Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, was killed by Israel on September 27. An Iranian Guard deputy commander, Brigadier General Abbas Nilforoushan, died in the same strikes. [1]The killings have marked a sharp escalation in the region and risk a wider war. Nasrallah was a much-respected leader of Hezbollah and had led it for 32 years. He was particularly remarkably close to the Iranian leadership that had created Hezbollah in 1982. Nasrallah had built Hezbollah up into Lebanon's most powerful military and even political force, with wide influence across the Middle East region. His killing, along with other senior commanders, is a major setback to the organization and Iran.

Much earlier, the Gaza war started on October 7, 2023, when Hamas attacked Israel which resulted in the deaths of 1,20 people, mostly civilians. Some 250 were taken as hostages. Fighting continues and as of September 30, 2024, the total number of Palestinians killed since Israel’s retaliation then has risen to at least 41,595 - with 96,092 others injured. As of September 30, Israel's massive retaliation has killed at least 41,595 people in Gaza, most of them civilians. Very recently, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas told the UN Israel has "almost destroyed" Gaza, saying the area is "no longer fit for life"[2]

Since then, Hezbollah has engaged Israel in low-level tit-for-tat skirmishes across the border between southern Lebanon and Israel’s northern frontier. But then after having decapitated Hamas, Israel very recently targeted Hezbollah and has killed a thousand persons in Lebanon. Israel’s bombardment in Lebanon has forced at least 100,000 people to flee into Syria. Israel’s stated aim in its offensive in Lebanon is to “allow the return of tens of thousands of Israeli civilians to their homes in the north of Israel.” He was speaking as Israeli airstrikes on targets in Beirut and elsewhere in Lebanon continued, extending a two-week-long wave of attacks that has eliminated several Hezbollah commanders but also killed about 1,000 Lebanese and forced one million to flee their homes.

Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said that Israeli attacks may have already forced a million people to leave their homes in the “worst displacement in the country’s history.” The International Organization for Migration has mapped 200,000 of the displaced persons.[3]

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Iran on September 30, that “There is nowhere in the Middle East Israel cannot reach. There is nowhere we will not go to protect our people and protect our country".[4]

The political fallout of the Nasrallah killing will be immense. As expected, close ally the United States has shown unwavering support for Israel despite concerns over heavy civilian casualties.

On September 30, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Britain called for a ceasefire, that alone could restore stability and security to the region. All sides should seek de-escalation reiterating that “those involved in the conflict should step back from the brink.” He also added that its support for Israel's right to self-defense was "ironclad".[5]

On September 30, Lebanon’s Prime Minister Mikati called for a ceasefire in the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah during a meeting with French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot in Beirut.

"The key to the solution is to put an end to the Israeli aggression against Lebanon and to revive the appeal launched by the United States and France... in favor of a ceasefire," Mikati said, according to a statement from his office.

Mikati added that the "priority is applying resolution 1701" of the United Nations Security Council, which ended the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah.[6]

 The Arab world was divided by Israel's killing of Nasrallah which was “met with silence by many Sunni-led states across the region, showcasing the split between populations outraged at Israel and authorities who normalized ties with Israel or are opposed to Hezbollah's patron Iran”. Much earlier, Hezbollah had been named as a terrorist organization by the Arab League in 2016, although the League retracted the designation earlier this year. On September 29, 2024, Saudi Arabia said in a statement that it is following the developments in Lebanon with "grave concern", and “urged the preservation of the sovereignty and regional security of Lebanon”. But it made no mention of Nasrallah.[7]

Qatar, the UAE Emirates, and Bahrain have stayed completely quiet on Nasrallah's killing. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said Cairo rejected any violation of Lebanon's sovereignty - without mentioning Nasrallah.[8]

Yemen's Houthis said on Monday that they will escalate military operations against Israel in response to its attacks on the country, a day after an Israeli attack against Houthi targets which the Yemeni group's spokesperson said left five killed and 57 injured.[9]

There have been public protests against Israel and the Nasrallah killing in many countries, including Pakistan, Iran, and Bahrain.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said Tehran would not let any of Israel's "criminal acts" go unanswered. He was referring to the killing of Nasrallah. Russia said Nasrallah's death had led to a serious destabilization in the broader region.

