In the last weeks of September Israel conducted intense air strikes on Beirut, and southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah weapons manufacturing sites. These strikes had killed hundreds of people. As widely expected, Israel then invaded Lebanon overnight on October 1, in what it calls "limited, localized, and targeted” operations aimed at Hezbollah's "infrastructure", which it says poses "an immediate threat to Israeli communities in northern Israel".

The Israeli army claims its ground invasion aims to push Hezbollah north of the Litani River, about 18 miles from the Israeli-Lebanese border, making the group follow the UNSC Resolution 1701. On October 1, UNIFIL, the UN peacekeeping force, warned that “any crossing into Lebanon violates Lebanese sovereignty and territorial integrity, and a violation of resolution 1701”. Israel last invaded Lebanon in 2006. Intense fighting is now taking place between the Israeli military forces and Hezbollah in the area.

Meanwhile, US  officials said on September 30 that they believed Israel’s invasion would be limited and that they had been assured by Israel that there was no plan for a bigger operation by conventional forces or a prolonged occupation of southern Lebanon. On September 30 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Iran’s government against entering the conflict, saying, “There is nowhere we will not go to protect our people and protect our country.”[i]

On September 30 the US declared that “it is sending a few thousand additional forces to the Middle East to bolster the 40,000 already in the region and to help defend Israel”. Secretary of Defense Lloyd. Austin said he agreed with his Israeli defense minister Gallant on the need to destroy Hezbollah's “attack infrastructure” along the border.”[ii]

Hezbollah has extensive tunnel networks as well as bunkers and other military infrastructure just over the border from Israel. Lebanese officials say more than 1,000 people have been killed in the past two weeks, while up to a million may now be displaced. Meanwhile, on September 30, US President Joe Biden said, "We should have a ceasefire now".[iii]

Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Mikati warned that his country is facing “one of the most dangerous phases of its history” and urged the United Nations to provide aid for one million people displaced by Israel’s attacks over recent weeks. “We urgently call for more aid to reinforce our ongoing efforts to provide basic support to displaced civilians,” Mikati said in a meeting with the UN representatives.[iv]

The global response was unified in calling for a halt in hostilities and warning of the dangers of a regional conflagration. The UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon condemned the offensive, saying it violates Lebanon’s “sovereignty and territorial integrity.” The new phase of the Israeli operation sent alarm quickly spreading through the Middle East. It further raises the risk of a wider escalation in the fight with the Iran-backed armed group or even across the region. Turkey, Pakistan, UAE, Qatar, and Japan have all been quick to express concern.

Speaking out against Israel’s ground offensive in southern Lebanon, Turkish President Erdogan claimed on October 1, that Israel would “set its sights” on Turkey next. Erdogan criticized both the international community and the Islamic world for not stopping Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s actions in Gaza and Lebanon. He vowed to stand strong against Israel and to support Lebanon. “Although some people persistently refuse to see it, the Netanyahu government is dreaming a crude dream that includes Anatolia,” Erdogan said, referring to a large swathe of Turkey. “The place that Israel - which is acting with the delirium of the promised lands - will set its sights on after Palestine and Lebanon will be our homeland,” he said.[v]

Turkey condemned the Israeli ground forces’ incursion into southern Lebanon on October 1, 2024, labeling it an “unlawful invasion attempt” and demanding an immediate cessation of the offensive and the withdrawal of Israeli troops. In a statement, the Turkish Foreign Ministry warned that the incursion jeopardizes the security and stability of countries in and out of the region, heightening the risk of a new wave of migration and the resurgence of extremist groups. The statement said countries that provide political support and arms to Israel would also be affected. “The U.N. Security Council must uphold international law and take necessary measures against this assault aimed at occupying Lebanon. Every crime committed by Israel is also a blow to international law and the U.N. Charter,” the statement said.[vi]

Egypt’s Foreign Minister Abdelaty on October 1, deplored Israel’s “serious escalation” in southern Lebanon, after the Israeli military said it launched a “limited and focused” ground incursion. He warned that Israel’s escalation threatens to inflame the entire region “in a way that will lead to dire security and humanitarian consequences. Abdelaty also said Egypt will reject any attempts to set up a new status quo that violates Lebanon’s sovereignty.[vii]

