The Indian government's decision to abolish Articles 370 and 35A in August 2019 has been criticized for causing economic harm to Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK). The cancellation is estimated to have caused around $5 billion in damages and over 496,000 job losses, particularly in tourism, horticulture, and handicrafts markets. The repeal of Article 35A, which guaranteed local ownership and regional freedom, has led to over-militarization, blackouts, law restructuring, and economic strangulation, weakening the native economy and destabilizing the region.
The Indian government claims that the real estate market in Jammu and Kashmir has declined since the withdrawal of Article 370, with only 185 non-locals purchasing land between 2019 and 2022. This decline in the real estate market raises questions about the existence of IIOJK as an investment hub. Despite this, IIOJK has recorded better Human Development Indicators (HDIs) in literacy and life expectancy rates compared to most Indian states. The Gupkar Alliance's statement highlights the gap between political euphemisms and reality on the ground.
Since August 5, 2019, IIOJK has been under a communications blockade, curfew, and militarization, resulting in an economic loss of 2.4 billion US dollars. This has affected 90,000 jobs in areas like handicraft, tourism, and IT, which rely heavily on connectivity. The tourism industry lost 45% in revenue, and IT start-up firms were crippled. These changes have exacerbated socio-political alienation and financial hardship in the region.
The internet shutdown significantly impacted the horticulture industry in Kashmir, employing over 35 lakh Kashmiris and causing a loss of over 6500 crores in 2019. Farmers have had to sell produce at giveaway prices or watch it rot. Tourism, which previously contributed 7% to the region's GDP, has collapsed due to curfews and communication disruptions. The prolonged internet censorship has resulted in academic disadvantages for students.
The Jammu Chamber of Commerce and Industries (JCCI) reports that the region has been experiencing economic paralysis and a poor state of both urban and rural populations, following the revocation.
The Indian government's narrative on occupied Jammu and Kashmir highlights the reality of the situation, as seen when 6000 truckloads of apples were stranded on the Jammu-Srinagar national highway in September 2022, causing significant losses to the Kashmir horticulture industry, which relies on 70% of the population.
The region's heavily militarized and economically crippled state discourages industry development and makes life unsustainable for native Kashmiris, highlighting the emptiness of development rhetoric.
The apple industry, valued at 8,000 crore rupees, is a significant economic pillar in Jammu and Kashmir, supporting 3.5 million people and 8% of the country's GDP. However, political chaos and administrative disturbances since 2019 have severely impacted the industry. For example, in September 2022, 5,000 trucks loaded with apples were stranded on the Jammu-Srinagar National Highway, resulting in a loss of around 500 crores. Large-scale demonstrations and trade tensions have worsened the situation, questioning the legitimacy of the new post-Article 370 government.
The apple industry in Jammu and Kashmir, which generates 10,000-12000 crores annually, is facing significant challenges due to transportation issues. In September 2022, over 10,000 fruit-laden vehicles were stuck on the Srinagar-Jammu National Highway, leading to financial losses and fruit spoilage.
The Kashmir Valley Fruit Growers Association warns that the area's economic foundation will collapse without action. The region's three million and 522,000 people rely on apple production, and the Indian government's failure to provide a smooth passage further adds to the economic stranglehold in the IIOJK.
Kashmir is facing economic strangulation due to sector collapse, unemployment, and dwindling human development following Article 370's fall. India must demilitarize its economic policy, achieve institutional independence, and ensure unencumbered trade flows. Regeneration of trust and infrastructure is crucial for long-term growth and political stability in the region.
Abdul Mussawer Safi just got his degree from the National Defence University (NDU) in Islamabad. He has worked with think tanks like the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) in Islamabad, the Pak-Afghan Youth Forum (PAYF), and the South Asia Times (SAT)