| Sat. December 21, 2024 | |
|
|
|
Abstract The ongoing phenomenon of the melting Arctic region constitutes a sign of prospective geo-political development, not solely for major powers such as the United States, China, and Russia but also regional and non-Arctic states. The Arctic holds strategic significance because of its capacity to furnish energy resources and natural reserves while concurrently establishing new trade routes as alternatives to conventional sea routes in international commerce. This has consequential implications for mitigating vulnerabilities associated with chokepoints like the Suez Canal and the Strait of Malacca. Given its potential to offer new trade routes and abundant energy and natural resources, the geo-economic dynamics of the Arctic region play a pivotal role in shaping the future global order, influencing great power politics, and fostering competition. This article concentrates on delineating the role played by Russia and its interest in the Arctic region, which assumes a paramount role as the principal player in the emerging geopolitics of the Arctic region. Introduction The Arctic region, situated at the northernmost part of the Earth in the southern latitude of the northern hemisphere, has been shielded from conflicts and international politics for centuries due to its extreme cold and frozen environment. It remains untouched and isolated, harboring vast natural resources such as oil, gas, and minerals. According to a US geological survey, the Arctic region holds about 13% of the world's oil (90 billion barrels) and 30% of undiscovered gas. It also provides a short and cost-effective trade route, especially through Arctic international airspace, facilitating international travel and trade. However, the Arctic is undergoing unprecedented changes, with a 70% reduction in ice thickness since 1979, as per satellite observations. This environmental shift poses both climatic and economic challenges and opportunities for Arctic and non-Arctic states. All eight Arctic states, including Russia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the United States, are engaged in extracting oil and gas from the region, supplying a significant portion of global resources. The melting ice has led to the opening of new trade routes like the Northwest Sea Route (NWR), Northern Sea Route (NSR), and Transpolar Sea Route (TSR), offering shorter paths than traditional routes. These Arctic sea routes are viewed as complementary rather than substitutes for existing trade routes. China, as an emerging superpower heavily dependent on foreign trade, aims to utilize Arctic sea routes to diversify its sea lane portfolio. Russia’s Historical and Current Activities in the Arctic Russia has been using its northern sea route for navigation as well as for exploration of natural resources since the era of the Soviet Union. Russia has the largest fleet of icebreakers, i.e., 40, and most of them were built during the Soviet Union. The USSR invested in icebreaker technology to keep the Northern Sea Route navigable. The Soviets established a northern fleet, which included nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, which was used as a deterrent against the US during the Cold War Era. The reason behind Soviet enhanced investments in Arctic technology in terms of military hard power is due to its ambition to project its power into other regions, primarily the Barents Sea and North Atlantic, to counter the US and NATO. Russia’s Arctic strategy 2020 is focused on operationalizing the Northern Sea Route by 2035, which has been opening due to ice melting. Russia’s focus on the Arctic is predominantly driven by its interests in the energy sector and military, along with potential environmental threats to the region. In recent decades, Russia has focused on enhancing its military presence in the Arctic region, primarily driven by its interest in having a second strike capability of ballistic missile submarines against NATO and maintaining parity with potential threats from the US and NATO. Active military presence also provides the Russian Northern Fleet with access to the Barents Sea, the Norwegian Sea, and the North Atlantic, which would be lucrative for Russia in case of any conflict with NATO and the US. Russia is opening its military base and advancing its airfield and radar stations on the Arctic side. Russia also established Joint Strategic Command North (JSC North) in December 2014 to unify the command and control of various military arms and branches in the Arctic region. Russia’s Economic and Military Interest in the Arctic Region As per Russia’s strategic military and naval documents, Russian interests concerning the Arctic are diverse, from the state’s security and national interests to potential environmental threats. Russian enhanced military buildup in the Arctic is to protect its longest coastline from the emerging challenges related to the growth of shipping in the Northern Sea Route, which would soon open up due to the warming of the Arctic region. Russian military and Marine doctrines and its National Security Strategy show special concerns about US and NATO activities as threats to Russian interests and highlight its military buildup, especially the northern fleet, as a balancer against the US and NATO in the Arctic as well as in the North Atlantic. The second reason behind the military buildup is to maintain strategic parity between the US and NATO and to achieve the second-strike capability of its ballistic missile submarine. Military buildup also advances Russian interest in having active access to the North Atlantic and European Arctic in case of conflict with NATO. Russia announced a special economic zone on the Arctic coastline in 2019 and offered a tax incentive of 41 billion dollars for investment in the sectors of oil and gas. Military advancement would secure Russian economic development, infrastructure, and investment in the Arctic region. The Arctic region is of great importance to Russia, especially in terms of economy. Sparsely populated areas of the Russian Arctic account for 10 percent of Russian gross domestic products and 22 percent of its exports. 