On January 16, 2024, Iran targeted the Iranian Baloch militant group Jaish ul-Adl when it launched a series of missile and drone strikes inside Pakistan’s Baluchistan province, which the Islamic State claimed responsibility for. Iran had carried out a similar series of aerial and drone strikes within Iraq and Syria. To the heart of this conflict is the region of Baluchistan, where Pakistan and Iran share a border of 900 km (aka, The Goldsmith Line) that runs from Afghanistan to the Arabian Sea. Baluchistan is a treasure of natural resources, from gas to minerals and strategic coastlines along the Arabian Sea. The coastline of Baluchistan is also home to two precious deep-water ports, the Gwadar port of Pakistan and Chabahar port of Iran. If Baluchistan is such a rich and important region the question arises, why Baluchistan is the heart of this conflict?

Basically, the Baloch people in Pakistan feel very marginalized because they face suspicion and discrimination from both Pakistan and Iranian governments. Taking up roughly 44% of Pakistan’s total land area, Baluchistan is the largest, but least developed, of the four provinces in the country. The majority of people live in rural areas, where agriculture is the backbone of the local economy. Four insurgencies, headed by Balochi nationalists, seek increased political rights, autonomy, and sovereignty over their natural resources. They were put down by the army in 1948, 1958–59, 1962–63, and 1973–77. It is estimated there are $1 trillion worth of natural resources are available in region of Baluchistan. The highest rates of poverty there are at 65%. In Iran, 80% of Sistan Baloch people live below poverty line while the national average is just 28%. This is why the Balochi people started revolting against Pakistan and Iran both in peaceful and violent ways. After the 2000s, Baloch nationalist groups such as the Baluchistan Liberation Army started to emerge. They also started battling Pakistan but took shelter in Iran.  Similarly, the Iranian militant group Jaish ul-Adl attacked Iran but took shelter in Pakistan. They also started collaborating for resources and shelter, which added fuel to the fire. While both countries blame each other for not controlling these groups, there are tensions across the borders.

It’s important to note that Iran is not India for Pakistan and that it has always been a cooperative neighborhood. It was also the very first country that recognized Pakistan and has also supported Pakistan in its wars of 1965 and 1971, and is also one of the very few countries that holds a very clear stance on the issue of Kashmir in favor of Pakistan.

These recent attacks by Iran seem more like a manufactured diversion than a strategic move Upon critical evaluation, it becomes evident that states typically act in their self-interest to benefit and safeguard their existence, However, these recent actions by Iran seem counterproductive, as they not only fail to enhance Iran’s position but further weaken its standing in the region and even globally. With Iran already entangled in conflict with the West, it cannot also afford to further exacerbate tensions with Islamic community. When it’s calling out Israel’s brutality in Gaza and Iranian-backed militant groups are attacking Israel, it needs support from the Islamic community.

How did this seemingly contradictory strategy unfold? The existence of a “state within a state” situation in Iran, coupled with potential penetration in the army, may offer insights into the motivations behind these actions. Such internal dynamics, where entities like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps operate independently, could influence foreign policy decisions and contribute to this perplexing situation. The beneficiaries of these situations are evident. Firstly, the United States stands to gain. Increased instability in Iran benefits US interests because of long-standing tensions between the US and Iran, based on issues like Iran’s nuclear development and disputes in the Red Sea. This situation allows the US to shape narratives, exert influence, and potentially advance its geopolitical goals in the region. Furthermore, India may also benefit from this circumstance. The increased instability in Iran offers India an opportunity to exert relentless pressure on Pakistan. India seeks to assert influence and fortify its position in the region by deliberately navigating the geopolitical complications. It intends to take advantage of the internal strife inside Iran to further its goals concerning Pakistan. Lastly, Israel emerges as a significant beneficiary in the current context of the Israel-Gaza conflict and beyond. The turmoil in Iran not only diverts international attention but also weakens a regional competitor capable of nuclear technology. Israel can strengthen its strategic position by taking advantage of Iran’s internal dynamics, which present ongoing security challenges. In addition, amid more geopolitical complexity, Israel has a chance to exert its regional influence, fortify relationships, and define the narrative around the current battle in Gaza.

Despite the uncertainty of whether the Iranian government was actually behind it or not a strong response by Pakistan is justified. It serves to assert its credibility and capability while communicating to the world that Pakistan will never compromise its sovereignty and the security of its people at any cost. A demonstration of strength was severely needed, especially in light of Pakistan’s ongoing disputes with its two neighbors. While maintaining a firm stance, both Pakistan and Iran recognize the impracticality of prolonged hostilities. In the best interest of both nations, diplomacy and negotiations prevailed, underscoring the importance of seeking peaceful resolutions amid complex regional dynamics.

Khola Junaid is an Undergraduate Student of Strategic Studies at the National Defense University (NDU), Islamabad, Pakistan