The Islamic State is considered these days as the biggest threat to global security. Different attacks have been carried out recently by this terrorist organization everywhere and against different targets: In France, U.S. Belgium, Turkey, and Middle-Eastern countries as well. This organization seems stronger day after day, and it seems unbeatable as well.
But appearances are deceiving, This terrorist organization is falling now, due to multiple strategic and structural mistakes made by this organization. In this article, 10 causes are presented that will push the Islamic State to collapse rapidly.
1- No permanent friend, many enemies:
Since the emergence of the terrorist organization called The Islamic State in Iraq and Sham–ISIS (this name changed after its expansion in North Africa and Europe to:The Islamic State – IS) in June 2014, IS terrorists started to fight against several enemies at the same time: countries,organizations, and racial groups.
The first flagrant enemy of IS was the Syrian regime of Bechir Al-Assad’s: the authoritarian regime that has been receiving aids and all forms of support from its historical allies: Iran and Russia, and from the Lebanese Shiite organization,:Hizbullah.
The terrorist group attacked other racial groups like the Yazidis (a religious minority group living in the northwest of Iraq, with more than 50,000 believers).In addition, the Kurds in Iraq and Syria especially.
As this organization has become the number one enemy of a large number of parties (States, Groups, Organizations) in the Middle East, IS finds itself in a precarious position.
2- Targeting the great powers:
Threating the great powers interests in Middle East is a mistake. IS targeted the US through ISIS-inspired attacks on US soil: Boston in April 15, 2013, and recently June 12, 2016 Orlando nightclub shooting with 49 dead. Russia, another great power in the world politics, is one of the biggest targeted powers by IS, because of its support for the Syrian regime; and especially, because of air strikes launched at the end of 2015 against IS terrorist camps in Syria and Iraq. France has also been a scene of IS attacks: in November 2015 several attacks in Paris caused the death of more than 100 persons. These attacks were considered as one of the worst attacks in the history of this country. Belgium has also suffered from IS massacres: the airport and the metro station of the capital of this quiet and peaceful country was the scene of IS attacks in March 22, 2016, killing more than 30.
So, IS goes global, the globe is against IS.
3- Semi-friends became new enemies:
Turkey a special country in the Middle East that is accused by the Syrian regime and its allies as providing financial and military support for IS. It receives the largest portion of refugees from Syria and Iraq and other countries since the starting of The Arab spring in 2011, and which pursued the 0 enemies strategy mentioned by Ahmed Davutoglu, the former Prime Minister of Turkey in his book, Strategic Depth. However, Turkey is targeted as well by IS terrorists recently. In June 2016, the Ataturk Airport was attacked, killing more than 40 persons and wounding more than 200.
This potential member of the European Union, which focused in the past on the elimination of the PKK forces (Kurdistan workers party forces), must unfortunately revise its regional agenda.
4- The same beard, but different ideologies:
For different Ideological reasons; IS didn’t only target the Infidels but attacked other Jihadist Groups in Syria as well. For instance : Jabhat al-Nusra,the branch of the terrorist organization Al-Qaeda in Syria, Jaysh_al-Islam, another radical Jihadist group; and other groups as well, are still fighting IS, even if all of their members put a long beard!
5- Reliance on sectarian speech:
Since the appearance of IS, its members have adopted sectarian speech against other groups which exist in the region: the Allawite "infidel" regime in Syria led by Bashir Al-Assad, the Shiite regime of Iran which supports unconditionally Al-Assad’s regime, and the Hizbullah Shiite group which supports the Syrian regime. According to IS members and supporters , these groups and parties belong to the Shiite big project in the region led by Iran,this country presents the first and the big enemy of the Sunnite Jihadist party led by ISIS.
This sectarian division could bring us a potential new 30 Years War. This potential war risks to inflame the region with a zero-sum game, where no one will win, and all the parties will lose, and this will severely affect the image of Islam in the world.
6- Creativity and innovation in the methods of murder:
The diversification of murder methods, professional production of the ISIS videos, and the language and the tone used in ISIS videos make us sure that we are facing a new Age of Terrorism. This new form terrorism shows videos of suicide bombings, murders, hostage-taking, and more. Luckily, as they are full of inhumanity, savagery, and hate, these videos do not receive support from anyone.
