, March 22, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-threatens-iran-with-power-plant-strikes-over-hormuz-blockade-2026-03-22/

[cliii]  Maayan Lubell, Alexander Cornwell , and Idrees Ali, “Trump threatens Iran with power plant strikes over Hormuz oil blockade, (Reuters, March 22, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-threatens-iran-with-power-plant-strikes-over-hormuz-blockade-2026-03-22/

[cliv] Matt Spetalnick and Nandita Bose,” Three weeks in, Iran war escalates beyond Trump's control,” Reuters, March 22, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/three-weeks-iran-war-escalates-beyond-trumps-control-2026-03-21/

[clv] Matt Spetalnick and Nandita Bose, three weeks in, Iran war escalates beyond Trump's control, Reuters, March 22, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/three-weeks-iran-war-escalates-beyond-trumps-control-2026-03-21/

[clvi] Maayan Lubell, Alexander Cornwell, and Idrees Ali, “Iran attacks near Israeli nuclear site, fires long-range missiles for first time’,   Reuters, March 21, 2026,

[clvii] An editorial “Iran Attacks the Gulf Arabs. Will They Fight Back?”,  Wall Street Journal,  March 20, 2026,  https://www.wsj.com/opinion/iran-gulf-states-oman-united-arab-emirates-donald-trump-077149d2?mod=hp_opin_pos_4

[clviii] Trump, Iran Trade Threats to Hit Key Infrastructure, WSJ, March 23, 2026\, https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-us-israel-war-updates-2026?mod=WSJ_home_mediumtopper_pos_1

[clix] Maayan Lubell, Alexander Cornwell and Idrees Ali, “Iran threatens to retaliate against Gulf energy and water after Trump ultimatum”,  Reuters, March 22, 2026

[clx] Maayan Lubell, Alexander Cornwell and Idrees Ali, “Iran threatens to retaliate against Gulf energy and water after Trump ultimatum”,  Reuters,  March 22, 2026

[clxi] Maayan Lubell, Alexander Cornwell and Idrees Ali, “Iran threatens to retaliate against Gulf energy and water after Trump ultimatum”,  Reuters,   March 22, 2026

[clxii] “Israeli airstrikes kill four in Gaza, Palestinian officials say,” Reuters, March 22, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-airstrikes-kill-four-gaza-palestinian-officials-say-2026-03-22/

[clxiii] “A reminder of the US aims for its war with Iran,” BBC News, March 23, 2026, https://www.bbc.com/news/live/ce35wke27ynt

[clxiv] “Asian stock markets tumble,” BBC News, March 23, 2026, https://www.bbc.com/news/live/ce35wke27ynt

[clxv] Idrees Ali and Phil Stewar, “US expected to send thousands more soldiers to Middle East, sources say,” Reuters, March 24, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-expected-send-thousands-soldiers-middle-east-sources-say-2026-03-24/

[clxvi] Ibid

[clxvii] “Israel strikes Tehran as Trump says US negotiating to end war,” Reuters, March 25, 20268:49 AM GMT+5Updated 59 mins ago, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/israel-strikes-tehran-trump-says-us-negotiating-end-war-2026-03-25/

[clxviii] Ibid

[clxix] Ibid

[clxx] Ibid

[clxxi] Ibid

[clxxii] Ibid

[clxxiii] China says 'glimmer of hope' on Iran war talks, AFP, March 26, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2599369/china-says-glimmer-of-hope-on-iran-war-talks

[clxxiv] China says 'glimmer of hope' on Iran war talks, AFP, March 26, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2599369/china-says-glimmer-of-hope-on-iran-war-talks.

