By Tayyaba Rehan

Introduction: 

" Emerging Threats and Shifting Doctrines in South Asia" is a comprehensive book consisting of seven chapters written by several prominent specialists and edited by Malik Qasim Mustafa, which was launched in Islamabad, Pakistan on August 31, 2023.



This book sheds light on the potential threats and difficulties facing South Asia in the twenty-first century. The book, written by acknowledged geopolitical experts, delves deeply into the region's changing security dynamics, giving critical insights for policymakers, scholars, and general readers. With an emphasis on changing military strategies, technological breakthroughs, and the geopolitical landscape, as well as economic integration measures including regional trade agreements and infrastructure expenditures. "Emerging Threats and Shifting Doctrines in South Asia" is a valuable resource for understanding the complicated and ever-changing security situation.

Chapter 1: India’s pursuit of Ballistic Missile Defence and hypersonic missiles:

Dr Zafar Nawaz has a PhD and an MPhil degree in political science. He is a lecturer at Quaid e Azam University Islamabad who investigates India's relationships with Russia, the United States, and Israel in this respect. This chapter discusses India's initiatives to strengthen its defense capabilities and their potential impact on regional stability. India's Cabinet Committee on Security has approved a $2.5 billion budget for acquiring a medium-range surface-to-air missile system, indicating a considerable investment in air defense. The government is also working on ballistic missiles, hypersonic technology, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. India's strategic partnership with the United States, highlighted by the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA), strengthens its intelligence network. India's pursuit of new weapons and upgrades, such as the BrahMos II missile, demonstrates its determination to improve its defensive capabilities. In response, Pakistan intends to maintain credible deterrence through nuclear retaliation and the development of its own ballistic and cruise missiles. However, India and Pakistan have differing conventional and nuclear military capabilities. India's offensive military stance presents a serious issue because it might conceivably neutralize Pakistan's nuclear arsenal in a first retaliation attack. The chapter indicates that India's pursuit of BMD developments may destabilize the South Asian area, especially considering India and Pakistan's tense relationship. Maintaining regional equilibrium necessitates thoughtful consideration and discussion.

Chapter 2: Shifting Indian nuclear Doctrines: Implications for south Asian Nuclear Deterrence:

This chapter, written by Ms. Ghazala Yasmin Jalil, a research fellow at the Arms Control and Disarmament Centre at ISSI, examines India's probable move from a No First Use (NFU) to a First Use nuclear strategy. The author expresses concern over India's development of superior missile and satellite capabilities, which could erode India and Pakistan's nuclear deterrence. The chapter also underlines the potential of a catastrophic weapons race in the region, given the two countries' different economic capacities. Despite India's declared NFU strategy, contradicting statements from Indian authorities cast doubt about its nuclear position. The chapter provides useful insights into the complicated nuclear processes that influence South Asia's stability. India's development of multiple ballistic missile defense (BMD) systems, multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV) technologies, and nuclear-capable missiles, combined with sophisticated satellite capabilities, raise concerns about deteriorating India-Pakistan nuclear deterrence. The deployment of high-resolution satellites with maximum precision and resolution complicates the geopolitical environment, perhaps leading to a regional stability-instability paradox.

Chapter 3: Continuing Indian military modernization

This chapter, authored by Malik Qasim Mustafa, a founding member of the Arms Control and Disarmament Centre, looks at India's enormous efforts in modernizing its military capabilities. The chapter discusses India's ascension to fourth place among the world's top militaries and its increased military spending over the last decade. The chapter focuses on India's breakthroughs in military technology, such as the upgrade of 49 Mirage aircraft from Mirage-2000H to Mirage-2000-5. India has also received military gear from multiple states, including Su-30MK planes, naval guns, radars, helicopters, T90 tanks, and munitions.

It focuses on India's acquisition of sophisticated military technologies, such as the refurbishment of Mirage planes and agreements with France and Russia for Rafale fighter jets and S-400 missile defense systems. The growing asymmetry between India and Pakistan sparks a weapons race, while Pakistan attempts diplomatic and strategic prudence to manage the situation. Overall, this chapter provides useful information about India's military accomplishments and the implications for regional politics.

Chapter 4: India and Nuclearization of Indian Ocean: Implications for Regional Stability:

In this chapter, Dr. Aqeel, a specialist in nuclear non-proliferation, safety, and security, and Mr. Sufiyan Ullah, a senior research officer specializing in non-proliferation studies, present a comprehensive examination of the Indian Ocean region's rising nuclear advances. The authors emphasize the increasing instability caused by rapid nuclear breakthroughs, particularly in the Indian Ocean, where the presence of India, Pakistan, and China contributes to a difficult trilemma. The United States' efforts to limit China in the Indian Ocean by helping India's nuclear advancements are aggravating tensions and sparking an arms race, threatening bilateral relations. India's emphasis on developing its SSBN (Ship Submersible Ballistic Nuclear) forces, the possibility of revising its No First Use (NFU) policy, and the development of longer-range SLBMs (Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles) with MIRVs (Multiple Independently targetable Re-entry Vehicles) are identified as key areas of concern. This chapter presents a detailed analysis of the growing nuclear dynamics in the Indian Ocean region, shining light on India's nuclear advancements, Pakistan and China's replies, and the broader implications for regional peace and security.