If IS’ members think that they are spreading fear and terror around the world, they are completely wrong. They are actually spreading solidarity of all humanity against their brutality.
7- Using a random expansion strategy:
When an IS member published a video of slaughtering Egyptian Coptics in February 2015, he threatened European countries, especially Italy that the IS will attack and colonize Rome. Other terrorists promised that they will occupy soon American lands, and others promised that France would be a part of IS territories.
It is hard to imagine that, but after its expansion in Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Egypt, ISI started to draw an imaginary land, in which the IS perception of Islam is the established religion in all the world, and all other religions, racial groups, ideologies would be exterminated.
Unfortunately, IS still believes that its followers will invade New York, Paris, Rome, Washington, and other cities.
8- One organization, different ideologies:
There is a misperception that IS members are unified and homogeneous. Since the emergence of the Islamic State in Iraq and Sham in June 2014, a larger number of Iraqi citizens (especially in Al-Fallujah and Al-Mosul) and Syrian citizens in Raqqa, pledged allegiance to ISIS However, it should be noted that Iraqi and Syrian citizens were oppressed and tyrannized by their authorities. For instance, Al-Fallujah and Al-Mosul citizens were suffering from discrimination, poor economic development, and sectarian persecution from Al-Maliki Shiite regime (because the majority of Al-Fallujah and Al-Mosul citizens are Sunni).
For Syria, every citizen was looking for an authority that could establish security and fight the Syrian authoritarian regime, regardless of its religion, or its political view, which explains the fast expansion of ISIS in Syria as well.
So, IS’ members and supporters were not falling in love with this organization. Just the opposite, this organization carries the seeds of its own destruction.
9- Saudi Arabia does not support IS:
Those who accuse Saudi Arabia of supporting IS should rebuild their views because Saudi Arabia has never supported this criminal organization. Saudi Arabia, which is considered as the first and the biggest exporter of, IS terrorists, because of its sectarian discourse full of hate and violence is changing.
Due to the historical expansion of Iran in the region, the Russian military intervention in Iraq and Syria, and the US-Iran rapprochement, Saudi Arabia decided to change its strategy; by the intervention of its military forces in Yemen, and especially by the potential intervention of its ground forces in Syria to fight IS, and to hamper the progression of Iraq and Russia in this country.
Another economic reason stands up behind the Saudi new strategy: the falling of oil prices in the international market; Saudi Arabia will focus on its internal affairs, by launching its ambitious economic program 2030 strategy; in order to overcome this economic crisis.
10- No relationship between Islam and IS crimes:
Unfortunately, one of the prevalent ideas in the world is that there is a strong relationship between IS terrorist acts and Islam. The main argument on this view is simply the name of this organization group: The Islamic State.
To answer to this, We bring you the 32nd verse of chapter 5 (surat l-maidah) of the Quran: Because of that, We decreed upon the Children of Israel that whoever kills a soul unless for a soul or for corruption done in the land – it is as if he had slain mankind entirely. And whoever saves one – it is as if he had saved mankind entirely.
Less than 20,000 terrorists don’t represent more than a billion Muslims in the world, who condemn ISIS’ barbaric acts, those Muslims who are victims as well of the terrorist attacks every day and everywhere: in Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and in different other places.
Through this list, I have tried to list reasons that will push the Islamic State terrorist organization rapidly. These causes encompass different aspects : External, internal, and structural aspects, including the mistakes committed by the organization such as: targeting multiple countries and parties, transforming potential friends into enemies, Believing in a radical and an extremist ideology, and using horrible methods to kill civilians…etc. We concluded that this terrorist organization will fall rapidly because of these reasons, and that the surprising big expansion of IS in the Middle East will not continue.
Hichem Daoud El ghandja a is a PhD student of International Studies at the School of Political sciences of Algiers - Algeria, He has participated in national and international symposiums and conferences in Tunisia, Turkey, and Algeria. He is currently finishing publication of a book on the religious aspect of Iranian foreign Policy towards Iraq 2003-2013,
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| Very nice analyse and expectation to the situation in the near future
We wish peace to the whole world
thank you hishem