On October 26 Israel attacked military targets in Iran in response to an Iranian ballistic missile attack earlier this month. There was no sign that oil or nuclear sites were struck, and Iran insisted the strikes caused only 'limited damage, downplaying their impact.[1] Iran said the strikes had killed four soldiers. Israel, which for the first time publicly acknowledged conducting a military operation inside Iran. Earlier, the Biden administration had warned Israel; against striking sensitive nuclear sites.[2] Israel also s military warned Iran against responding soon after it finished the attack. But Iran held back from any threat of immediate retaliation and said it was prioritizing a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon.[3] Iran’s statements are easing fears of an uncontrollable conflict between the two most powerful militaries in the Middle East. Iran’s supreme leader, meanwhile, said Israeli strikes on the country “should not be exaggerated nor downplayed,” while stopping short of calling for retaliation, suggesting Iran is carefully weighing its response to the attack.[4]

**Iran-Israel Tensions: History and Recent Escalations**

The remarks from Ayatollah  Khamenei on October 27, 2024, are the latest suggesting Iran is carefully weighing its response to the attack.[5] Meanwhile, on October 27 Netanyahu said that the strikes “severely harmed” Iran and achieved all of Israel’s goals.[6] Iran now faces a decision about whether to up the ante: If it retaliates, that could further fan the flames of crisis, but if not, it runs the risk of looking weak with its allies and at home.

For years, Israel and Iran have fought a clandestine war in which each side targets the other’s interests and allies, while rarely taking responsibility for their attacks. That turned into an open confrontation as the war between Israel and Hamas, Iran’s ally in Gaza, pulled the two countries toward a direct clash.

After the Hamas-led attack in Israel a year ago unleashed Israel’s devastating war in Gaza, Iran’s other proxies in the Middle East, including Hezbollah, began striking Israel in solidarity with their Palestinian ally. Israel, in turn, scaled up its attacks on Iranian interests around the region, with both sides responding in force as tensions flared at various moments.[7]

Iran accused Israel of inflaming tensions across the region and said that Tehran was “entitled and obligated to defend itself against foreign acts of aggression.” The powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps played down the attacks.[8]

**The Role of the United States in Israel’s Regional Strategy**

The US informed that Defense Secretary Austin had spoken with Gallant, Israel’s defense minister, to receive updates on the strikes in Iran. A spokesperson for the National Security Council, said after the attack began that the United States had been informed of Israel’s plans.[9]

Israel warned Iran against further escalation, saying in a statement that it would be “obligated to respond.” A military spokesperson said that there were no immediate changes to the government’s civil defense orders to the public, showing that the authorities were not expecting an attack.[10]

US President Biden said on October 26 said he hopes Israel’s latest strikes on Iran will mark the end of a months-long cycle of escalation, as his administration doubles down on efforts to reach a ceasefire deal for Gaza and Lebanon. “Hope this is the end,” he told reporters.

Biden said Israel gave him a heads up and it appeared “they didn’t hit anything but military targets” in their attacks. His administration is pushing to revive stalled Gaza ceasefire negotiations, which have been overshadowed by months of escalating aggression between Iran and Israel.[11]

There were global calls for restraint, including one from the United Nations head António Guterres, who said he was “deeply alarmed” and called on all sides to step back from further military action. The European Union, Russia, Arab Gulf nations, G7 finance ministers, and central bank governors also warned against further escalation. But months of such demands have had negligible impact on the ground. Hawks in both Israel and Iran are pushing for a more aggressive approach and the risks of costly miscalculations are immeasurably higher than even a few months ago.

Some Israeli political and security figures describe this moment as a once-in-a-generation chance to strike Iran when its allies are in disarray and its defenses have been pounded by waves of airstrikes. Netanyahu has been more cautious in the face of persistent warnings from Washington about the risk of escalation. Israel has relied on US missile systems to help stave off Iranian attacks and uses US weapons to fight its wars in Gaza and Lebanon.