The UAE expressed “deep concern” over the escalation in fighting and “reaffirmed its unwavering position towards the unity of Lebanon, national sovereignty, and territorial integrity.”[viii] It called for international support to prevent further escalation and stressed the importance of providing full protection to civilians. President Al Nahyan directed the delivery of an urgent $100m relief package to the people of Lebanon. Qatar’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs al-Khulaifi warned that “aggression on Lebanon will inflict the worst.” “Now more than ever, it needs our unwavering support to safeguard the country’s integrity and security. Standing with the brotherly people of Lebanon is not just a moral duty, but an imperative necessity,” he said.[ix]

The Japanese government urged an immediate ceasefire and maximum restraint to prevent a further escalation of the conflict. Russia warned that “the geography of hostilities is expanding, which is further destabilizing the region and increasing tensions.” Spain’s foreign minister demanded that Israel cease its ground raids to avoid the conflict enveloping the region.[x]

Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni said on October 1, that “a de-escalation at regional level is urgent and necessary. The protection of civilians is still the priority along with guaranteeing the security of the Italian military contingent of UNIFIL present in southern Lebanon.” Italy is collaborating with allies to stabilize the situation along the Israeli-Lebanon border, and to help people who have been displaced by the fighting return to their homes, Meloni said.[xi]

Said it would continue working towards de-escalation.

NATO’s new chief Mark Rutte said he is “following closely what is happening in Lebanon” and expressed hope that “hostilities will end as soon as possible.” The UK Foreign Minister Lammy warned that “the price of a regional war would be huge.” He added that the UK is speaking to Iran “urging restraint” but did not mention any similar contact with Israel.[xii]

Earlier, Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, was killed by Israel on September 27. An Iranian Guard deputy commander, Brigadier General Nilforoushan, died in the same strikes.[xiii] The killings have marked a sharp escalation in the region and risk a wider war. Nasrallah was a much-respected leader of Hezbollah and had led it for 32 years. He was particularly remarkably close to the Iranian leadership that had created Hezbollah in 1982. Nasrallah had built Hezbollah into Lebanon's most powerful military and even political force, with wide influence across the Middle East region. His killing, along with other senior commanders, is a major setback to the organization and Iran.

Much earlier, the Gaza war started on October 7, 2023, when Hamas attacked Israel which resulted in the deaths of 1,20 people, mostly civilians. Some 250 were taken as hostages. Fighting continues and as of September 30, 2024, the total number of Palestinians killed since Israel’s retaliation then has risen to at least 41,595, with 96,092 others injured. Very recently, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas told the UN Israel has "almost destroyed" Gaza, saying the area is "no longer fit for life"[xiv]

Since then, Hezbollah has engaged Israel in low-level tit-for-tat skirmishes across the border between southern Lebanon and Israel’s northern frontier. But then after having decapitated Hamas, Israel very recently targeted Hezbollah and has killed a thousand persons in Lebanon. Israel’s bombardment in Lebanon has forced at least 100,000 people to flee into Syria. Israel’s stated aim in its offensive in Lebanon is to “allow the return of tens of thousands of Israeli civilians to their homes in the north of Israel.” He was speaking as Israeli airstrikes on targets in Beirut and elsewhere in Lebanon continued, extending a two-week-long wave of attacks that has eliminated several Hezbollah commanders but also killed about 1,000 Lebanese and forced one million to flee their homes.

Earlier, Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Mikati said that Israeli attacks may have already forced a million people to leave their homes in the “worst displacement in the country’s history.” The International Organization for Migration has mapped 200,000 of the displaced persons.[xv]

Prime Minister Netanyahu warned Iran on September 30, that “There is nowhere in the Middle East Israel cannot reach. There is nowhere we will not go to protect our people and protect our country".[xvi]

The political fallout of the Nasrallah killing will be immense. As expected, close ally the US has shown unwavering support for Israel despite concerns over heavy civilian casualties.

Earlier, on September 30, British Prime Minister Starmer said Britain called for a ceasefire, which alone could restore the region's stability and security. All sides should seek de-escalation reiterating that “those involved in the conflict should step back from the brink.” He also added that its support for Israel's right to self-defense was "ironclad".[xvii]

On September 30, Lebanon’s Prime Minister Mikati called for a ceasefire in the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah during a meeting with French Foreign Minister Barrot in Beirut.

