Recent Political Ventures

“They call him a strongman. He’s a tough person, smart” said Donald Trump  about Victor Orban during the  September 2024 Presidential debate. Orban, Prime Minister of Hungary, has recently been visiting the US – to see Trump, the Republican CPAC and the Heritage Foundation. Even after making a speech condemning the mixing of the European and Non-European races Orbán was still thought fit to open the 2022 CPAC conference in Texas where Steve Bannon is reported to have described him as “one of the great moral leaders in this world.” At the May 2023 CPAC which actually took place in Hungary the Heritage Foundation President praised Orbán's promotion of Christianity, nationalism, and resistance to ‘Woke’.  More recently Orban has extended his ambitions to World leadership. He talked with President Putin in Moscow in July 2024 about mediating the Ukraine war, contrary to the position of the EU which stated that he had no mandate to represent it, and Ukraine’s position that all parties should be represented in any talks. He then flew to Beijing and discussed China's possible role in mediation. With Trump at Mar-a-Lago he reportedly agreed on the need to mediate despite the lack of authority of either conferee to propose anything. Most recently, and oddly, Orban sent his son to promote economic and military cooperation with the African nation of Chad.

This paper looks at the objective facts underlying the Orban phenomenon. It does not contribute any more thoughts on the pathology of the American Right, but tries to assess the realism rather than the rationale for this unusual cult-in-the-making.

Does Hungary Have The Capacity To Be A Broker In World Disputes?

In considering Orban’s hopes of World leadership let’s examine the credentials not only of Orban but of Hungary itself in brokering global events. Hungary’s status in the modern world has in fact been mainly that of a client State. After a lengthy period of division between Christians and Ottoman Muslims, Hungary came under Austrian Habsburg  domination at the end of the 17th century and only achieved a degree of parity by the late 19th century within an  Austro-Hungarian monarchy. This provided it with a role in European politics but the opportunity ended when Hungary lost most of its historical territory and population at the end of the First World War. It allied with the Nazis in World War Two and then became a satellite state of the Soviet Union. The Hungarian revolution of 1956 was crushed by Soviet military force and it remained within the Eastern Bloc until the collapse of Soviet power in 1989. Finally it became a democratic republic, joined NATO in 1999 and the European Union in 2004. Thus, within modern history Hungary has overall not played a significant international role.

Orban entered politics at law school and helped to set up the Fidesz movement  (Alliance of Young Democrats). A Fidesz newspaper that he also helped to set up was funded by the Hungarian Hedge Fund magnate George Soros. Soros also funded him for a scholarship at Oxford. Orban at that time identified as a radical-liberal democrat, aligned with the general student opposition to the Soviet order. He first came to national attention in 1989 when he  made a speech at the anniversary of the Hungarian Revolution demanding the withdrawal of Soviet troops. However, as the president of Fidesz from 1993, he started to move to the right.  In 1998 at age 35 he became Prime Minister as head of a conservative coalition government. In 2010, he returned as Prime minister and by this time his political positions were assuming a clear anti-democratic flavor.

As leader of a Government with a comfortable parliamentary majority Orban was able  to implement an anti-liberal agenda to subvert the press, weaken judicial independence, undermine the party system, and block progressive social reforms, declaring himself a defender of Christian values within the EU, repudiating liberal positions on e.g. multiculturalism, ethnic inclusion, migration and the family. He  forced the closure of the Central European University in Hungary,  founded in 1991 to support democracy and human rights by George Soros, Orban’s erstwhile benefactor, whose work he now sought to destroy. These political adventures proceeded against a background of opposition to EU policies despite Hungary’s  acceptance of significant EU economic aid, some of which is reported to have been channeled to political allies and relatives. For these reasons Orban’s Fidesz party was suspended from the European People's Party (the largest party in the European Parliament) in 2021. 

Do The Society And Economy Of Hungary Justify It As A Model For World Social Or Economic Governance?

Extreme sections of the US Right, in their yearning for  ideological champions, apparently see Orban and Hungary as a legitimate model for how the US should be governed. But Hungary differs from the US to an extreme degree on many dimensions, including its size, its demography, cultural cohesion, political system and economy.

