On December 15, in a surprising move, the U.S. imposed additional sanctions on Pakistan's ballistic missile program. This has raised concerns about the stability of South Asia. Three domestically based private vendors’ and one state-run missile development agency came under sanctions. Pakistan, the South Asian nation, has an enduring rivalry with India and perceives it as a threat to its sovereignty. The U.S.-biased approach to policies will create a strategic imbalance in South Asia that can fuel intense conflicts.

Southern Asia holds a wider geopolitical region centered around the subcontinent, widening the aperture of analysis beyond just India and Pakistan. This framing captures the essential trilateral dynamic between India, Pakistan, and China. If this region is peaceful and prosperous, it has the potential to support and sustain the international order. Understanding the evolution of South Asian deterrence practice and perspective is crucial for 21st-century global security. 

Weapons maintain and sustain deterrence; one state can coerce the behavior of an adversary state with an equally more potent weapon. India, which is four times bigger than Pakistan, has the only thing to prevent it from intervening and aggression, and that is Pakistan's nuclear facility. Donald Brennan, a strategist, argues that the balance of power leads to deterrence because of mutually assured destruction (MAD). The Russian invasion of Ukraine further endorses the statement, as Russia is relatively more powerful than Ukraine. This imbalance in the defensive capability and the absence of deterrence had been the primary cause of Russia's invasion.

Weapons define enemies, and Pakistan's nuclear program is adhered to for defensive purposes and to deter India from any aggression. The safety operating protocol of Pakistan's nuclear program has also been applauded by the International Atomic Energy Commission (IAEA). In contrast, India, which has developed the Agni 5 missile with an extended range of 5000 km, is further trying to innovate its hypersonic missile technology day by day. Not only this, several incidents illustrate that their safety operating procedures are not aligned with the IAEA standards.

Now, the surprising fact is that Pakistan has always been viewed with suspicion. Although Pakistan and the U.S. have had long-standing strategic relations, from the Cold War to the war on terror, America's policies still lean towards India. The impression would not be wrong that the U.S. now sees India as an ally to counter China so that it can try to control the region with its military and coercive power in the Asia Pacific.

Pakistan adheres to the principle of minimum credible deterrence, and its nuclear doctrine aims to deter any potential aggression, not to provoke it. After Mutual Assured Destruction, this perception has also changed because the use of nuclear weapons does not benefit anyone, but the loss of both parties is inevitable. Hence, nuclear technology is now used for socio-economic reasons such as power generation and advanced agricultural purposes.

The impression of a selective and biased approach to the U.S. sanctions can also be sensed by the fact that on March 9, 2022, the Indian authority accidentally fired a BrahMos missile into Pakistani territory, and subsequently, the Indian authority confessed to a technical mistake. The incident had nearly undermined the peace of the region, but India did not face any backlash from the international community, especially the U.S. Moreover, it has also been hard news for security analysts about the existence of the nuclear black market in India; this revelation has further exposed the trade of uranium and radioactive material in the black market. 

While experts and scientific studies confirm that Pakistan's nuclear infrastructure is more secure than India's, Pakistan's Strategic Plans Division manages the country's nuclear program with unparalleled efficiency and precision, and Pakistan has repeatedly offered to join international nonproliferation regimes on fair and non-discriminatory terms. Straightforwardly, Pakistan has met its international nuclear responsibilities, which have earned plaudits from the IAEA. Pakistan is more compliant with nonproliferation agreements than many nuclear powers, according to statistical data. Speculative tales aside, Pakistan's nuclear security safeguards have never been breached in recorded history.

The world is worried about India because of its history of nuclear material theft and illicit leaks. Independent evaluations rank Pakistan's nuclear safeguards higher among regional competitors, placing them among the best internationally. India is fixated on nuclear development and regional dominance, in sharp contrast to Pakistan's nonviolent use of nuclear technology, which benefits agriculture, health, industry, and, ultimately, people's lives.

The biased approach of the U.S. in the South Asia region would exacerbate the security dilemma. India, which expends $83.6 billion on defence annually, makes it 4th in the rank in military spending, while Pakistan has spent $6.15 billion in 2023, and India is advancing rapidly; their missile and military capabilities will create and disturb the power balance, and it may lead to intense conflicts in the region. Pakistan's adherence to the commitment to nuclear nonproliferation regimes is very straightforward. It demands pair actions towards all relevant stakeholders, but it should be on an equality basis, and it is only possible for inclusive dialogue and consensus building.

Abdul Mussawer Safi is pursuing his bachelor's in international relations at the National Defense University (NDU), Islamabad. He has a profound interest in the regional dynamics of South Asia. Mussawer has also worked with refutable think tanks such as Institute of Policy studies (IPS), Islamabad Pak afghan youth forum (PAYF) and South Asia time (SAT).He tweets at @MussawerSafi and can be reached at mussawersafi1999@gmail.com