The direct exchange of fire began early in April when Israel hit an Iranian diplomatic compound in the Syrian capital Damascus. Iran responded with its first direct drone and missile attacks on Israel, which in turn launched a “limited” strike.

In July Israel killed Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, and in September assassinated Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah in Beirut. In October Iran fired 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, saying it was in response to those killings.

Both sides want to avoid full-blown war, allies and analysts say, and have calibrated each round of attacks accordingly. But collectively the exchanges of fire have edged the region into an unprecedented high-stakes confrontation.

But the Israeli attack has indeed raised fears of an all-out regional war pitting Israel and the United States against Iran and its militant proxies, which include Hamas and the Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon, where Israel launched a ground invasion earlier this month after nearly a year of lower-level conflict.[12]

This strike marks a rare, confrontation in the otherwise covert conflict between Israel and Iran. Both nations have historically worked in the shadows, targeting each other’s allies and assets indirectly. However, Israel’s decision to openly acknowledge this strike shows a shift in its approach, influenced by U.S. pressure, as President Biden emphasized the need to de-escalate the situation and restore efforts for a Gaza ceasefire.

The October 7, 2023, Hamas assault on Israel sparked an intensification of Israeli strikes on Iranian proxies, including Hezbollah and the Houthis, which Iran relies on for regional leverage. Israel’s ongoing operations have weakened these alliances, placing further strain on Iran’s strategy. Tehran is facing internal economic challenges, domestic dissent, and uncertainties surrounding the leadership succession of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, all of which complicate its ability to engage in extended conflict. Amid these pressures, Iran’s restraint may signal its preference to avoid a direct war while managing its image of strength among allies.

For now, both Israel and Iran favor a carefully calibrated conflict, where deterrent actions are exchanged without breaching the threshold of open war. However, hawkish voices in Israel and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Iran are pressing for stronger responses, raising the stakes, and making the risk of miscalculation significant. As both sides navigate this high-stakes confrontation, the region faces a critical juncture, where each move could either stabilize or dangerously intensify the crisis.

Steven Erlanger, in his outstanding article “In Deciding Whether to Retaliate, Iran Faces a Dilemma”, published in The New York Times on October 26, 2024, said:[13]

Iran faces a dilemma after the Israeli strikes on Saturday. If it retaliates, it risks further escalation at a time when its economy is struggling, its allies are faltering, its military vulnerability is clear, and its leadership succession is in play. If it does not, it risks looking weak to those same allies, as well as to more aggressive and powerful voices at home. Iran is already in the middle of a regional war. Since the Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7, 2023, Israel has moved swiftly to damage the militant group in Gaza and other Iranian proxies, including Hezbollah, the Houthis, and its allies in Syria and Iraq. These groups represent Iran’s “forward defense” against Israel, the heart of the nation’s deterrence. … The damage to allies over the past year, as well as its clear technical and military weakness compared with Israel, will put more pressure on Iran to advance its nuclear program and go for a bomb. Iran is already within weeks of creating bomb-quality uranium, and there are strong voices in Iran arguing that the best deterrent against Israel and the United States is to have nuclear weapons, as Israel itself possesses. …. Both Israel and Iran are eager to restore the so-called deterrence effect that they believe comes with retaliatory strikes. As they see it, it enhances their ability to intimidate each other and allows them to limit each other’s power…These back-and-forth attacks, however, carefully calibrated, can easily spill over into wider violence if a hospital or a school is hit, even by accident, and cause significant civilian casualties.

Given its weaknesses, Iran will avoid an all-out war with Israel because it will destroy the country. War will destabilize the entire Middle East region and play havoc with the global energy market. Therefore, no one wants a war, including Israel and the US. The problem is that escalating tensions might just spiral out of control and an accident may spark a war. The only power that can prevent one is the US, but it is paralyzed into inaction because of the country’s upcoming presidential election due very soon on November 5. The Biden administration is trying to restrain the aggressiveness of its Israeli ally but may not do so. A miscalculation, disinformation, and recklessness on the part of either Israel or Iran may yet lead to an unwanted situation where war results.  Consider the context of the Israel-Iran conflict situation. Israel is busy fighting on two other fronts: Gaza and Lebanon.

