| Thu. December 26, 2024 | |
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The science of climate change is clear. Erath is engulfed in a climate emergency of historic proportions. Eight years after the landmark 2015 Paris climate agreement, no country is meeting the emissions cut goals needed to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5C. The World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO). in its latest global warming predictions of May 2023, marked a distressing moment for humanity. It warned that in the next five years, the world is likely to see an increase of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming over average pre-industrial levels for the first time. It further said that “While the weather events forecast by the United Nations’ weather body capture outlier spikes in temperatures, they serve as ominous portents of just how hard it will be for the world to achieve its hope of limiting the average temperature increase to 1.5C by 2100. Yet, the warning signs have been around for a while and have been mounting.” Many other international organizations would agree with the WMO's characterization of the seriousness of the climate emergency issue. Today, there is a significant amount of evidence indicating that there is a global climate emergency. Devastating wildfires ravaged Canada in June 2023, which “signal the onset of rising temperatures with deadly regularity. Meanwhile, cyclones like Biparjoy, which slammed into western India in mid-June, are wreaking havoc with increasing frequency”. Last year, the monsoons brought havoc in Pakistan as one-third of the country was flooded, impacting 33 million people, leading to 1,700 deaths, and the displacement of 8 million persons causing damages of $30 billion.[1] Coco Liu and Faseeh Mangi, in their excellent article “A $30 Billion Disaster Is Just the Tip of a Deadly Climate Cycle” published in Bloomberg on July 2, 2023, argued that:[2] Pakistan finds itself at the mercy of a pernicious pattern: Climate change is driving more intense rainfall, which drives more intense flooding, which stymies recovery from past floods. It’s a paradigm familiar to the other eight countries in what’s known as the Third Pole, which is facing the impacts of warmer air on both monsoons and melting mountain ice. Glaciers in Asia’s Hindu Kush Himalayan region could lose 80% of their current volume by the end of this century, according to a recent study, threatening the livelihoods of as many as 2 billion people downstream — roughly a quarter of the world’s population. Without effective mechanisms to finance their own recoveries, let alone prepare for future climate crises, developing nations are particularly unprepared…Many blame the lack of progress on a lack of funding. The World Bank estimates that Pakistan will need at least $16.3 billion for reconstruction and rehabilitation. Donors pledged $10 billion in relief at a UN conference in January, but it’s unclear how much of that money has been allocated. Out of 20 million Pakistanis in need, only 7.7 million have received disaster relief of some sort, according to UN data….World Weather Attribution, which researches the link between extreme weather and greenhouse gas pollution, found that climate change made rainfall in Pakistan 75% more intense last August than it would have been otherwise. Pakistan’s slow recovery is creating a vicious cycle. Crop shortages caused by the flooding drove up food prices, then the government raised taxes and energy prices in an attempt to meet the terms of a loan deal with the International Monetary Fund. That pushed up inflation, which hit 38% in May compared to a year earlier. Pakistanis started cutting back on spending, and job opportunities dried up. In June, the country secured initial IMF approval for a $3 billion loan program, lowering the risk of sovereign default but increasing pressure to maintain fiscal discipline….Now crop shortages linger, thousands remain homeless and the country is struggling with rebuilding, food supply, health care, and debt. Relief aid has largely dried up. As new rains threaten the same areas hit by last year’s floods, a changing climate makes rainfall and other extreme weather more intense, experts say Pakistan’s experience will be replicated elsewhere. Any country’s recovery efforts depend on how quickly and effectively authorities can marshal resources, allocate funds, and complete the work of rebuilding. That puts developing countries at a self-perpetuating disadvantage. Developing countries have been hard hit by the global climate emergency. The current global climate change situation spells disaster for many nations. A global specter of violence looms over the horizon because of the global climate crisis. The human cost of the global climate emergency is going to be astronomical. Stan Cox, in his excellent article “We’re having a violent meltdown: The human costs of global warming — and of our response to it,” published in the Salon on June 28, 2023, says that: [3] As the climate emergency intensifies, we may only find ourselves ever more affected by some of the indirect impacts of global warming. Those would include the widening of socioeconomic inequalities (within and between countries), increases