Firstly, Hungary’s population is relatively rural compared to other industrialized societies, with 25% or more of its population living outside urban areas. Total land area is only about 1% of that of the US, the same size as the State of Indiana, and it is landlocked. The Hungarian economy is tiny compared with that of the US and its per capita GDP is one quarter of the US average. Despite 15 years of reforms under Orban Hungary's GDP per capita also still ranks significantly below the EU average and accounts for only about 1.2% of the EU's total GDP.

Its recent economic performance has been about average for the EU Eastern States, lagging behind former soviet satellites such as the Czech Republic, Poland and Romania. Progress has been halting, with a burst of inflation in 2023 due to fiscal excesses accompanied by a contraction in GDP. As mentioned, Hungary also relies significantly on EU development funds, to the tune of 2 to 3% of its GDP. Other Eastern European countries have apparently been able to recover more effectively from the legacy of Soviet domination.

Hungary had an impressive history of scientific development in the 19th century with the creation of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and the emergence of major scientists. There is however little connection between this and Orban’s ‘illiberal  democracy’ which has encouraged Hungarian scientists to emigrate. While Orban may have achieved success with a broad set of authoritarian economic and social reforms after 2010 these developments have not assisted with problems like emigration.

Its ageing population has been declining steadily during the various periods that Orban has been in office, falling from 10.2 million to about 9.5 million or less than 3% of the population of the US which stands at  335 million. This number is about  the same as the population of the State of Michigan or of Los Angeles County, so it is not hard to imagine that the complexities of Government might be correspondingly much less than those of the US. Hungary’s more recent population decline is due largely to the mass emigration of 600,000 or more people, the majority of whom were educated, and under 40 years old.  About one third of Hungarian citizens live abroad, not a signal of social or economic achievement.

The population within Hungary is relatively homogenous, with about 90% ethnic Hungarians and the rest mainly originating from Europe. This is of course completely different from the US with its highly diverse population and large scale immigration. While the US faces a serious problem of immigration Hungary faces a serious problem of emigration. Orban is trying to rebuild its population through State social welfare payments  to large families while still barring ‘non-Europeans’ from entering. The diametrically opposite demographic situation might be expected to result in a far less divisive society than exists in the US with fewer problems for a Government to deal with. In particular, Hungary’s single chamber legislative system, which allows quicker decisions probably favoring authoritarian rule, differs drastically from the US system of complex checks and balances. 

Orban’s anti-democratic, reactionary program in fact seems not inconsistent with the legacy of Hungary’s ‘socialist’ past in ways that could well unpleasantly surprise the American Right if they were actually aware of them, which is doubtful. These include  universal health care, almost fully public education, strict gun control, and relatively liberal abortion laws (along with a recent rapid increase in out-of-wedlock births).

The Ambiguous Relationship With Russia

For many Hungarians the relationship with Russia must be forever scarred by the brutal Soviet invasion of 1956 and yet Hungary is being steered by its leader in the direction of Russian interests and away from those of Europe. In 1956, 150,000 Soviet troops invaded the country. Reportedly, over 20,000 Hungarians were killed or injured in the assault and thousands imprisoned. Orban, born in 1963, is too young to remember but that event is surely ingrained in the memory of older Hungarians, as will be Russia’s current assault in the memory of Ukrainians. Yet at the UN Annual Meeting of September 2024 the Hungarian delegate seemed to effectively ignore the historic Russian invasion of his country while expecting Ukraine to accept the invasion of theirs. How can Hungary justify trying to lead  the charge for stronger European links with Russia while denying the national aspirations of Ukraine in the face of attack by Russia?

What Does This All Mean For America’s Right Wing

Why have so many Americans on the Right aspired to follow the ideology of the head of a small European state with irrelevant global experience and ambiguous social policies? Authoritarian rule may in fact be easier to establish in Hungary than in the US. Indeed, Governing such a country may be not much more complicated than governing Michigan. But we should ask ourselves what justifies the need for a small and culturally and ethnically homogeneous country with a simple unicameral governance system to be ruled by an autocrat?  At the same time how unlikely is it that Orban’s ideas on governance can provide a model for the US, with its vastly larger, wealthier, more competitive, diverse, and successful economy, and an extensive history of global leadership.  Don’t the American followers of Mr. Orban have any appreciation of all this? And if not maybe they should seek to be further educated rather than following a delusional authoritarian ideology which would seriously undermine America’s credibility in the pursuit of human rights and the rule of law, and damage further its global influence.