Meanwhile, Israeli aggression continues unabated in Gaza. Israel’s latest military offensive in northern Gaza entered its third week as its air force and ground troops pressed on with the fight in Lebanon. On October 27, 2024, Israeli strikes on northern Gaza killed at least 22 people, mostly women and children, Palestinian officials said Sunday, as the Israeli offensive in the hard-hit and isolated north entered a third week and aid groups described a humanitarian catastrophe. Meanwhile, Israel said it targeted militants.[14]

**Israel’s Operations in Gaza and Lebanon: Humanitarian and Security Concerns**

Oxfam, the United Kingdom-based NGO, said on October 27, that Israel is using starvation as a weapon in its genocide against the Palestinians and that it was unable to reach people in the north because of Israel’s ongoing bombing campaign.

Aid agencies say about 96 percent of Gaza’s population is facing elevated levels of food shortages. According to UNICEF, nine out of 10 children lack the nutrition they need for growth and development. At least 37 children have died of malnutrition or dehydration in a year of war. The United Nations says Israel has blocked the entry of 83 percent of food aid into the Strip since the war began. It said about 50,000 children below the age of five need urgent treatment for malnutrition by the end of the year.

The Oxfam warning came as Israeli forces bombed more neighborhoods in northern Gaza on Sunday and humanitarian officials sounded alarm about the ongoing ground assault by Israeli forces which is forcibly displacing tens of thousands of residents out of the area.[15]

At least 35 people were killed in Beit Lahiya on Saturday after the Israeli army targeted five buildings in the north of the Strip. Another 10 people were killed in a separate attack in Beit Lahiya.

Israel’s strikes on the towns of Jabalia, Beit Hanoon, and Beit Lahiya in northern Gaza have so far killed about 800 Palestinians during the ongoing siege.

Albanese, the UN special rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territories, said on social media platform X that “the entire population of Gaza is at risk of dying in a genocide that has been announced and executed under our watch”.

Palestinian health officials said the siege had crippled the healthcare system in northern Gaza and was blocking medical teams from reaching bombed sites.

Israel maintains that its forces have returned to northern Gaza more than a year into the war to root out Hamas fighters who had regrouped there. It claimed it “eliminated over 40 terrorists” in the Jabalia area in the past 24 hours, as well as dismantled infrastructure and found “large quantities of military equipment”.[16]

The Gaza Health Ministry’s emergency service said that 11 women and two children were among the 22 killed in the strikes on October 26 on several homes and buildings in the northern Gaza town of Beit Lahiya. It said a further 15 people were wounded and that the death toll could rise.

Israel has been waging a massive air and ground offensive in northern Gaza since October 6, saying that Hamas militants have regrouped there. Hundreds of people have been killed and tens of thousands of Palestinians have fled to Gaza City in the latest wave of displacement in the yearlong war.

Aid groups have warned of a catastrophic situation in northern Gaza, which was the first target of Israel’s ground offensive and had already suffered the heaviest destruction of the war. Israel has severely limited the entry of basic humanitarian aid in recent weeks, and the three remaining hospitals in the north say they have been overwhelmed by waves of wounded people.

The war began when Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. They killed around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducted around 250. Some 100 hostages are still inside Gaza, around a third of whom are believed to be dead.

Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed more than 42,000 Palestinians, more than half of those killed were women and children. Israel says it has killed over 17,000 militants.

The offensive has devastated much of the impoverished coastal territory and displaced around 90% of its population of 2.3 million, often multiple times. Hundreds of thousands of people have crowded into squalid tent camps along the coast, and aid groups say hunger is rampant.

