Four years have passed since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war, with no clear path to resolution in the near term. Russia continues to advance at enormous human and material costs while Ukraine holds defensive lines despite ongoing Russian strikes. Both sides are digging in on demands neither party is willing to settle for. However, global shifts are tilting things in Ukraine’s favor.

Current status and presented terms

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) analysis confirms that Russia is advancing, although slowly, in eastern Ukraine, seizing 1,000-1,500 square kilometers around Donetsk’s Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka since April 2025. This advancement is outpacing Ukraine’s smaller counterattacks. CSIS also confirms that each kilometer seized is costing Moscow approximately 100-150 troops. Meanwhile, Ukraine is outperforming Russia in destroying tanks and artillery thanks to drones and missile strikes. Still, shortages of troops, delayed Western aid, and defensive strains have limited its ability to launch major counteroffensives.

President Vladimir Putin has reiterated demands that require Ukraine to surrender much of its territorial integrity. Ukraine must fully withdraw from and recognize Russian control over the annexed regions (Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson), President putin argues, and also recognize Crimea as sovereign Russian territory. It must abandon all aspirations to join NATO, commit to permanent neutrality, and to have no Western troops or bases on its soil. Putin also seeks strict limits on the number of troop in the future Ukrainian military in addition to an election on Moscow’s conditions.

On the other hand, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has outlined his position with similar demands. Ukraine seeks an immediate and unconditional NATO invitation to deter future Russian aggression. It demands complete withdrawal of Russian forces from all occupied territories, including Crimea, Donbas, and southern regions. Kyiv wants frozen Russian assets to fund recovery, sanctions lifted only after withdrawal, and deeper EU economic ties. Ukraine is also keen on the demilitarization of Russia’s border zones to prevent further attacks.

These demands are impossible to achieve because both sides refuse to budge and battlefield gains are favoring neither party. Yet emerging political shifts seem to benefit Ukraine’s position.

U.S. policy shift

Since assuming office, President Trump has adopted a stance that some might describe as “aggressive” toward Ukraine. He halted several arms deals, stifled aid packages and repeatedly labeled the conflict as “Biden’s war”. He criticized NATO and Europe’s modest support for Ukraine and publicly clashed with President Zelenskyy in the White House. Interestingly, President Trump  praised Putin’s leadership and believed that their “friendship” would facilitate peace.

This approach has shifted abruptly because of Putin’s ongoing stubbornness. The Wall Street Journal reports that U.S. intelligence agencies are now authorized to share targeting data with Kyiv for long-range strikes on Russian energy assets, such as refineries, pipelines, and power stations. This may extend to advanced munitions like enhanced ATACMS or Storm Shadow variants that will enable strikes deeper into Russia.

According to BBC reports, Ukraine's drone and missile attacks have already affected Russia's refining capacity this year. With U.S. Intel, Kyiv could boost this, which will spike Moscow's fuel costs and disrupt their military operations. This will undoubtedly force Russia to divert air defenses from the front lines and can buy Ukraine time for troop rotations.

U.S.-Turkey Energy Deal

Since the war began, Turkey has maintained a balanced position between the two parties. It assumed its NATO role by supporting Ukraine with drones but it also strengthened its ties with Russia and became a major buyer of Russian gas. This aligned with Ankara’s vision to become a gas hub in the region and profited from the competitive Russian gas prices due to the sanctions that limited Moscow's buyers.

On September 24, Turkey signed a gas deal with the United States to purchase 4 billion cubic meters annually through 2045, as reported by Reuters. This means that Russia will lose a critical gas revenue stream (billions in potential losses) and will put further strain on the crippled Russian economy. In quid pro quo whispers, this could greenlight joint operations between Ankara and Damascus against Syrian Kurdish forces (SDF). However, it may also open the door for increased Turkish arms sales to Ukraine. Turkish hardware will aid drone production for Ukraine and compensate for U.S. aid delays.

Trump and Xi Jinping meeting

President Trump and President Xi's recent call was deemed "productive" and both parties are to meet in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea during late October or early November 2025. China has signaled flexibility in an attempt to find a remedy to the trade war issues. According to Bloomberg, China offered investments worth $1 trillion to lift trade restrictions. Trump could leverage this to press for reduced exports of dual-use goods to Russia (e.g., machine tools, semiconductor chips).

If President Xi yields even modestly, Russia's artillery production will face further setbacks. This would not sever the Beijing-Moscow axis but it will force Russia to rely on limited North Korean and Iranian supplies.

Gaza war

Trump has recently presented a 20-point deal to end the conflict in Gaza. On October 3, Hamas has accepted to release all Israeli hostages. If the deal succeeds, it will signal a huge shift in U.S. policy. This would potentially lessen diplomacy demands on the State Department, and Trump could claim a "peace through strength" victory. With Gaza off the table, resources could be redirected towards more U.S. intelligence assets, diplomatic heft, and aid pipelines toward Kyiv.

Outlook

The Russia-Ukraine war drags on, but the tide is starting to turn for Kyiv. Trump’s new push with intel and weapons, Turkey ditching Russian gas, China easing up on Moscow’s supply line, and a Gaza deal freeing up U.S. focus could further strain Russia and simultaneously strengthen Ukraine’s leverage.

Nadhem Mahmoudi is a translator and interpreter with an MA in Translation and Interpreting, specializing in the linguistic impact of non-native English accents.