in migration (intra- and inter-nationally), and heightened risk of conflict (from violence and war through to hate speech and crime). In other words, although weather disasters of many kinds can increase public concern about climate change, they can also help to whip up an oppressively violent sociopolitical climate that may prove ever more hostile to the very idea of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions — especially in large, affluent, high-emission societies….New climate realities are also expected to alter military conflicts among nations. One of the most troubling potential flashpoints could be the fast-melting Arctic, which, thanks to all that carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere, will soon be wide open for fishing, resource extraction, and other activities. The United States and Russia have not even let the Arctic Sea finish its thaw before starting to militarize it…. Nations are eyeing big military spending. Russia has already ramped up its military presence and the United States is playing catch-up…. As an armed standoff in cold polar waters heats up, increased attention is being paid to climate-induced mass migration as another conflict triggers. After all, forecasts now suggest that if greenhouse-gas emissions aren't reduced deeply and quickly, the climatic zones safe for humans to live in will shrink dramatically. The worst of it will happen in tropical South America and Africa, the Middle East, the South, and Southeast Asia, parts of China, and the U.S. Sun Belt. By 2050, two to three billion people are likely to either be living in or fleeing regions that have become increasingly hostile to human existence and, by 2090, it could be three to six billion of us, or a quarter to a third of humanity. Desired destinations will include the northern United States and southern Canada, Russia, Central Asia, Korea, Japan, northern China, and northern Europe…. Societies will be torn apart because of the global climate emergency…Climate disruption and anti-immigrant bias reinforce each other: As millions are driven from their homes by climate disasters, the extreme right exploits their misery to extend its reach. As the extreme right gains power, climate programs are shut down, heating accelerates, and more people are driven from their homes. If we don't break this cycle soon, it will become the dominant story of our times. It may already be the most important story, whether we realize it or not…Climate change is likely to exacerbate violence within countries as well. A 2015 analysis of 57 nations found that each degree Celsius increase in annual temperatures is associated with a nearly 6% average increase in homicides. More recently, a review of research worldwide found that climate disruption can undermine peace by interfering with people's mental or physiological functioning and by threatening our quality of life. Increasingly extreme heat will also push waves of human displacement within national borders, further fanning the flames of domestic conflict… As the Earth's atmosphere warms, almost half of America’s population will most likely experience a decline in the quality of their environment, namely more heat and less water. For 93 million of them, the changes could be particularly severe. Expect many millions of us to move from the Sunbelt to the Great Lakes region and from rural to urban areas…In short, industrial civilization has by now painted the world into a perilous corner. The only way out of this mess would be for affluent societies to deeply reduce their consumption of energy and extraction of material resources but do not hold your breath on that one. Earth faces a real danger, unlike anything experienced before, because of the global climate emergency. The apathy of the world’s leaders and even the public is astounding, to say the least. It is having an undesirable effect on our modern societies, though. We are ignoring the wake-up calls received lately: the devastating floods in Pakistan last year, the very recent Canadian wildfires, the earlier Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy, the East Coast heat waves and West Coast wildfires of more recent years; the shocking overheating of global waters and the resulting sea level rise, and finally the possible disappearance of smallest island nations in the Pacific and Indian oceans. Governments are failing to tackle climate disasters by taking bold action. This grand failure may now be pushing societies toward increasing violence. It is not all despair yet. There is still hope, as many countries are doing better than the rest in trying to mitigate the worst effects of climate change.[4] Most importantly, world leadership is finally awakened to the perils of inaction on the global climate emergency. Very recently, a climate summit was held in Paris on June 22-23, with the grand aim of establishing a framework of principles for a New Global Financial Pact to help poor countries access vitally needed climate and development funding. Also, it aimed to overhaul the global banking and aid system that has kept developing countries from eliminating poverty or from constructing any environmental resilience.