[clxxv] Annie Linskey, Alexander Ward, and Alex Leary, “Trump Tells Aides He Wants Speedy End to Iran War”, Wall Street Journal, March 26, 2026, https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-tells-aides-he-wants-speedy-end-to-iran-war-eb9f2b4b?mod=WSJ_home_mediumtopper_pos_1

[clxxvi] Summer Said and Alexander Ward, “U.S. Sends Iran 15-Point Plan to End War”, Wall Street Journal, March 24, 2026, https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-war-us-israel-news-updates/card/u-s-sends-iran-15-point-plan-to-end-war-jwZEspQxJx6ckJ0SNdaS

[clxxvii] Israel took Iran's Araqchi, Qalibaf off hit list after Pakistan request to the US, Pakistani source says, Ariba Shahid, Reuters, March 26, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/israel-took-irans-araqchi-qalibaf-off-hit-list-pakistan-request-pakistani-2026-03-26/

[clxxviii] Ibid

[clxxix] Sophia Saifi, Ivan Watson and Sophie Tanno, “Pakistan's FM confirms country's role as intermediary between US and Iran”, CNN, March 26, 2026, https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/26/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump and Pakistan relaying messages in US-Iran indirect talks, foreign minister says, Web Desk/Reuters/AFP, March 26, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2599352/trump-threatens-to-unleash-hell-if-iran-rejects-latest-us-proposal

[clxxx] Israel Says It Killed IRGC Navy Commander Responsible for Blocking Strait, Wall Street Journal, March 26, 2026, https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-war-us-israel-news-updates

[clxxxi] Laurence Norman, The Narrow Path to a U.S.-Iran Deal, Wall Street Journal, March 26, 2026, https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/the-narrow-path-to-a-u-s-iran-deal-96ceef5d?mod=WTRN_pos1

[clxxxii] Parisa Hafezi, Alexander Cornwell, and Kanishka Singh, “Iran says US ceasefire plan under review, but there are no negotiations”, Reuters, March 26, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/iran-says-it-is-reviewing-us-ceasefire-plan-no-talks-trump-says-tehran-leaders-2026-03-26/

[clxxxiii] Ibid

[clxxxiv] Ibid

[clxxxv] BRIDGET BROWN and LORIAN BELANGER, “Live updates: Trump tells Iran to ‘get serious soon’ on negotiations after Tehran dismisses ceasefire plan”,  AP,  March 26, 2026, https://apnews.com/live/iran-war-israel-trump-03-26-2026

[clxxxvi] Ibid

[clxxxvii] Edna Mohamed and Stephen Quillen, “Iran war live: GCC slams Iran’s attacks, closure of Hormuz Strait”, Al Jazeera Live,   Al Jazeera, March 26, 2026,

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/26/iran-war-live-us-demands-tehran-accept-defeat-israel-pounds-lebanon

[clxxxviii] Ibid

[clxxxix]  Ibid

[cxc] Why is Pakistan involved in efforts to stop the war in Iran?, AFP, March 27, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2599460/why-is-pakistan-involved-in-efforts-to-stop-the-war-in-iran

[cxci] Ibid

[cxcii] President claims talks with the Tehran regime are ‘going very well’ and says he is pausing ‘Energy Plant destruction’, Middle East crisis – live updates, March  27, 2026,

[cxciii] David S. Cloud, Dov Lieber and Milan Czerny, “U.S. and Israel Have Pounded—but Not Eliminated—Iran’s Missile Threat”, Wall Street Journal, March 26, 2026 9:00 pm ET https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-missile-status-us-israel-war-6e9cbd25?mod=WSJ_home_mediumtopper_pos_1

[cxciv] Ibid

[cxcv] BRIDGET BROWN, LORIAN BELANGER, SYLVIA HUI, BERNARD MCGHEE, LUENA RODRIGUEZ-FEO VILEIRA, DREW CALLISTER, PETER ORSI, and NELL CLARK, “Live updates: Trump delays Strait of Hormuz deadline as Wall Street has biggest loss of war”,   AP,  March 27, 2026, https://apnews.com/live/iran-war-israel-trump-03-26-2026https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/26/donald-trump-urges-iran-end-war-or-face-assassinations

[cxcvi] Ibid

[cxcvii] Mohammed Al-Hashemi, “The Strait of Hormuz is not just an oil chokepoint,” Al Jazeera on March 27, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/3/27/the-strait-of-hormuz-is-not-just-an-oil-chokepoint

[cxcviii] UAE willing to join international force to reopen Straits of Hormuz, FT reports, Reuters/Anadolu/Web Desk, March 27, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2599472/uae-willing-to-join-international-force-to-reopen-straits-of-hormuz-ft-reports

[cxcix] Ibid

[cc] Ibid

[cci] Dar to attend Riyadh talks as Pakistan pushes diplomacy amid Middle East crisis, Express Tribune, March 18, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2598242/dar-to-attend-riyadh-talks-as-pakistan-pushes-diplomacy-amid-middle-east-crisis

[ccii] Marcus Weisgerber and Roque Ruiz, “The U.S. Military Assets Damaged or Lost in the Iran War,” Wall Street Journal, March 26, 2026, https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/the-u-s-military-assets-damaged-or-lost-in-the-iran-war-b651127a?mod=world_lead_story.