Chapter 5: India’s Space Programme: Doctrine, policies, capabilities and its implications for S.A:

This chapter, written by Dr. Ahmed Khan, a specialist in space security and law, delves into India's rapid use of space technology for dual-use applications. The chapter discusses India's concentration on three important areas of space development: watching the Earth with navigation and telecommunication satellites, developing Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) and anti-satellite weapons, and achieving global scientific and technological significance. The chapter underlines India's long-standing political commitment to excelling in its space program, dating back to Jawaharlal Nehru's goal at the moment of independence. It describes the emergence of India's space institutes, such as ISRO, and the subsequent separation of nuclear and space initiatives by Indian political and military authorities.  Under Modi, India's space program has moved its emphasis toward nationalism and self-sufficiency. The chapter focuses on India's response to the Kargil conflict, in which the US shut down GPS links, prompting India to speed development of its Navigation satellite system and space programs for military use. These changes have resulted in regional instability, particularly in Pakistan and China. India's competitiveness with China in space technology is becoming a security challenge for Pakistan due to excessive weapon development. India's pursuit of BMD and ASAT systems to restrict China, combined with China's own defense improvements, is creating a domino effect in space, increasing concerns about space pollution and debris. Dr. Ahmed Khan's incisive chapter sheds light on India's tremendous breakthroughs in space technology, as well as the consequences for regional security, geopolitical dynamics, and environmental concerns.

Chapter 6: Doctrinal Shift and Developing Trends of Emerging Military Technologies in India: Security Implication for South Asia:

This chapter, written by Ms. Amna Rafiq, a Research Associate at the Arms Control and Disarmament Centre (ACDC) at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI), provides a thorough examination of India's rapid advancements in emerging technologies and their implications for regional power dynamics. The chapter describes India's dramatic move from a threat-based to a capacity-based strategy, emphasizing self-sufficiency and independence in its pursuit of emerging technologies. It focuses on India's amazing advances in a variety of sectors, including artificial intelligence, autonomous weapons systems, sophisticated hypersonic missile technology, cyber, biotechnology, chemical technology, metamaterials, and outer-space technologies.  The chapter also addresses India's relationships with countries such as Russia, the United States, and Israel, which help India's scientific growth. India's ambitions in artificial intelligence, robotics, and investments in numerous military areas, such as biological, chemical, cyber, naval, aircraft, ground warfare, and nuclear technology, are emphasized as critical to positioning India as a significant AI power. These advancements are causing a significant shift in India's military strategy, resulting in a new trinity of outer space, special operations, and cyberspace. The chapter finishes by underlining the serious imbalance produced in the South Asian region, notably in Pakistan, as a result of India's advances, which have pushed Pakistan into an arms race and raised concerns about regional stability and security.

Chapter 7: Lethal Autonomous weapon and state behavior: Global and regional implications for strategic stability

Major General Ausaf Ali's chapter examines Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS) and their significant impact on modern combat and global security dynamics. Major General Ausaf Ali, a decorated officer with a Hilal-e-Imtiaz (Military) and Civil Hilal-e-Imtiaz award, provides vital insights into the technological revolution caused by the advent of LAWS, which has profoundly transformed the nature of combat and sparked an arms race. The chapter delves into LAWS' three categories: human in the loop, human on the loop, and human out of the loop, highlighting the various technologies developed within this domain, such as AI killer bots, miniaturized drones, and advanced integration into cyber, AI, missile, and maritime technologies. Major General Ausaf Ali underlines the potential for LAWS to reduce both nuclear and conventional deterrence, particularly in South Asia, as well as the urgent need for legal agreements and norms governing the use of unmanned technologies. Furthermore, the chapter argues for nations to prioritize confidence-building measures (CBMs) and openness in order to reduce risks and handle potential threats posed by LAWS. Major General Ausaf Ali's perspective highlights the important role of international cooperation and regulation in navigating the problems posed by the rapid evolution of autonomous armed systems.

Conclusion:

The book appears to be an intriguing and informative read, delving into critical issues affecting the current global landscape. The writers' perspectives help to better comprehend the complicated interplay between new technology, security dynamics, and the need for international cooperation and regulation. The chapters cover a wide range of topics, including India's rapid advancements in space technology, its dominance in emerging technologies, and the impact of lethal autonomous weapon systems (LAWS) on global security. The authors, including Dr. Aqeel, Mr. Sufiyan Ullah, Ms. Ghazala Yasmin Jalil,  Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspal, Ms. Amna Rafiq, and Major General Ausaf Ali, conduct in-depth assessments of critical themes, providing unique insights into the technological revolution, regional power dynamics, and the potential impact of unmanned technology.

Overall, the book appears to provide an intriguing and insightful study of a variety of themes, making it a must-read for anybody interested in the intersection of technology, security, and global trends.