On September 29, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the country “strongly condemns the growing Israeli adventurism in the Middle East. Yesterday's reckless act of killing the Secretary General of Hezbollah in Lebanon constitutes a major escalation in an already volatile region."[10]

 As expected, on September 30 Syria's Foreign Minister Bassam Sabbagh warned that the killing of Nasrallah had pushed "the region to the brink of a dangerous escalation and confrontation.” Speaking at the U.N. General Assembly, Sabbagh said Nasrallah's killing was "causing disastrous effects on peace and security".[11]

Meanwhile, there are reports of an imminent ground invasion of Lebanon. On September 30, Naim Qassem, the deputy leader of Hezbollah said:[12]

We will face any possibility and we are ready if the Israelis decide to enter by land and the resistance forces are ready for a ground engagement  We will choose a secretary-general for the party at the earliest opportunity...and we will fill the leadership and positions permanently…What we are doing is the bare minimum...We know that the battle may be long…We will win as we won in the liberation of 2006 in the face of the Israeli enemy.

Israel has not ruled out a ground invasion and its troops have been training for it. Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant told troops deployed to the country's northern border that Israel “will do whatever it takes to return its citizens to evacuated communities on its northern border safely…The elimination of Nasrallah is a crucial step, but it is not the final one. To ensure the return of Israel’s northern communities, we will employ all our capabilities, and this includes you.”[13]

On September 30, the United States believed that Israel could imminently launch a “limited ground incursion” into southern Lebanon that would target Hezbollah infrastructure near the border. The operation would be “smaller than Israel's 2006 war against Hezbollah and focus on security for border communities”. The Israeli special forces have already conducted small raids into Lebanese territory in recent days as part of preparations for a potential Israeli ground offensive. After operations, Israel is expected to pull back. [14]Meanwhile, Israel has rejected any attempts to reach a ceasefire, with Foreign Minister Israel Katz saying that the government would only accept a ceasefire with Hezbollah moving north of the Litani River and the group being disarmed.

Undoubtedly, a ground invasion of southern Lebanon is imminent. It will deal a further blow to Hezbollah which already has suffered a major setback by Israeli actions lately. However, Hezbollah will not be vanquished by Israel and will recover, much sooner than expected. Being an ideology that has extraordinarily strong roots in society and an extraordinarily sturdy base of public support in Lebanon, Israel cannot defeat it. Iran will fully back Hezbollah to combat Israel. Since Iran has wisely decided to avoid an all-out war with Israel, the war will now turn into a low-key war of attrition in which Israel will be exhausted and will be forced to pull out of southern Lebanon, as before. Iran will bid for time and will show great patience as its fight with Israel is the raison d'être of the Islamic republic, in some ways the very meaning of the existence of the Islamic regime, and thus an integral part of its ideology. Iran will not give up its fight with Israel. The Iranian regime and its protégé, Hezbollah, will show patience and will retaliate in exceedingly small and quick attacks, akin to classic guerilla warfare techniques. Meanwhile, Iran will attack Israel only indirectly through the “axis of resistance” it has built and nurtured over the decades. Most importantly, China and Russia will support Iran somehow and indirectly also. Netanyahu’s triumphalism will then see a sorry day. The Biden administration will be paralyzed into inaction because of the November presidential elections. Any undue pressure on Israel can offend the immensely powerful AIPAC, the Israeli lobby in Washington, DC, and local politics will again triumph over America’s national interests. Thus, we are now entering a forever low-level conflict scenario in which the people will Lebanese and Palestinian people will suffer immensely. The larger Arab and Muslim world will only pay lip service to the cause of ceasefire, and regional peace. No one will take on Israel itself. But fatigue will make sure that Israelis defeat its hopeless and naïve idea of totally vanquishing its enemies finally times to come. It is only through the realization that the so-called enemies of Israel just cannot be defeated that the war will end. But for the immediate future, misery, destruction, and killings can be easily predicted. Meanwhile, the hypocrisy of the world’s leaders will become bare for all the hapless people of the region to see. Eventually, only a two-state solution can bring peace to the region. Nothing else can do it. Simple as that.

