West Africa consists of fifteen countries (Burkina Faso, Benin, Cape Verde, Cote d’Ivoire, Guinea Bissau, Ghana, Guinea, Gambia, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo) that come together in a political grouping called the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Of these countries, nine are former French colonies, four  are ex-British colonies, two are ex-Portuguese colonies, and Liberia, the oldest republic in Africa, was founded by freed slaves from the United States of America in the 1800s.

The French have always held its ex-colonies with an iron grip in terms of their political and economic dealings. An example has been the refusal of France to allow these countries even have their own national currencies. French companies predominate in these countries because they are given contracts even though the deals are mostly one sided in favor of France.

In the past few years, there has been a rise in anti-French sentiments in their ex-colonies. This is mostly among young people who feel like their countries have been exploited by France far too long, that it’s time for change, and they should break away, even if it means replacing democratically elected governments with populist military regimes. This is the primary reason for the high number of recent coups in Francophone West Africa.

Since 2020, there have been coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and, most recently, the Republic of the Niger. In Niger, ECOWAS decided to take a hardline by threatening to go to war to reinstate the overthrown civilian government. This has led to fears of further instability in an unstable region.

The truth is there will be no military intervention by ECOWAS in Niger for several reasons:

Lack of support

Most people in the Republic of the Niger and other ECOWAS member states are firmly against any military solution to the crisis there. This is because these neighboring countries share cultural and religious links with those of Niger. The same people/families live on either side of the border, so they see escalation of the crisis as going to war with their brethren.

Due to lack of popular support from a majority of the people, politicians will have no other choice but to listen to them.  This especially difficult as they also face various domestic economic and security challenges in their respective countries.

The Libya Lesson

The memory of NATO intervention in Libya is still fresh in the minds of West Africans. It led to the rise of instability there when arms proliferated after the fall of the Ghaddafi regime. Over a decade later, the effects are still being felt with the rise of various armed conflicts in various countries across the region. With the legacy of Libya in mind, West Africans are not keen about going to war in the name of reinstalling a democratic government.

Burkina Faso and Mali Factor

The recent alliance between Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger states that an attack on one country is an attack on all. In case of an attack, they will therefore defend each other militarily. As these countries share borders with almost all members of ECOWAS, conflict with any of the three would equate to a war touching almost all countries in West Africa

While the likelihood of a military conflict is highly unlikely, this should be a wake-up call for leaders in the region and their allies across the world to take action and prevent more coups. As such, West African leaders should start delivering the benefits of democracy to their people. Failing to do this will only lead to more agitation by their people, especially the young people who, by far, comprise most of the population and create opportunities for populist military leaders to take over.

The Global North can also help prevent coups from happening by holding their allies responsible for good governance and delivering dividends of democracy in the form of development. Finally, for the ex-colonial masters to deal with their ex-colonies in a more equitable and fair manner in all dealings. This is all in collective interest of the Global North, as can be seen with the rise of irregular migration to Europe and beyond.

Oumar Fofana is a treelance writer for IA-Forum.