[5] More than 100 world leaders attended the summit. But only two top leaders from the Group of Seven most developed countries, Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, were present. The U.S. was represented by Yellen and climate envoy John Kerry. Other attendees included China’s Prime Minister Li Qiang, World Bank head Ajay Banga and IMF President Kristalina Georgieva. The gathering had no mandate to make formal decisions, but Macron had pledged to deliver a to-do list that would be accompanied by a progress-tracking tool. A 15-page document released soon after the summit ended relied heavily on calls for action by groups like the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and others, such as changing the way risk is calculated on projects in the developing world and financing projects with local currency. Both moves could reduce borrowing costs that are typically much higher for low-income nations that often face massive challenges in adapting to climate change at the same time they are confronted by poverty and myriad other issues.[6] Yellen told the summit that Washington would use the moment to push for creditors to grant relief and restructure the debts of developing countries. And the World Bank announced plans for “pause clauses” for countries hit by disasters. Barbados premier Motley warned that the world was “running out of time” to help poor countries prepare for the climate crisis, and is leading the fight to find solutions.[7] Motley has long spoken out about the inequities of global wealth and power, reflected in the way UN climate change negotiations are undertaken having slight consideration for the poorest countries.[8] Earlier, at COP26 in Glasgow in 2021, she criticized rich nations for “failing to curb the catastrophic effects of climate change sooner and faster,” and also argued that “a country’s per capita income is not always the best measure of its wealth”. The challenge is huge. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said more than 50 countries are now either in or on the verge of debt default and several of which are also especially susceptible to climate impacts. Today, several African nations are spending more money on their debt repayments than on their healthcare.[9] To the credit of President Macron, the summit discussed several issues thoroughly. As expected, there were many disagreements. Global taxes posed a problem for the US. John Kerry, the special envoy for the climate to the US President, Joe Biden, said the US did not have any position on taxes on shipping, aviation, or fossil fuels. For the US, the problem is that China is not being asked to contribute, along with it, to any loss and damage fund proposal. “I support some kind of revenue raising on a broad basis, but this is not administration policy I have supported pricing carbon, but I am not advocating a tax or a fee or anything at this point. Certainly, the administration is not, but we must find a way to find more concessionary funding…You have to look at this [fund] and say what’s fair, what makes sense. And people are going to ask themselves all around the world: ‘Do you think that the second largest economy in the world ought to put something into it?’ I cannot imagine people who say no, which doesn’t make sense. So that is the kind of thing at which we must work. It is the kind of thing we have to discuss.”[10] Meanwhile, the idea of a global tax on the greenhouse gas emissions produced from international shipping gained support and could potentially be adopted at a July meeting of the International Maritime Organization, the United Nations agency regulating shipping. The money could be directed toward developing countries to help them deal with climate change. Some experts believe that a tax on shipping alone could raise $100 billion a year.[11] “This is a tax-free sector. “And there is no reason it is not taxed,” Macron said. But the French president, who hosted the summit, suggested that China and the U.S. were not supporting the idea. “If China and the U.S. and several key European countries are not on board, then you would put a tax in place that would not have any impact,” he added. Some 23 nations, which were not identified in the official statement, backed the initiative.[12] Shipping accounts for almost 3% of greenhouse gas emissions, according to the International Maritime Organization. A European Parliament report has warned that the share could increase dramatically by 2050. As expected, climate activists demanded polluters pay for climate damage.[13] The air passenger levy was also discussed, and there was a proposal of five euros per passenger for all passengers. Such an air passenger levy has already existed in France for 10 years, and it raises 200 million euros a year, which is donated to the global health fund. Such an air passenger levy could be applied unilaterally by other European governments across the EU. If the EU were to apply such a levy, it would raise over one billion euros a year.[14] What was the outcome of the meeting? As expected, NGOs and climate activists noted some positive outcomes from the summit, yet said it does not go far enough.[15] Alex Scott of the E3G think tank said the roadmap concretely sets actions that nations must take and has needed ideas. [16] There were some positive specific outcomes.