After months of repeatedly dashed hopes, Biden’s diplomats have once again taken up efforts to broker a ceasefire and hostage release deal for Gaza, where Israeli troops are pursuing an intense ground operation in the north of the enclave. On October 27, the UN’s acting humanitarian chief Msuya called for an urgent halt to the military operation, attacks on health facilities, and mass detentions there. “The entire population of northern Gaza is at risk of dying,” she said.

Many Palestinians fear that Israeli attacks and a tightening of the siege on the area aim to force the 400,000 people still living in Gaza City and surrounding towns to flee.

The “surrender or starve” tactics are outlined in a proposal known as “the generals’ plan”, presented to Benjamin Netanyahu’s government last month. Experts say such tactics amount to war crimes.

The ground offensive that began on October 6 has killed at least 800 people, and earlier this month the Biden administration’s concerns over shortages of food and medical supplies prompted a warning that Israeli access to US weapons funding would be at risk unless more aid reached Gaza.

Israel denies trying to pressure civilians to leave and says the new offensive is necessary to stop Hamas fighters regrouping. Israel has been waging a massive air and ground offensive in northern Gaza since October 6, saying that Hamas militants have regrouped there. Hundreds of people have been killed and tens of thousands of Palestinians have fled to Gaza City in the latest wave of displacement in the yearlong war.

Aid groups have warned of a catastrophic situation in northern Gaza, which was the first target of Israel’s ground offensive and had already suffered the heaviest destruction of the war. Israel has severely limited the entry of basic humanitarian aid in recent weeks, and the three remaining hospitals in the north say they have been overwhelmed by waves of wounded people.

The International Committee of the Red Cross on October 26 said that ongoing Israeli evacuation orders and restrictions on the entry of essential supplies to the north had left the civilian population in “horrific circumstances.”[17]

The war began when Hamas attacked Israel in a surprise attack on Oct. 7, 2023. The militant group around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducted around 250. Some 100 hostages are still inside Gaza, around a third of whom are believed to be dead.

Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed more than 42,000 Palestinians, according to the local Health Ministry. The ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count but says more than half of those killed were women and children. Israel says it has killed over 17,000 militants, without providing evidence.

The offensive has devastated much of the impoverished coastal territory and displaced around 90% of its population of 2.3 million, often multiple times. Hundreds of thousands of people have crowded into squalid tent camps along the coast, and aid groups say hunger is rampant.[18]

In Lebanon, Israel launched its ground invasion earlier in October after a year of low-intensity conflicts with Hezbollah continued its aggression. On October 26, Israel targeted the southern suburbs of Beirut. Israeli forces had struck sites in Lebanon and battled Hezbollah fighters in multiple locations in the last day.[19] The Israeli military said on October 27, that four soldiers, including a military rabbi, were killed in fighting in southern Lebanon, without providing details about the circumstances. It said five other personnel were severely wounded. An explosive drone and a projectile fired from Lebanon wounded five people in Israel on October 27.[20]

**Conclusion: The Uncertain Path to Peace**

The only path to peace is a two-state solution which seems impossible today. Although US Secretary of State Blinken is again making the effort for a ceasefire and exchange of prisoners in Gaza it is too little too late. The Biden administration is now a lame duck and is not taken seriously anymore. It had the time to pressure Israel into a ceasefire deal but unfortunately chose not to do it for selfish domestic political reasons. The future is dismal for the Palestinians and the Lebanese. There is no doubt about that stark but unfortunate fact. We wish it were otherwise. It goes without repetition that only a two-state solution can bring peace and security to the region. Nothing else can work. However, it will not happen, and the people will continue to suffer endlessly.

Dr. Sohail Mahmood is a political analyst in Chapel Hill, NC.