"The key to the solution is to put an end to the Israeli aggression against Lebanon and to revive the appeal launched by the United States and France... in favor of a ceasefire," Mikati said. He added that the "priority is applying resolution 1701" of the UNSC, which ended the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah.[xviii]

Meanwhile, the Arab world was divided by Israel's killing of Nasrallah which was “met with silence by many Sunni-led states across the region, showcasing the split between populations outraged at Israel and authorities who normalized ties with Israel or are opposed to Hezbollah's patron Iran”. Much earlier, Hezbollah had been named as a terrorist organization by the Arab League in 2016, although the League retracted the designation earlier this year. On September 29, 2024, Saudi Arabia said in a statement that it is following the developments in Lebanon with "grave concern", and “urged the preservation of the sovereignty and regional security of Lebanon”. But it made no mention of Nasrallah.[xix]

Qatar, the UAE, and Bahrain have stayed completely quiet on Nasrallah's killing. Egyptian President al-Sisi said he rejected any violation of Lebanon's sovereignty - without mentioning Nasrallah.[xx]

Yemen's Houthis said on September 30 that they will escalate military operations against Israel in response to its attacks on the country, a day after an Israeli attack against Houthi targets in which five were killed and 57 injured.[xxi]

Earlier, there have been public protests against the Nasrallah killing in many countries, including but not limited to, Bangladesh, Australia, Pakistan, Iran, and Bahrain. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Tehran would not let any of Israel's "criminal acts" go unanswered. He was referring to the killing of Nasrallah. Russia said Nasrallah's death had led to a serious destabilization in the broader region.

Earlier, on September 29, Pakistan said that it “strongly condemns the growing Israeli adventurism in the Middle East. Yesterday's reckless act of killing the Secretary General of Hezbollah in Lebanon constitutes a major escalation in an already volatile region."[xxii]

As expected, on September 30 Syria's Foreign Minister Sabbagh warned that the killing of Nasrallah had pushed "the region to the brink of a dangerous escalation and confrontation.” Speaking at the U.N. General Assembly, Sabbagh said Nasrallah's killing was "causing disastrous effects on peace and security".[xxiii]

On September 30, Naim Qassem, the deputy leader of Hezbollah said:[xxiv]

We will face any possibility and we are ready if the Israelis decide to enter by land and the resistance forces are prepared for a ground engagement  We will choose a secretary-general for the party at the earliest opportunity...and we will fill the leadership and positions permanently…What we are doing is the bare minimum...We know that the battle may be long…We will win as we won in the liberation of 2006 in the face of the Israeli enemy.

Earlier, Israeli Defence Minister Gallant told troops deployed to the country's northern border that Israel “will do whatever it takes to return its citizens to evacuated communities on its northern border safely. The elimination of Nasrallah is a crucial step, but it is not the final one. To ensure the return of Israel’s northern communities, we will employ all our capabilities, and this includes you.”[xxv]

On September 30, the US believed that Israel could imminently launch a “limited ground incursion” into southern Lebanon that would target Hezbollah infrastructure near the border. The operation would be “smaller than Israel's 2006 war against Hezbollah and focus on security for border communities”. The Israeli special forces have already conducted small raids into Lebanese territory in recent days as part of preparations for a potential Israeli ground offensive. After operations, Israel is expected to pull back. [xxvi] Meanwhile, Israel has rejected any attempts to reach a ceasefire, with Foreign Minister Israel Katz saying that the government would only accept a ceasefire with Hezbollah moving north of the Litani River and the group being disarmed.

What next?

Undoubtedly the ground invasion of southern Lebanon is going to be a severe problem for Israel. It will also deal a further blow to Hezbollah which already has suffered a major setback by Israeli attacks lately. However, Hezbollah will recover and cannot be vanquished by Israel no matter what because of its essential nature. Being an ideology that has extraordinarily strong roots in society and an extraordinarily sturdy base of public support in Lebanon, Israel cannot defeat it. Iran will fully back Hezbollah to combat Israel.