[cciii] Phil Stewart, Idrees Ali, Jonathan Landay, and Erin Banco, Exclusive: U.S. can only confirm about a third of Iran's missile arsenal destroyed, sources say,” Reuters, March 27, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-can-only-confirm-about-third-irans-missile-arsenal-destroyed-sources-say-2026-03-27/https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-can-only-confirm-about-third-irans-missile-arsenal-destroyed-sources-say-2026-03-27/

[cciv] Ibid

[ccv] Ibid

[ccvi] Parisa Hafezi, Humeyra Pamuk and Steve Holland, “Rubio says Iran war to last 'weeks not months,' no US ground troops needed”, Reuters, March 27, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/trump-pauses-attacks-irans-energy-plants-says-talks-are-going-well-2026-03-26/

[ccvii] Ibid

[ccviii] Ibid

[ccix] Patrick Wintour, “A war of regression: how Trump bombed the US into a worse position with Iran,” The Guardian, March 27, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/27/how-trump-bombed-us-into-worse-position-iran-strategic-failure

[ccx] Global poll says Iran war leaves US increasingly isolated internationally, Express Tribune, March 28, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2599751/global-poll-says-iran-war-leaves-us-increasingly-isolated-internationally

[ccxi] Zsombor Peter and Erin Hale,l “Iran war live: Trump again slams NATO’s lack of support for war on Tehran”, Al Jazeera Live, March 28, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/28/iran-war-live-trump-again-slams-natos-lack-of-support-for-war-on-tehran

[ccxii] Ibid

[ccxiii] Menna Alaaeldin, Nayera Abdallah, and Humeyra Pamuk, “Yemen's Houthis strike at Israel as attacks on Iran”, Reuters, March 28, 20269, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/rubio-sees-us-action-iran-completed-weeks-airstrikes-rumble-2026-03-28/ and Zsombor Peter, Virginia Pietromarchi , and Elis Gjevori, “Iran war live: US-Israeli war on Iran widens with first attack from Yemen, Al Jazeera, March 28, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/28/iran-war-live-trump-again-slams-natos-lack-of-support-for-war-on-tehran

[ccxiv] Ibid

[ccxv] Zsombor Peter, Virginia Pietromarchi and Elis Gjevori, “Iran war live: US-Israeli war on Iran widens with first attack from Yemen, Al Jazeera, March 28, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/28/iran-war-live-trump-again-slams-natos-lack-of-support-for-war-on-tehran

[ccxvi] Ibid

[ccxvii] If regional countries desire security they must not aid Iran's attackers: Pezeshkian, Reuters/AFPMarch 28, 2026,  https://tribune.com.pk/story/2599736/several-troops-injured-multiple-refuelling-aircraft-hit-in-iran-strike-on-us-base-in-saudi-arabiaemail

[ccxviii] Ibid

[ccxix] Ibid

[ccxx] Global poll says Iran war leaves US increasingly isolated internationally, Express Tribune, March 28, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2599751/global-poll-says-iran-war-leaves-us-increasingly-isolated-internationally

[ccxxi] Ibid

[ccxxii] Kamran Yousaf, “Pakistan intensifies diplomatic push as Shehbaz speaks to Iran president,” Express Tribune, March 28, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2599749/pakistan-intensifies-diplomatic-push-as-shehbaz-speaks-to-iran-president

[ccxxiii] Ibid

[ccxxiv] Saudi Foreign Minister Al Saud, Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan, and Egyptian Foreign Minister Abdelatty are expected to hold in-depth discussions with Pakistani leadership on a range of issues, including efforts to de-escalate regional tensions.

[ccxxv] Iran's president says trust needed for talks, Pakistan prime minister's office says, Reuters, March 28, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/irans-president-says-trust-needed-talks-pakistan-prime-ministers-office-says-2026-03-28/