[1] Taryn Pedler, “Iran insists Israel's missile blitz caused 'limited damage' as it vows 'no limits' on its revenge after IDF jets hit 20 military sites”, Mail Online, October 27, 2024

[2] Pakistan tightens airspace security as Israel-Iran tensions rise, ET, October 27, 2024, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2505556/pakistan-tightens-airspace-security-as-israel-iran-tensions-rise

[3] Ibid

[4] AMI BENTOV, SAMY MAGDY, TIA GOLDENBERG and JOSEPH KRAUSS, “Israeli strikes on Gaza kill 22, officials say, while truck ramming near Tel Aviv hurts dozens”, Associate Press,  October 27, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-lebanon-hezbollah-iran-news-10-27-2024-b4bf551e7c7de2af29257f6d4cc74da2

[5] Namita Singh, “Israel-Iran latest: Ayatollah stops short of demanding revenge for Israeli strikes as Tehran mulls response”, The Independent, October 27, 2024,

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/israel-iran-latest-ayatollah-stops-short-of-demanding-revenge-for-israeli-strikes-as-tehran-mulls-response/ar-AA1sWUXc?ocid=BingNewsSerp

[6] AMI BENTOV, SAMY MAGDY, TIA GOLDENBERG and JOSEPH KRAUSS, “Israeli strikes on Gaza kill 22, officials say, while truck ramming near Tel Aviv hurts dozens, ,Associate Press,  October 27, 2024,  https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-lebanon-hezbollah-iran-news-10-27-2024-b4bf551e7c7de2af29257f6d4cc74da2

[7] Patrick Kingsley, Farnaz Fassihi, Ronen Bergman and Steven Erlanger, “Israel’s Retaliatory Attack on Iran Appears Carefully Calibrated, New York Times,

Oct. 26, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/10/26/world/israel-iran-lebanon-gaza

[8] Ibid

[9] Ibid

[10] Ibid

[11] Emma Graham-Harrison, “Joe Biden says he hopes latest Israeli strike on Iran will end escalation”, The Observer, October 26, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/26/joe-biden-says-he-hopes-latest-israeli-strike-on-iran-will-end-escalation

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[12] AMI BENTOV, SAMY MAGDY, TIA GOLDENBERG and JOSEPH KRAUSS, “Israeli strikes on Gaza kill 22, officials say, while truck ramming near Tel Aviv hurts dozens”, Associated Press, October 27, 2024, , https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-lebanon-hezbollah-iran-news-10-27-2024-b4bf551e7c7de2af29257f6d4cc74da2

[13] Steven Erlanger, “In Deciding Whether to Retaliate, Iran Faces a Dilemma”, New York Times, Oct. 26, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/26/world/middleeast/iran-israel-retaliation.html

[14] AMI BENTOV, SAMY MAGDY, TIA GOLDENBERG and JOSEPH KRAUSS, “Israeli strikes on Gaza kill 22, officials say, while truck ramming near Tel Aviv hurts dozens”, Associated Press, October 27, 2024, , https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-lebanon-hezbollah-iran-news-10-27-2024-b4bf551e7c7de2af29257f6d4cc74da2

[15] Palestinians ‘starving to death’ in northern Gaza due to Israeli siege, Al Jazeera, October 27, 2024

[16] Ibid

[17] AMI BENTOV, SAMY MAGDY, TIA GOLDENBERG and JOSEPH KRAUSS, “Israeli strikes on Gaza kill 22, officials say, while truck ramming near Tel Aviv hurts dozens”, ,Associate Press,  October 27, 2024,  https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-lebanon-hezbollah-iran-news-10-27-2024-b4bf551e7c7de2af29257f6d4cc74da2

[18] Ibid

[19] Patrick Kingsley, Farnaz Fassihi, Ronen Bergman and Steven Erlanger, “Israel’s Retaliatory Attack on Iran Appears Carefully Calibrated”, New York Times,

Oct. 26, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/10/26/world/israel-iran-lebanon-gaza

[20]AMI BENTOV, SAMY MAGDY, TIA GOLDENBERG and JOSEPH KRAUSS, “Israeli strikes on Gaza kill 22, officials say, while truck ramming near Tel Aviv hurts dozens”, Associate Press, October 27, 2024,  https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-lebanon-hezbollah-iran-news-10-27-2024-b4bf551e7c7de2af29257f6d4cc74da2