As expected, the US thinks the war with Iran which, according to a senior U.S. administration official, is preparing to “imminently” launch a ballistic missile attack on Israel, warned on October 1 of “severe consequences” should it take place. He said the U.S. is actively supporting Israeli defensive preparations.[xxvii] The wider war is not imminent as Iran, as expected, is showing restraint to avoid one. The US is playing politics, as usual. Meanwhile, Norwegian Foreign Minister Eide on October 1, very correctly said that Iran’s president, Pezeshkian, was sending a signal that it does not want a wider regional conflict. “The really big war will come if there is a confrontation between Iran and Israel,” he told reporters in Oslo. “So far it has not happened, and Iran’s newly elected president is sending clear signals that they do not want it. “Barth Eide said that the conflict in Lebanon between Israel and the militant group Hezbollah was “exactly the escalation we have feared for a long time,” going from “a very dramatic situation in Gaza and the West Bank to a more international conflict.”[xxviii]

Since Iran has wisely decided to avoid an all-out war with Israel, the war will now turn into a low-key war of attrition in which Israel will be exhausted and will be forced to pull out of southern Lebanon, as before. Iran will bid for time and will show great patience as its fight with Israel is the raison d'être of the Islamic republic, in some ways the very meaning of the existence of the Islamic regime, and thus an integral part of its ideology. Iran will not give up its fight with Israel. The Iranian regime and its protégé, Hezbollah, will show patience and will retaliate in exceedingly small and quick attacks, akin to classic guerilla warfare techniques. Meanwhile, Iran will attack Israel only indirectly through the “axis of resistance” it has built and nurtured over the decades. Most importantly, China and Russia will support Iran somehow and indirectly also. Netanyahu’s triumphalism will then see a sorry day. The Biden administration will be paralyzed into inaction because of the November presidential elections. Any undue pressure on Israel can offend the immensely powerful AIPAC, the Israeli lobby in Washington, DC, and local politics will again triumph over America’s national interests. Thus, we are now entering a forever low-level conflict scenario in which the people will Lebanese and Palestinian people will suffer immensely. The larger Arab and Muslim world will only pay lip service to the cause of ceasefire, and regional peace. No one will take on Israel itself. But fatigue will make sure that Israelis defeat its hopeless and naïve idea of totally vanquishing its enemies finally times to come. It is only through the realization that the so-called enemies of Israel just cannot be defeated that the war will end. But for the immediate future, misery, destruction, and killings can be easily predicted. Meanwhile, the hypocrisy of the world’s leaders will become bare for all the hapless people of the region to see. Eventually, only a two-state solution can bring peace to the region. Nothing else can do it. Si

Dr. Sohail Mahmood is a political analyst located in Chapel Hill, NC.

[i] Patrick KingsleyNatan Odenheimer and Victoria Kim, “Live Updates: Israel Launches Invasion Into Southern Lebanon”, New York Times, October 1, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/10/01/world/israel-lebanon-hezbollah

[ii] Ibid

[iii] George Wright & Mallory Moench, “Israel launches 'ground raids' against Hezbollah”, BBC News, October 1, 2024

[iv] The US out of step as the world reacts to Israel’s ground offensive into Lebanon, Aljazeera, October 1, 2024, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/1/us-out-of-step-as-world-reacts-to-israels-ground-offensive-into-l.

[v]  Suzan Fraser, “Turkey’s Erdogan blasts Netanyahu”, AP, October 1, 2024, https://apnews.com/live/israel-lebanon-ground-operation-updates

[vi] Suzan Fraser, “Turkey condemns Israel’s incursion and demands its immediate withdraw”, AP, October 1, 2024, https://apnews.com/live/israel-lebanon-ground-operation-updates#00000192-4783-d27c-ad93-ef9793800000

[vii] Samy Magdy, “Egypt criticizes Israel’s ‘serious escalation’ in Lebanon”, AP, October 1, 2024, https://apnews.com/live/israel-lebanon-ground-operation-updates#00000192-485f-d98b-abf7-597f94b00000

[viii]  The US out of step as the world reacts to Israel’s ground offensive into Lebanon, Aljazeera, October 1, 2024, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/1/us-out-of-step-as-world-reacts-to-israels-ground-offensive-into-l.