The World Bank announced a plan to provide a pause in debt repayments for the most vulnerable countries when they are hit by a crisis or catastrophe. The International Monetary Fund has made $100 billion available to certain vulnerable countries. The French government said it would share 40% of its assets from the Covid-19 pandemic. Debt-burdened Zambia reached a deal with several creditors, including China to restructure $6.3 billion in loans. Also, Senegal reached a deal with the European Union and other Western countries to support its efforts to improve access to energy and increase its share of renewable energy to 40% by 2030.[19] . Formulation of a roadmap setting out numerous proposals for delivery up to September 2024, future G20 summits, the World Bank, and International Monetary Fund annual meetings in October, Cop28 and other international meetings, up to the Summit for the Future to be held next September.[20] Failures
These failures disappointed climate NGOs and activists who lamented the lack of ambitious responses to fight climate change and the world’s inequalities brought forward at the meeting.[22] What are the Next Steps to meet the Global Climate Emergency challenge? The first is to realize why it happened in the first place. The global climate emergency confronting us now did not happen overnight. It took at least two centuries to unfold. These are the centuries that brought immense wealth and economic development to humanity because of the capitalist economic paradigm. Capitalism triumphs as a result and there is no serious alternative to it now. Socialism is a major political issue today. Given the global climate emergency, a civilizational paradigm shift is called for. The global capitalism paradigm has failed to create sustainable development protecting the environment simply because its focus is on economic growth. The whole academic literature, politics, and the global media are obsessed with economic growth and increasing it. Politicians promise to deliver it only because the people demand nothing else but economic growth as such. Notwithstanding the havoc on the global environment and now the global climate emergency, there is little debate on changing the fundamental intellectual paradigm underpinning the global structures creating the crisis. The extremely basic capitalist economic development framework mostly remains unchallenged. Only the tiny minority center-Left challenges capitalism as such. This voice is being ignored by the powerful global ruling establishments. The question is: whether we can invent another global economic system to replace the current one. There is scant evidence that this can happen as there is little attention to the inadequacies of the global capitalist system itself. The real problem is the obsession with short-termism, a function of democratic politics and the corporate profit requirements in vogue. There is a serious lack of long-range planning to tackle a global issue like the climate emergency. In other words, the institutional framework is not there to address the current challenge of the global climate emergency. How can we then transform the global economy or the global financial system? Nonetheless, powerful voices are now speaking up to address the issue. What is needed is not reform but a very transformation of global financial institutions, as correctly demanded by Motley in the very recent Paris Summit meeting. Earlier in 2023, she unveiled “a detailed proposal on how to fix the global financial system to help developing countries invest in clean energy and boost resilience to climate impacts.”[23] Her plan has the backing of key Western leaders’ demands for an overhaul of the so-called Bretton Woods institutions. She correctly argues that these institutions “still reflect the political and economic power dynamics of that time – even though more than three-quarters of today’s countries were not present at the time of their creation. [24] Motley has already generated widespread support for the Bridgetown Initiative; her plan launched in the Barbados capital last year to provide liquidity support, debt restructuring, $100bn a year in private capital, and an extra $100bn a year in development loans.