Dr. Sohail Mahmood is a political analyst located in Chapel Hill, NC

[1] Maya Gebeily, Laila Bassam and Muhammad Al Gebaly, “Hezbollah says it is ready for any Israeli land invasion in Lebanon, Reuters,  September 30, 2024,https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/apartment-building-beirut-hit-israel-widens-air-campaign-2024-09-29/

[2] “Fighting continues in the Gaza Strip”  , BBC September 26, 202426,2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c981g8mrl8lt?page=14; “Thousands protest as Pakistan condemns killing of Hezbollah leader”,  AFP, September 30, 2024, Thousands protest as Pakistan condemns killing of Hezbollah leader (msn.com)

[3] Israeli bombardment of Lebanon sends 100,000 fleeing to war-torn Syria: UN, Aljazeera, September 30, 2024, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/30/israeli-bombardment-of-lebanon-sends-100000-fleeing-to-war-torn-syria-un

[4] Maya Gebeily, Laila Bassam and Maayan Lubell., “Netanyahu tells Iran nowhere in the Middle East is out of Israel's reach”, Reuters, September 30, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/apartment-building-beirut-hit-israel-widens-air-campaign-2024-09-29/

[5] Britain calls for a ceasefire after Israeli strikes in Lebanon, Reuters, September 30, 2024, https://www.thenews.com.pk/liveblog/live-updates-israelhamas-war

[6] Lebanon calls for a ceasefire with Israel, AFP, September 30, 2024, https://www.thenews.com.pk/liveblog/live-updates-israelhamas-war

[7] Jaidaa Taha, “Arab world split in reactions to killing of Hezbollah chief Nasrallah,” Reuters, September 29, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/arab-world-split-reactions-killing-hezbollah-chief-nasrallah-2024-

[8] Ibid

[9] Yemen's Houthis say they will escalate operations in response to Israeli attacks, Reuters, September 30, 2024, https://www.thenews.com.pk/liveblog/live-updates-israelhamas-war

[10] “Thousands protest as Pakistan condemns killing of Hezbollah leader”, AFP, September 30, 2024, Thousands protest as Pakistan condemns killing of Hezbollah leader (msn.com)

[11] Michelle Nichols, Syria's Foreign Minister says region on the brink of a'a dangerous escalation', Reuters, September 30, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/lebanon-israel-live-updates-hezbollah-hamas-yemen-port-hit-by-airstrikes-2024-09-30/

[12] Maya Gebeily, Laila Bassam and Muhammad Al Gebaly, “Hezbollah says it is ready for any Israeli land invasion in Lebanon”, Reuters, September 30, 2024,https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/apartment-building-beirut-hit-israel-widens-air-campaign-2024-09-29/

[13] Maya Gebeily, Laila Bassam and Muhammad Al Gebaly, “Hezbollah says it is ready for any Israeli land invasion in Lebanon”, Reuters, September 30, 2024,https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/apartment-building-beirut-hit-israel-widens-air-campaign-2024-09-29/

[14] Alex Marquardt, “US believes Israel could imminently launch more limited ground incursion than had been planned, official says”, CNN, September 30, 2024, https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk/index.html & Israel notifies US of limited ground operation plans in Lebanon, Reuters, September 30, 2024, https://www.thenews.com.pk/liveblog/live-updates-israelhamas-war