10 percent of Russia’s total investment is in the Arctic area. The Russian Arctic strategy is mainly focused on consolidating its economic security related to the Arctic. Food and other resources are also another element of Russian economic interest in the Arctic. About one-third of arctic fisheries come from the Arctic ocean, and by 2030, Russia is focused on increasing this number, especially because of the movement of fisheries towards the Russian coastline due to arctic melting ice. For the materialization of these economic opportunities, Russia by 2035, as per the Arctic Strategy 2020, will need to build infrastructure, roads, railways, safety and emergency mechanisms in case of natural accidents, weather stations, airports, etc. Russia would build four airports, modernize preexisting railways and roads, and develop 40 Arctic cruise ships by 2035. The Russian Arctic Strategy 2020 highlights the importance of the Russian Northern Coastline and the functionalization of the Northern Sea Route by 2035 for Europe-Asia trade passage by expanding its icebreaking capability. Challenges for Russia The unprecedented changes in the Arctic's physical, political, and economic realities would carry a wide range of challenges for regional Arctic states, from traditional security threats to non-traditional security; environmental security, security dilemmas between neigboring Arctic states, food, marine, and bioecosystem. Russia shares the largest coastline with the Arctic Ocean, and therefore, Russian economic interests are far greater than those of other arctic states. Russia’s arctic side region is a sparsely populated area, and extreme weather conditions create a great deal of challenges for Russia’s envisioned plans for the Arctic in 2035. From the perspective of traditional security challenges, since 2011, the enhanced military buildup of Russia and modernization of its northern fleet on the Arctic coastline, especially in the Kola Peninsula, have raised security concerns among other neighboring arctic states. The Russian submarine exercises along the northern border create security concerns among the other Arctic states, like Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Thus, it creates a security dilemma in the Arctic region. The chances of arms races among the Arctic states would be enhanced, and the same would be the case with economic security. The advanced military presence on the northern coast would enhance Russian influence in the Barents Sea, the Norwegian Sea, and the North Atlantic as well, which would pose a security threat not only to neighboring Arctic states but also to other European states as well. From an environmental non-traditional security perspective, the fast-melting Arctic ice would disrupt the food chain and enhance Russia’s oil and gas investment, like the Yamal Gas Project, which would further increase the melting process. Opening the Northern Sea Route is an important plan of Russia related to the Arctic, and for that, Russia has to make investments and attract global investors to modernize the port facilities in that region and install safety and emergency response mechanisms in the Arctic region. The oil and gas project would enhance the risk of pollution from oil spills, which would affect the marine ecosystem as well as the wildlife and livelihood of local communities. New oil and gas resources providing secure and cheap prices in the near vicinity of global energy-consuming states would create a challenge for Russian aspirations of dominance in the oil and gas economy. Another challenge concerning NSR is the fact that there is expensive insurance for maritime operations for polar water vessels because of ice-breaking support. Only 62 out of 331 vessels in 2020 completed their voyage through the Northern Sea Route. The emerging Arctic geo-economics and challenges for Russia are at various security dimensions, from traditional security dimensions of a military arms race and economic security to non-traditional environmental security and disturbance in marine and biodiversity ecosystems, which would affect not only the indigenous peoples of the Arctic in Russia but also the Arctic and non-Arctic states as well. Opportunities for Russia Russia has opportunities related to the economy, military, diplomacy, and influence over regional and extra-regional organizations. Emerging geo-economics is primarily driven by the fast pace of unpredicted changes in the physical and environmental dimensions of the Arctic region. Operationalization of the Northern Sea Route, in a way that Russia has envisioned, would enhance the importance of Russia, particularly because three trade routes in the Arctic, the NSR is the most feasible one compared to the others. Because of the presence of archipelagoes in the NWP, navigation of large trade vessels is not lucrative, and the Trans Polar Route may take a century to become navigable for international trade. Many parts of the NSR are passing through the inland waters of Russia, which would give