Pakistan is heading towards a crucial general election in February, amid political turmoil, economic instability, and security threats that have shaken the country’s fragile democracy. The election, which was delayed by six months due to a dispute over the results of the 2023 digital census, will be the first since the ouster of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, a former cricket star who rose to power in 2018 on a populist anti-corruption platform and was removed by a parliamentary vote of no confidence in April last year.

The election will be held under a caretaker government, led by Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar, a former senator and journalist, who was appointed by President Arif Alvi in August after the dissolution of the parliament.

The caretaker government’s main mandate is to ensure the holding of a free, fair and transparent election, in coordination with the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), an independent constitutional body that oversees the electoral process.

However, the ECP has also faced criticism and controversy over its role and performance, especially after the delay in the announcement of the election date, which was finally agreed upon on November 2, following consultations with the president and the Supreme Court.

The election will be held under a mixed electoral system, in which 272 members of the National Assembly, the lower house of the parliament, will be elected by direct vote in single-member constituencies, while the remaining 64 seats, reserved for women and religious minorities, will be allocated to the parties according to their proportional representation.

The election will also be held simultaneously for the four provincial assemblies, which have a total of 728 seats, of which 577 are general, 131 are reserved for women and 20 are reserved for non-Muslims.

The party or coalition that wins the majority of the seats in the National Assembly will form the federal government and appoint the prime minister, while the parties or coalitions that win the majority of the seats in the provincial assemblies will form the provincial governments and appoint the chief ministers.

The election is expected to be a close and competitive contest, with no clear winner or loser. According to the latest opinion polls, the PTI, the PML-N and the PPP are neck and neck in terms of popular support, with each having around 30 per cent of the vote share.

The opposition has formed an alliance called the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), to challenge Mr. Khan’s party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), in the upcoming polls. The PTI, on the other hand, has accused the PDM of being a coalition of corrupt and dynastic politicians, who have looted the country’s resources and failed to deliver on their promises. It has also highlighted its achievements in the fields of environmental protection, social welfare, poverty alleviation and anti-terrorism.

The PTI has also claimed to have the support of the military, which is widely seen as the most powerful institution in the country and the ultimate arbiter of its politics. The military, however, has officially maintained its neutrality and expressed its commitment to ensuring a free, fair and peaceful election.

The upcoming elections have many challenges before providing a stable ground for the winning party to perform at par.

The election campaign has also been overshadowed by the security situation in the country, which has deteriorated in recent months due to the resurgence of the Pakistan Taliban, a militant group that has waged a bloody insurgency against the state since 2007. The group has also threatened to disrupt the election process and target the candidates and voters of the parties that it considers to be “secular” and “pro-American”, such as the PTI, the PML-N and the PPP.

However, the outcome will depend on several factors, such as the turnout, the swing votes, the alliances, the defections, the spoilers, the independents, the spoilers and the post-election negotiations.

The election will also have significant implications for the future of Pakistan’s democracy, stability and development, as well as its relations with the region and the world, especially at a time when the country is facing multiple challenges and opportunities, both internally and externally.

The election is a historic opportunity for Pakistan to achieve political stability and continuity, which have been elusive in its 74 years of existence. Pakistan has never seen two consecutive civilian governments complete their full five-year terms, as they have been either overthrown by the military or dismissed by the president or the courts. The election is also seen as a test for the country’s democracy, which has been struggling to survive and thrive amid the pressures and challenges of the 21st century.

The election is also seen as a chance for the people of Pakistan to exercise their right to vote and have a say in the future of their country, which has been shaped by the decisions and actions of the elites and the institutions. The election is also seen as a way for the people of Pakistan to express their hopes and aspirations for a better and brighter tomorrow.

Iqra Awan is a Research Fellow at Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad and can be reached at iqraawann18@gmail.com