American political scientist John Mearsheimer claimed that Israel has entangled the United States and Iran in a war. On October 1, Iran directly targeted Tel Aviv with 180 ballistic missiles, thus continuing its conflict and heightening geopolitical tensions with Israel. That was not a standalone attack: In April 2024, Iran launched multiple drones and cruise missiles at Israel. But none of these threats succeeded in reaching Israeli territory due to the country’s sophisticated Iron Dome defense system. On this occasion, however, a few rockets struck in the central and southern parts of the country and some Israelis were injured by shrapnel in Tel Aviv.

However, Iran’s recent attack was reciprocative in nature rather than proactive and unmotivated. The strike on April 4 was a reaction to an attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria by Israel. Then, in July, Israel’s military and security networks assassinated Ismail Haniyeh, a senior Hamas operative in Tehran, and also Hassan Nasrallah, Secretary-General of Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy group.

With the ramping up of escalation, an intense international debate is unfolding: Is it possible for this regional conflict to extend further, even to a World War III scale?

Contextualizing the conflict:

Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been a longstanding issue since 1948 and arguably even before then with the signing of the Balfour Declaration in 1917. The October 7 attack, in which 251 hostages were taken by Hamas, is the fifth war in the Gaza-Israel conflict since 2008. Throughout the conflict, violence has not ceased from the Israeli side. More than 42,000 Palestinians have been killed in the Gaza strip, thousands have been injured, and millions affected by Israeli actions. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s Prime Minister, has not stopped there; he has now sent troops into Lebanon, using the convenient method of ‘de-escalation through escalation’ to disrupt Tehran’s leadership which he believes funds and supports Hamas and Hezbollah.

The recent conflict in Lebanon was marked by the recent Israeli intelligence service cyberattack that caused communication devices to detonate, killing at least 32 people. Previously Israel has invaded Lebanon in 1978 and 1982, occupied its southern region in 2000 and engaged in armed conflict in 2006. Unfortunately, the USA, the country that labels itself as a leader of liberal democracy and a protector of human rights, has deployed thousands of troops to Kuwait, Bahrain and other regions in the Middle East as part of its gunboat diplomacy efforts to support Israel. This support from Western states has encouraged the state of Israel to act unprocedurally and breach international law.

In this aggression, Israel killed Ismail Haniyeh, leader of Hamas, on July 31, 2024 in Tehran. few days ago, an Israeli air strike also killed Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s commander-in-chief since 1992. After the deaths of both leaders, Iran received pressure from both its citizens and international partners to prevent retaliation, but went ahead with its barrage of missile strikes.  

Is there potential for further escalation to WWIII?

While conflict between Israel, Hamas and Iranian proxy groups has prompted more aggressive and violent strategies on a wider geographic scale, several reasons suggest that this conflict will not escalate to an international conflict.

In both the World Wars, escalation was due to the presence of an alliance system. In the first World War, the Triple Alliance partners were Germany, Austria, Hungary, and Italy; on the other hand, the Triple Entente partners were England, France, and Russia. World War II featured the Allied powers, which are a group of countries such as the United Kingdom, Soviet Union, United States, and China on one side, and the Axis powers, composed of Germany, Italy, and Japan opposing them. In the current conflict in the Middle East, however, there is no extended system of alliances to convert a local war into a world war. While a longstanding alliance exists between the United States and Israel, President Biden has pushed for a de-escalation of tensions in the region. For example, by endorsing a ceasefire, greater diplomacy between Israel and Hamas, and opposing Israeli strikes on nuclear targets. This may dampen escalation risks.

Many International Relations scholars argue that despite US and European support Israel through providing equipment and intelligence, China and Russia may decide to back Iran in order to spite and oppose the US. Furthermore, China has stakes in Iran as a partner for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). But with so much at stake, it does not want to participate in a conflict that may hinder its long-term economic plans. China has strongly opposed Israel’s ‘collective punishment’ of Palestinians, departing from its call for all sides to simply exercise restrain, but will likely not intervene directly as it has key interests on the Indo-Pacific region. Wider conflict may destabilize these geopolitical interests and assets.

During the Cold War, Russia was suspicious of Israel and built relationships with the Palestinian Liberation Organization. Through the 1990s, Russia supported a two-state solution, but also developed ties with Israel. Recently, Russia failed to condemn the October 7 attack and enjoys a close reliance with Iran. This historically changing approach has given way to more explicit support for Palestine. While its diplomatic approach has certainly changed, Putin is already waging a  war in Ukraine. This ongoing conflict has taken up significant efforts and resources for Russia, so it is unlikely Russia will interfere in the Iran-Israel conflict.

Iran itself does not need this war to escalate any further since it is already burdened by the economic embargos, travel bans and economic sanctions by the United States, European Union and other states. The Iranian government is fully cognizant that escalation would only worsen Tehran’s economic situation and possibly invite worse sanctions from Western powers and the Global South.

The United Nations Security Council held an emergency session on October 2, 2024 to discuss the escalating conflict with urgency. If this war continues, not only will the human toll continue to rise, but other geopolitical impacts will likely be severe. These include rising oil prices, food insecurity and increased migration. While an escalation of the conflict to a global scale seems doubtful, the regional situation could deteriorate to such an extent that it sparks major humanitarian problems.  The formation of a peaceful conflict resolution by the international community is crucial.

Jai Kumar is a graduate of International Relations from the University of Sindh.