[ix]  Ibid

[x] Ibid

[xi] Colleen Barry, “Italy Italy’s premier calls for an ‘urgent and necessary’ de-escalation”, AP, October 1, 2024, https://apnews.com/live/israel-lebanon-ground-operation-updates#00000192-46da-d890-a9d2-e6deef270000

[xii]  The US out of step as the world reacts to Israel’s ground offensive into Lebanon, Aljazeera, October 1, 2024, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/1/us-out-of-step-as-world-reacts-to-israels-ground-offensive-into-l.

[xiii] Maya Gebeily, Laila Bassam and Muhammad Al Gebaly, “Hezbollah says it is ready for any Israeli land invasion in Lebanon, Reuters,  September 30, 2024,https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/apartment-building-beirut-hit-israel-widens-air-campaign-2024-09-29/

[xiv] “Fighting continues in the Gaza Strip”, BBC September 26, 2024,  https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c981g8mrl8lt?page=14; “Thousands protest as Pakistan condemns killing of Hezbollah leader”, AFP, September 30, 2024, Thousands protest as Pakistan condemns killing of Hezbollah leader (msn.com)

[xv] Israeli bombardment of Lebanon sends 100,000 fleeing to war-torn Syria: UN, Aljazeera, September 30, 2024, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/30/israeli-bombardment-of-lebanon-sends-100000-fleeing-to-war-torn-syria-un

[xvi] Maya Gebeily, Laila Bassam and Maayan Lubell., “Netanyahu tells Iran nowhere in the Middle East is out of Israel's reach”, Reuters, September 30, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/apartment-building-beirut-hit-israel-widens-air-campaign-2024-09-29/

[xvii] Britain calls for a ceasefire after Israeli strikes in Lebanon, Reuters, September 30, 2024, https://www.thenews.com.pk/liveblog/live-updates-israelhamas-war

[xviii] Lebanon calls for a ceasefire with Israel, AFP, September 30, 2024, https://www.thenews.com.pk/liveblog/live-updates-israelhamas-war

[xix] Jaidaa Taha, “Arab world split in reactions to the killing of Hezbollah chief Nasrallah,” Reuters, September 29, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/arab-world-split-reactions-killing-hezbollah-chief-nasrallah-2024-

[xx] Ibid

[xxi] Yemen's Houthis say they will escalate operations in response to Israeli attacks, Reuters, September 30, 2024, https://www.thenews.com.pk/liveblog/live-updates-israelhamas-war

[xxii] “Thousands protest as Pakistan condemns killing of Hezbollah leader”, AFP, September 30, 2024, Thousands protest as Pakistan condemns killing of Hezbollah leader (msn.com)

[xxiii] Michelle Nichols, Syria's Foreign Minister says region on the brink of a'a dangerous escalation', Reuters, September 30, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/lebanon-israel-live-updates-hezbollah-hamas-yemen-port-hit-by-airstrikes-2024-09-30/

[xxiv] Maya Gebeily, Laila Bassam and Muhammad Al Gebaly, “Hezbollah says it is ready for any Israeli land invasion in Lebanon”, Reuters, September 30, 2024,https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/apartment-building-beirut-hit-israel-widens-air-campaign-2024-09-29/

[xxv] Maya Gebeily, Laila Bassam and Muhammad Al Gebaly, “Hezbollah says it is ready for any Israeli land invasion in Lebanon”, Reuters, September 30, 2024,https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/apartment-building-beirut-hit-israel-widens-air-campaign-2024-09-29/

[xxvi] Alex Marquardt, “US believes Israel could imminently launch more limited ground incursion than had been planned, official says”, CNN, September 30, 2024, https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-30-24-intl-hnk/index.html & Israel notifies US of limited ground operation plans in Lebanon, Reuters, September 30, 2024, https://www.thenews.com.pk/liveblog/live-updates-israelhamas-war

[xxvii] Aamer Madhani, “Iran preparing imminent missile attack on Israel, US warns”, AP, October 1, 2024, https://apnews.com/live/israel-lebanon-ground-operation-updates#00000192-4858-dda9-a7bb-fc7b8f8d0000

[xxviii] Jan Olse, “Norwegian foreign minister says Iran is showing restraint”, AP, October 1, 2024, https://apnews.com/live/israel-lebanon-ground-operation-updates#00000192-47ce-dda9-a7bb-ffffc1a50000