In late September 2023, President Paul Kagame of Rwanda declared his intention to run again in 2024 for a fourth term. During the last election in 2019, he “won” with almost 99% of the votes. He has been in charge of Rwanda in one way or the other for close to 30 years now, so one would ask if his continued stay in power is good for the long-term stability of Rwanda and the region at large? Or it is built on an unstable foundation?

The Rwanda of 1994 immediately after the genocide is quite different from the Rwanda of today in basically every aspect of development. A lot of progress has been made and Rwanda is seen as one of the rare success cases in a troubled part of the African continent.

Paul Kagame has been able to improve Rwanda in every metric of development, but this has come at a cost in the form of brutally crushing any internal opposition and fomenting instability in neighboring states, especially in the eastern Congo to exploit their natural resources.

While Mister Kagame has accomplished a lot for Rwanda, he fails to take into consideration the limitations and dangers of basing the fate of an entire nation to just one man. Like President Obama said years ago, Africa needs strong institutions and not strong men. This is a classic case of that situation.

15% vs 85%

President Paul Kagame and a small circle of people mostly from his Tutsi ethnic group (15% of the population) have the final say on all decisions that are made in Rwanda. However, Rwanda is a country that is made up of 85% Hutu. As far back as the colonial period, policies were made that have made the Hutu majority feel like they have always been marginalized, and the almost thirty years reign of President Kagame has only reinforced that feeling.

For the long-term stability and continuous progress of Rwanda, even after President Kagame is no longer in power, a system must be implemented for equitable power distribution and at the same time protect the rights of the Tutsi minority from being victimized when eventually power changes hands.

Rwanda must prevent similar civil unrest that Ethiopia is currently undergoing because of twenty years of failures of the previous Tigray-dominated government of the late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. While he was in power, the Tigray ethnic group, about ten percent of Ethiopia’s one hundred million plus population dominated almost all levers of power. President Kagame can use that as a case study to make corrections so that all his achievements, his legacy, and the future of his dear Rwanda can be much more secure.

The Congo factor

It is an open secret that Rwanda and other neighbors of the Democratic Republic of Congo (D.R.C.) have been benefiting from the instability going on in that country by exploiting the vast mineral resources that are present there. Because of this, there is large resentment and hatred towards Rwanda by the vast majority of the Congolese people. An unwelcome scenario would be instability in Rwanda, where the Congolese would try to get back at them. This would lead to tarnishing or possible destruction of all the progress that President Paul Kagame has worked so hard to accomplish in Rwanda.

Solution

Internal and external factors have the potential to undo all the progress that Rwanda has made since the 1994 genocide. The long-term future of Rwanda depends very much on the policies and actions that President Paul Kagame choses to implement.

In the domestic arena, he needs to be willing to loosen his grip on power and include the Hutu majority in decision-making on the future of the country. By doing so, they will feel like they have a vested interest in the long-term stability and development of Rwanda. Failing to do this risk creating future instability.

Regarding the neighbors of Rwanda, especially the D.R.C., the Rwandan government will have to engage with their authorities as well as other regional bodies. This serve to promote stability in eastern D.R.C. and this will be a path of ensuring the long-term stability of Rwanda. At the same time, they can continue to benefit from the resources of the D.R.C., but this time in collaboration with the Congolese government and people.

President Paul Kagame is at a point where he can decide if he wants a Rwanda that will continue with its impressive developmental strides in stability, security, and equity amongst its people and neighbors long after he is no longer in power or leave behind a country that is at risk of collapse due to internal or external factors.   

Oumar Fofana is a treelance writer for IA-Forum.