[25] There needs to be comprehensive documentation of success stories. While most developed countries are falling far behind their climate pledges, some developing nations are undertaking bold actions to fight the global climate emergency. The tragedy is that though it is not their making, these developing countries mostly suffer the hardest from the consequences. Therefore, the global climate emergency has also become a justice issue. Some remarkable achievements have been made in several developing countries to tackle the climate emergency. They are employing solar power and innovating in the field of agriculture, among other achievements. However, there are limitations to their successes without the Global North truly contributing to the global cause.[26] Gambia is one such success story. It has combatted the most devastating effects of the global climate emergency. A series of climate-driven local movements across the country have collectively turned Gambia into a model in the global climate emergency movement. It is the only country that is on track to meet its Paris climate change commitments. It is appalling that collectively the world leadership is failing to grasp the true nature of the global climate emergency. Or they are not convinced it is real enough. Their smug attitude suggests this to be a fact. Therefore, the first issue is to prove the science of the Global Climate Emergency. Dr. Sohail Mahmood is an Independent Political Analyst based in Chapel Hill NC
[1] Coco Liu and Faseeh Mangi in their article “A $30 Billion Disaster Is Just the Tip of a Deadly Climate Cycle” published in Bloomberg on July 2, 2023, Pakistan Braces for Heavy Rains, Floods After $30 Billion Climate Disaster - Bloomberg [2] Ibid [3] STAN COX,We’re having a violent meltdown: The human costs of global warming — and of our response to it, June 28, 2023, [4] Catherine Gilon, “The planet’s burning. Can the Global South save it?”. Al Jazeera, June 27, 2023, The planet’s burning. Can the Global South save it? | Features | Al Jazeera [5] Emma Reynolds, “Barbados PM Mia Motley calls for ‘absolute transformation’ as she fights to make Paris climate summit matter”, The I, June 22, 2023Barbados PM Mia Motley calls for ‘absolute transformation’ as she fights to make Paris climate summit matter (msn.com) [6] Paris climate summit ends without deal on global shipping tax. Associated Press//June 26, 2023 Paris climate summit ends without deal on global shipping tax | The Journal Record [7] Barbados PM Mia Motley calls for ‘absolute transformation’ as she fights to make Paris climate summit matter (msn.com) [8] Emma Reynolds, “Barbados PM Mia Motley calls for ‘absolute transformation’ as she fights to make Paris climate summit matter”, The I, June 22, 2023Barbados PM Mia Motley calls for ‘absolute transformation’ as she fights to make Paris climate summit matter (msn.com) [9] Emma Reynolds, “Barbados PM Mia Motley calls for ‘absolute transformation’ as she fights to make Paris climate summit matter”, The I, June 22, 2023Barbados PM Mia Motley calls for ‘absolute transformation’ as she fights to make Paris climate summit matter (msn.com) [10] Fiona Harvey, “Governments at Paris summit to finalize climate finance roadmap”, June 23, 2023 Governments at Paris summit to finalize climate finance roadmap | Climate crisis | The Guardian [11] Paris climate summit ends without deal on global shipping tax. Associated Press//June 26, 2023 Paris climate summit ends without deal on global shipping tax | The Journal Record [12] Paris climate summit ends without deal on global shipping tax. Associated Press//June 26, 2023 Paris climate summit ends without deal on global shipping tax | The Journal Record [13] Emma Reynolds, “Barbados PM Mia Motley calls for ‘absolute transformation’ as she fights to make Paris climate summit matter”, The I, June 22, 2023Barbados PM Mia Motley calls for ‘absolute transformation’ as she fights to make Paris climate summit matter (msn.com) [14] Saleema Huq, “ Key Takeaways from the Paris Summit on Climate Finance”, The Daily Star, Jun 27, 2023, Key takeaways from the Paris summit on climate finance |The Daily Star | undefined [15] Paris climate summit ends without deal on global shipping tax. Associated Press//June 26, 2023 Paris climate summit ends without deal on global shipping tax | The Journal Record [16] Fiona Harvey, “Governments at Paris summit to finalize climate finance roadmap”, June 23, 2023 Governments at Paris summit to finalize climate finance roadmap | Climate crisis | The Guardian [17] Coco Liu and Faseeh Mangi in their article “A $30 Billion Disaster Is Just the Tip of a Deadly Climate Cycle” published in Bloomberg on July 2, 2023, Pakistan Braces for Heavy Rains, Floods After $30 Billion Climate Disaster - Bloomberg [18] Ibid [19] Paris<
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