A possible rapprochement between Canada and the European Union is being discussed in world politics. At first glance, this seems like a strange political decision, but if you delve deeper into the situation, you can understand Canada’s motives.

Why is Canada moving closer to Europe?

Ottawa is considering the possibility of potentially replacing the American market with the European one. One of the main reasons is the unstable economic policy of Donald Trump in the role of Canada’s partner.

The current U.S. president has imposed trade duties of 25% on imports of cars and their spare parts. This has become a serious insult to Canada and a challenge to its economy.

Although in 1965, an agreement was signed on the Canadian-American agreement on automotive products, in which one of the main points was the absence of tariffs. At one time, this agreement allowed Canada to produce significantly fewer car models. Instead, large branch plants were built to produce only one model of cars for the whole of North America.

In addition, there were statements about a serious threat to the sovereignty of Canadian territories, with Canada potentially becoming the 51st state of the United States. According to The New York Times, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made a statement about the whole situation: “He wants to see the complete collapse of the Canadian economy, because then it will be easier for him to annex us.”

In turn, Canada imposed tariffs on imports of goods from the United States of up to 60 billion Canadian dollars (49 billion U.S. dollars) and demonstrated a desire to get closer to the EU in order to find a new and greater economic partner. Donald Trump responded to this news with a threat that, in the event of a threat to the U.S. economy, he would increase the scale of duties imposed on Canada and the EU.

After Canada loses confidence in the United States as an ally, measures for rapprochement with Europe will be taken. The first steps towards this have already been taken, and Canada is seeking closer cooperation in the defense industry with Italy and the EU. According to Bloomberg, the Canadian ambassador in Rome sent a letter on the issue of urgency. In particular, it requests Rome to provide support in ensuring that legislative texts allow third parties to cooperate with the EU defense plan.

Advantages of Canada’s rapprochement with the European Union

The idea of cooperation or Canada’s accession to the European Union could be a beneficial outcome for both sides. Canada’s entry into the EU will make it easier to obtain European technologies and specialists in economics, security, medicine, and science.

Full access to the European market would give Canadian companies the opportunity to trade freely, receive investments, and reduce tariff barriers.

It would also give Canada the opportunity to step out of the shadow of the United States in matters of identity and foreign policy. Due to the influence of the European Union, it will be easier for Canada to defend its personal interests.

Joint military projects would strengthen the security and defense positions of all parties. Sharing experiences through military exercises and developing new strategies will lead to an increase in the army’s skill level.

A survey conducted by Abacus Data showed that 44% of Canadians are positive about the country’s possible accession to the EU, 34% are opposed, and 22% found it difficult to answer.

Benefits for the European Union

Canada is one of the largest economies in the world, with huge reserves of natural resources. Canada’s accession to the EU would strengthen trade between European countries and Canada, facilitating the supply of raw materials, which in turn would increase the EU’s energy security, making it less dependent on other suppliers, including Russia.

Canada’s admission to the EU would strengthen its political power and influence at the international level, especially if Canada became less dependent on Washington.

The EU itself would receive the same advantages as Canada in cooperation, including military contracts, simplified access to technology and specialists, investments, and economic strengthening.

Obstacles and risks of integration

The main difficulty of joining is Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union, according to which only European states can apply for membership. Despite the fact that Canada shares a land border with Denmark (Hans Island), Canada has no territories in Europe.

Many countries have tried or are trying to join the EU. Turkey has been trying to join for a long time, and it took 12 years for its application to be considered in order to obtain candidate status, mainly because of the difficulty of bringing it up to EU standards, the lack of democracy, and human rights violations.

There are several legal aspects that may make entry impossible. Canada has close cultural and historical ties with Europe, but its geographical location does not allow it to join.

The U.S. reaction to Canada’s possible accession to the EU is likely to be negative. The United States is Canada’s largest partner, and the replacement of the American market with the European one may negatively affect the U.S. economy.

Donald Trump may consider this a threat to the U.S. economy and take measures such as imposing new large-scale trade duties on Canadian goods, restricting access to Canadian companies in the United States, diplomatic measures aimed at putting pressure on the Canadian leadership, and economic sanctions against Canada, which would complicate trade not only with the United States but also with its allies.

The situation with the United States may reach such a state that American companies will begin to close their factories in Canada or move production to other countries.

The consequences for Canada in this case would be very serious: rising unemployment in the affected regions, losses in tax revenues, the need to stimulate the development of national production, and limited investment in Canadian companies.

This would be a repeat of the trade war with China, when Donald Trump launched a trade war by imposing high tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of Chinese goods. The massive closure of American companies in China and their relocation to neighboring countries had significant economic consequences.

Canada’s geographical location is too far from Europe, which may cause problems in integration into the common European market and joint decision-making. Even with modern technology, logistics and transportation of goods between Canada and Europe will be more difficult and expensive than within the EU.

The difficulty of joining the EU

In the European Union, the principle of unanimous approval applies to the admission of new members. Thus, political differences and the national interests of individual countries can slow down the process or even block Canada’s accession to the EU due to economic concerns or fears of competition with Canadian companies, as well as political factors related to maintaining close relations with the United States.

Canada’s possible membership in the EU may also raise questions for Morocco, whose application for membership in 1987 was rejected because the country was not considered a European state.

A likely scenario

The most likely outcome of events is Canada’s rapprochement with the European Union and its desire to diversify its economic and political ties without joining the EU. The reason for this is Canada’s geographical location, as well as the risk of spoiling relations with the United States, especially after the start of Donald Trump’s second presidential term.

As a result of Ottawa’s rapprochement with Brussels, Canada will become less financially and economically dependent on the United States, strengthening the EU in the global market and possibly improving its own military power

Alisher Abdikarim is high school student from Kazakhstan.

Sources:

1. https://www.dw.com/ru/v-ssa-vstupili-v-silu-posliny-na-import-iz-kanady-i-meksiki/a-71818834

2. https://www.politico.eu/article/trump-threatens-eu-and-canada-with-more-tariffs-if-they-cooperate-against-the-u-s/

3. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-19/canada-seeks-defense-ties-and-deals-with-europe-as-us-pulls-back?leadSource=uverify wall

4. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5y41z4351qo.amp

5. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/07/world/canada/trump-trudeau-canada-51st-state.html