Russia an absolute advantage over global trade, especially between Europe and Asia. To cater to the challenges related to environmental and resource parity issues, the Arctic Council plays a key role by legally binding the Arctic states in various cooperations and agreements, particularly in search and rescue, scientific research and cooperation, and oil spill prevention and management. The Arctic Council is the important intergovernmental organiz ation of the arctic region, having all eight arctic states plus indigenous people representatives and observer states like China. Being a member of the Arctic Council, Russia has the opportunity to counter the environmental issue by cooperating on collective mechanisms. The military buildup of Russia in the NSR would provide Russia with a sphere of influence in the political and economic dimensions of the Arctic region, i.e., the Barents Sea and the Norwegian Sea, and it would also be part of power projection in other regions, from the North Atlantic to Bering Straits as well. The Northern Fleet in the NSR will create a rule-based order in the Arctic region, which would favor Russian interest in the Arctic in the sense that it would foster the process of opening the NSR. In particular, military buildup, providing a secure route to Russian oil and also advancing the ambition of establishing centers for infrastructure related to scientific research, railways, roads, radar stations, etc. Another opportunity for Russia related to the emerging geo-economics of the Arctic is that Russia is the signatory and rectifier of the Convention on Law of the Sea, which gives coastal states a right to exclusive economic zones and the right to explore beyond the EEZ if coastal states submit enough evidence of the extension of their continental shelf. Russia submitted its claim in 2015 to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) to explore and exploit the vast offshore seabed resources of the Arctic region. To materialize the Arctic economic potential, Russia is using non-fiscal policies in the Arctic region to facilitate investment, advancement, and technology upgrades in the region. Russia has incentivized Rosneft, a public joint-stock oil company, to develop the Vostok oil field for 30 years. Conclusion and a Way Forward The changing dynamics of the Arctic, marked by the melting of ice, have ushered in a new era with profound geopolitical and economic implications for global players, including Russia. This polar region, once shrouded in conflicts and isolation due to its extreme conditions, is now gaining attention for its potential in energy resources, natural wealth, and the creation of alternative trade routes. Central to this transformation is Russia, which is facing a nuanced landscape of challenges and opportunities. Russia grapples with significant challenges as it navigates the evolving Arctic scenario. The heightened military presence on the Kola Peninsula raises concerns among neighboring Arctic states, potentially triggering an arms race. Environmental risks loom large as melting ice disrupts ecosystems and amplifies the dangers of oil spills, particularly with increased Russian investments in oil and gas. The vastness and harsh conditions of the Arctic present economic and infrastructural challenges, necessitating substantial investments in modernization and emergency preparedness. The viability of the Northern Sea Route (NSR), a cornerstone of Russia's Arctic strategy, is questioned due to the expensive insurance costs associated with polar vessels requiring ice-breaking support. However, within these challenges lie significant opportunities for Russia. The operationalization of the NSR promises economic advantages, particularly in Europe-Asia trade passages. Russia's military buildup along the NSR enhances its influence, establishing a rule-based order that aligns with its interests. Diplomatically, Russia's membership in the Arctic Council offers a collaborative platform to address environmental concerns with other Arctic states and observer nations like China. Adherence to the Convention on the Law of the Sea provides Russia with exclusive economic zone rights, allowing exploration of offshore seabed resources. Non-fiscal policies, including tax incentives, further foster investment and technological advancements, positioning Russia as a key player in shaping the Arctic's evolving geopolitical landscape. To effectively navigate the changing Arctic dynamics, Russia must adopt a comprehensive strategy addressing both environmental and traditional security challenges. Collaborative efforts within the Arctic Council and with observer states are crucial for strengthening environmental regulations, implementing sustainable practices, and mitigating the impact of increased human activity on the Arctic ecosystem. Simultaneously, diplomatic engagement is essential to prevent security tensions in the region, with multilateral dialogues and joint military exercises fostering transparency, trust, and conflict resolution. Strategic investments in infrastructure and emergency response capabilities are integral components of this approach, ensuring robust mechanisms for handling environmental emergencies like oil spills and enhancing the resilience of Arctic communities. Through these measures, Russia can play a pivotal role in shaping a secure, sustainable future for the Arctic. Imtiaz Ahmad is a student of BS International Relations in NUML References
|
|
| Contact Us | About Us | Donate | Terms & Conditions |
|
All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2002 - 2024